Gaddafi

Gaddafi has vowed to die rather than step down. He has gone out and hired mercenaries to put down the protestors. While the protestors have taken over Benghazi, Gaddafi still controls Tripoli as well as the military. If the military should stop following Gaddafi’s orders, he can still use the mercenaries to control Tripoli. Civil war is the likely outcome or Gaddafi’s assassination.

This seems a far cry from the bloodless coup d’état Gaddafi lead taking over power from King Idris. He added the title of prime minister in 1970, but gave up this title in 1972. Unlike some other military revolutionaries, Gaddafi did not promote himself to the rank of general upon seizing power, but rather accepted a ceremonial promotion from captain to colonel and has remained at this rank since then. While at odds with Western military ranking for a colonel to rule a country and serve as Commander-in-Chief of its military, in Gaddafi's own words Libya's society is "ruled by the people", so he needs no more grandiose title or supreme military rank.

Gaddafi followed a form of Arab nationalism he called “Islamic Socialism”. Basically there was still private ownership over smaller companies but the state controlled larger corporations. In 1977, Gaddafi proclaimed that Libya was changing its form of government from a republic to a "jamahiriya" – a neologism that means "mass-state" or "government by the masses". He has used death squads in the past to assassinate dissidents.

Secretary Clinton stated this is completely unacceptable with about as much passion as if she said the walls need to be repainted. I suspected the situation in North Africa and Middle East has worn her out. There is also the very real possibility that the Saud family, who rule Saudi Arabia, will be facing the same challenges in the not too distant future. If so, $4.00 a gallon for gas will seem like a steal.

Libya warplanes bombing Tripoli: resident

Apprently Gaddafi isn't going to allow a repeat of the results in Benghazi. Clearly the situation is worsening but I'm not sure I agree that it means Gaddafi is weakening (at least not yet). The million dollar question for the rest of the world, what will happen in Saudi Arabia?

Libya warplanes bombing Tripoli: resident

Protests, a study in contrasts

A study in contrasts; the protests in North Africa and the Middle East contrasted with the protests in Wisconsin and Ohio.

"Libyan protesters celebrated in the streets of Benghazi on Monday, claiming control of the country's second largest city after bloody fighting, and anti-government unrest spread to the capital with clashes in Tripoli's main square for the first time. Moammar Gadhafi's son vowed that his father and security forces would fight "until the last bullet."


The pan-Islamism protests cover the gamut from the oppression of Mubarak to the progressive monarch of Morocco. The constant is the protests are continuing to spread.

Contrasted with the protests against efforts to end collective bargaining for state employees:

"After six days of protests that packed the state capitol, Wisconsin's major teachers' union called on members to start returning to work Monday but keep fighting a proposed rollback of union protections for public employees."

The passion for change between the two regions is remarkably different. Some may argue that the protests in the Middle East are about disposing oppression which fuels a higher level of passion. Perhaps, but isn't defeating efforts of government to end collective bargaining similar in principle? To those that say "no" let's look at France back in November:

"AIR passengers in France are facing up to five days of disruption later this week, as two separate strikes affect flights.

Four trade unions have called on airline and airport workers to walk out on Thursday, November 4, to keep up the protest against pension reforms.

The strike will be immediately followed by a four-day walkout from November 5-8 by French airline pilots, cabin crew and airport staff."


I point out the contrasts between the two protests for I suspect things have a potential for turning ugly here in the US. There is much resentment on both sides of the political spectrum. The attempt to end collective bargaining is seen by many as an attempt at union-busting. Such attempts in the past have resulted in violence. The US seems to have more pacifistic in regards to violent strikes but with a stalled economy, no jobs, decreasing home ownership and no immediate prospect for recovery, the potential is there for the US to follow the pan-Islamist model of rage.

Libya

Moroccan protesters call for curbs on king’s powers

Pan-Islamism has now spread West to Morocco;

"Several hundred Moroccan demonstrators, some waving Tunisian and Egyptian flags, have staged a rare protest in the Moroccan capital of Rabat to demand restrictions on the king’s powers and an end to corruption. Analysts say Morocco, with a reformist monarch who is widely respected, and a growing economy, is one of the Arab countries least likely to succumb to the wave of protests sweeping the region."


Meanwhile in Libya, Gaddafi's sons are putting down protests in Benghazi (one son was trained by the Soviet military meaning his tactics will be brutal and to the point). Unlike other monarchs in the region, Gaddafi resolve has not diminished. Gaddafi has made many moves over the years to insure he remained in power (from knocking off the WMD rhetoric to handing over the Lockerbie bombing suspects). He also has made the business of running Libya a family affair.

Morocco and Libya are studies in opposites. Gaddafi has ruled through secrecy and using his sons in leading roles. Morocco has a progressive monarch and a growing economy. Nonetheless, both countries have to deal with the pervasive pan-Islamism that seeks to subjugate nationalism with Islamic law.

Morocco
Libya

Pan-Islamism

The concept for pan-Islamism, unification of all Muslims under a single state, dates back to Muhammad and the early caliphates. In more recent times, pan-Islamism was a way to fight the European colonial powers. After World War II, Arab nationalism began to replace pan-Islamism.

The problem is not all countries, notably Iran, are Arabic (Iranians consider themselves Persians). Arab nationalism created secular political parties such as the Baath (the part of Saddam Hussein). The pan-Arab parties called for unity and the rebirth of the Arab world (something the Persians, Kurds and other non-Arab groups had trouble identifying with). If this were not enough to cause problems, the secular pan-Arab groups oppressed the Islamists. Sayyid Qutb, the leading theologian who helped found the Muslim brotherhood, was imprisoned, tortured and executed by the pan-Arabic movement.

