Pan-Islamism

The concept for pan-Islamism, unification of all Muslims under a single state, dates back to Muhammad and the early caliphates. In more recent times, pan-Islamism was a way to fight the European colonial powers. After World War II, Arab nationalism began to replace pan-Islamism.

The problem is not all countries, notably Iran, are Arabic (Iranians consider themselves Persians). Arab nationalism created secular political parties such as the Baath (the part of Saddam Hussein). The pan-Arab parties called for unity and the rebirth of the Arab world (something the Persians, Kurds and other non-Arab groups had trouble identifying with). If this were not enough to cause problems, the secular pan-Arab groups oppressed the Islamists. Sayyid Qutb, the leading theologian who helped found the Muslim brotherhood, was imprisoned, tortured and executed by the pan-Arabic movement.

Pan-Islamism began to resurface after the defeat of the Arab nationalists during the Six-Day War. Pan-Islamism became the dominant movement once Ayatollah Khoemeni took over in Iran and the Afghani Mujahadeen defeated the Soviets.

The protests that we are now seeing are actually the culmination of a movement that has existed for many centuries. Tunisia and Algeria were already had governments that were sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt had made several mistakes. First, Mubarak outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood which in effect outlawed pan-Islamism. Second, he saw himself as a pharoah and started to deny Egyptians access to their most sacred and holy temples. Third, he was seen as an ally of Israel and the United States. Taken together, all three of these factors made it almost inevitable that Mubarak would be ousted.

Now Bahrain has a similar problem in that it is home to the US Navy's 7th Fleet. The Associted Press reports, "Thousands of funeral mourners called for the downfall of Bahrain's ruling monarchy as burials began Friday after a deadly assault on pro-reform protesters that has brought army tanks into the streets of the most strategic Western ally in the Gulf.

The cries against Bahrain's king and his inner circle reflect an escalation of the demands from a political uprising that began by only asking for a weakening of the Sunni monarchy's hold on top government posts and addressing discrimination by the Shiite majority in the tiny island nation.

The mood, however, appears to have turned toward defiance of the entire ruling system after the brutal attack Thursday on a protest encampment in Bahrain's capital Manama, which left at least five dead, more than 230 injured and put the nation under emergency-style footing with military forces in key areas and checkpoints on main roadways."

Now Yemen is having an uprising. Yemen has been a hotbed of pan-Islamism for a number of years resulting in the USS Cole bombing and training of terrorists such as Abdulmuttalab (the underwear bomber). According to Fox News, "Yemeni riot police in the capital shot dead a protester and injured five others on Saturday when they opened fire on thousands marching in the 10th day of unrest rocking the country.

Protesters began marching early in the morning from the University of Sanaa to the Ministry of Justice while chanting, "the people want the fall of the regime," until they were met by riot police and supporters of the president."

Looking at the map, it is easy see why Jordan, Qatar, Libya, Morocco have all experience protests. In Oman, about 300 people demanded political reforms and better pay in a peaceful protest in Oman on Friday as unrest in other Middle East countries and North Africa turned increasingly violent.

The United States has few options to quell this movement. Our appearance of supporting "democracy" are actually helping to install religious ideologues who will run things based on Islamic law. No, I am not one of those haters who sees Islam as evil. What I do see is a huge movement taking over a large portion of the world and the US government doesn't seem to really understand what it is looking at.

A Lesson from Tunisia

While the world watches Egypt morph into a post-Mubarak regime, the country that started it all remains almost forgotten a month later. Tunisia is an interesting study for a number of reasons that have nothing to do with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Tunisia had economically developed well under Zine El Abidine Ben Ali ranking 81st out of 169 according to the United Nations Development Program human development index measurement.

Unemployment is running 13-14% compared to the US 9.8% (Jan 2011) doesn’t seem that high. So what got everybody steamed at Ben Ali?

Tunisia produces more college graduates than jobs. The unemployment rate is much higher in Tunisia amongst college graduates, especially those under 25.

According to the blog “Teaching College English”, an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 university graduates enter the job market every year. Fifty-seven percent of young Tunisians entering the labor market are college educated.

Unfortunately Ben Ali could not keep his promise to create 300,000 new jobs for all of the college graduates. Furthermore, Ben Ali did not make it possible for Tunisians to easily emigrate. It may have prevented brain drain but it left a highly educated population of disenfranchised young people without jobs.

NPR ran a piece this morning where a young Tunisian woman with a graduate degree was lamenting the only work she could find was at a call center. Several of her relatives, also with graduate degrees, have been without work for months.

The case in Tunisia makes me wonder what the future holds for the United States. We continue to puke out thousands and thousands of graduates from our colleges and universities every year. Yet do we have the capacity to employ these well-educated young people?

Unlike Tunisia, our graduates can emigrate to find work. Many college graduates find work in fields unrelated to their degrees, often doing work that doesn’t require an advanced degree.

I’ve pondered on this blog before about the need to revamp our secondary education system to where people are able to find work upon graduation, at something higher than minimum wage.

Let’s look at a typical four-degree. The average cost for a public four-year college is probably about $50,000. In comparison, a private four-year college may cost $80,000 to $120,000. Much of the courses they will take will have little to nothing to do with their job (quick, how many of you got jobs because you knew the difference between Descartes and Hobbes?).

Most of these graduates will go to work already in debt from student loans. They will require salaries that will allow them to start paying their debts off. At the same time they will have to try to pay for a place to live, a car, food, and a family if they have one. The costs associated with attracting these pricey entry-level workers are passed on to the customer or client.

In comparison, those with only a high school diploma may only be able to find a minimum wage job. Even though they have no debt, and hence require less financial incentives employers, they will face little to no chance for upward mobility. Minimum wage jobs will not allow people to pay for the cost of raising a family.

Most high school graduates who do not intend to go to college do well by going to a career center and earning some type of certification. It allows them to earn more than minimum wage and in the case of technical fields (such as machinist), they will eventually out earn their baccalaureate colleagues.

President Obama has been pushing job creation but none of his plans talk about how he intends to use the surplus of college graduates. Governor Kasich is also all about putting Ohioans to work but so far he has not addressed the gap between a college educated population and lack of jobs to employ them. Note: Ohio has the fifth highest total number of colleges and post-secondary schools in the United States with 336 (as of 2005).

Unless Ohio and the United States figures out a way to start using all of this college educated workers, we may face our own version of Tunisia.

You ain't seen nothing yet

As of this writing, there are at least 100 dead as Egypt’s crackdown on protestors moves into day 5. Egyptians say their growing protest against the 30-year-rule of President Hosni Mubarak was sparked by the Tunisia uprising that toppled another veteran authoritarian leader two weeks ago. The Mubarak regime seems to following Iran’s merciless but ultimately successful, put down of protestors in 2009 after the disputed reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

US support for Mubarak has angered many Egyptians and could lead to Egyptian backed attacks on US targets. Mubarak refuses to step down. The likely outcome at this point is many more deaths.

The protests in Egypt are the first widespread use of social media to do something more than create a flash-mob to shoot a YouTube video.

The Muslim Brotherhood (the Society of the Muslim Brothers) was founded in Egypt in 1928 by Hassan al-Bana. It is primarily a Sunni organization. Their goal was and is a return to having the Quran and Sunnah (daily rituals) as the guiding law for family, community and state.

It was outlawed in Egypt in 1981 after the assassination of Anwar Sadat. Mubarak took over as president at that time.

It is a conservative group that looks to move away from modern conventions. For example, the Muslim