Pan-Islamism began to resurface after the defeat of the Arab nationalists during the Six-Day War. Pan-Islamism became the dominant movement once Ayatollah Khoemeni took over in Iran and the Afghani Mujahadeen defeated the Soviets.

The protests that we are now seeing are actually the culmination of a movement that has existed for many centuries. Tunisia and Algeria were already had governments that were sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt had made several mistakes. First, Mubarak outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood which in effect outlawed pan-Islamism. Second, he saw himself as a pharoah and started to deny Egyptians access to their most sacred and holy temples. Third, he was seen as an ally of Israel and the United States. Taken together, all three of these factors made it almost inevitable that Mubarak would be ousted.

Now Bahrain has a similar problem in that it is home to the US Navy's 7th Fleet. The Associted Press reports, "Thousands of funeral mourners called for the downfall of Bahrain's ruling monarchy as burials began Friday after a deadly assault on pro-reform protesters that has brought army tanks into the streets of the most strategic Western ally in the Gulf.

The cries against Bahrain's king and his inner circle reflect an escalation of the demands from a political uprising that began by only asking for a weakening of the Sunni monarchy's hold on top government posts and addressing discrimination by the Shiite majority in the tiny island nation.

The mood, however, appears to have turned toward defiance of the entire ruling system after the brutal attack Thursday on a protest encampment in Bahrain's capital Manama, which left at least five dead, more than 230 injured and put the nation under emergency-style footing with military forces in key areas and checkpoints on main roadways."

Now Yemen is having an uprising. Yemen has been a hotbed of pan-Islamism for a number of years resulting in the USS Cole bombing and training of terrorists such as Abdulmuttalab (the underwear bomber). According to Fox News, "Yemeni riot police in the capital shot dead a protester and injured five others on Saturday when they opened fire on thousands marching in the 10th day of unrest rocking the country.

Protesters began marching early in the morning from the University of Sanaa to the Ministry of Justice while chanting, "the people want the fall of the regime," until they were met by riot police and supporters of the president."

Looking at the map, it is easy see why Jordan, Qatar, Libya, Morocco have all experience protests. In Oman, about 300 people demanded political reforms and better pay in a peaceful protest in Oman on Friday as unrest in other Middle East countries and North Africa turned increasingly violent.

The United States has few options to quell this movement. Our appearance of supporting "democracy" are actually helping to install religious ideologues who will run things based on Islamic law. No, I am not one of those haters who sees Islam as evil. What I do see is a huge movement taking over a large portion of the world and the US government doesn't seem to really understand what it is looking at.

U.S. Military Interests at Stake in Bahraini Unrest

According to the CIA Factbook: In 1783, the al-Khalifa family captured Bahrain from the Persians. In order to secure these holdings, it entered into a series of treaties with the UK during the 19th century that made Bahrain a British protectorate. The archipelago attained its independence in 1971. Bahrain has turned to petroleum processing and refining and has transformed itself into an international banking center. King HAMAD bin Isa al-Khalifa, after coming to power in 1999, pushed economic and political reforms to improve relations with the Shia community. Shia political societies participated in 2010 parliamentary and municipal elections. Al Wifaq, the largest Shia political society, won the largest number of seats in the elected chamber of the legislature. However, Shia discontent has resurfaced in recent years with street demonstrations and occasional low-level violence.

Bahrain is also relatively progressive, allowing Western tourists to engage in such inappropriate behaviors as sunbathing (with members of the opposite sex) and the consumption of alcohol. These policies as well as strategic location made Bahrain an ideal location for the US Navy's 5th Fleet. The US Navy 5th Fleet is responsible for naval forces in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and coast off East Africa as far south as Kenya.

The 5th Fleet operates at least one aircraft carrier in the Gulf at all times, along with an "amphibious ready group" of ships with Marines aboard. Their presence is central to a longstanding U.S. commitment to ensuring the free flow of oil through the Gulf, while keeping an eye on a hostile Iran and seeking to deter piracy in the region.

Now unrest that started in Tunisia and spread to Algeria and Egypt has spread to Bahrain, as a result the US military may directly face protesters.

It appears for now the Bahrain, along with backing from Saudi Arabia, maybe able to handle the protests. However, if the situation escalates the protesters may create more foreign policy challenges for the US in the region.

Article Here

CBS’s Logan suffered ‘brutal’ attack in Egypt

A press pass does not make you immune to the situation around you. I am sorry this lady was attacked and sexually assaulted but she went there knowing that it was a revolution. The Egyptians saw the US as a Mubarak supporter making very dangerous for American news crews.

Ever since Dan Rather went to Afghanistan in the 80s and narrated the Mujhadeen fighting the Soviets, reporters seem to think their "duty" to report the event creates a separation from the event. It like when you take a picture, it is easy to forget you are still present in the reality of whatever you are photographing.

Embedding reporters during Iraqi Freedom further emboldened reporters that they could report from the front lines with the protection of US forces. Unfortunately there were no friendly forces to protect Ms. Logan and her crew (Anderson Cooper got smacked around earlier as did a Fox News crew). But getting the story caused Logan and her crew to remain.

"In the crush of the mob, she was separated from her crew," the statement continued. "She was surrounded and suffered a brutal and sustained sexual assault and beating before being saved by a group of women and an estimated 20 Egyptian soldiers."

Though wretched and disturbing, at least Ms. Logan's story did not end like Daniel Pearl who was beheaded after his capture in Pakistan. The United States does not have a great reputation in many countries and the locals will take it out on Americans overseas, especially unarmed members of the media.

Article Here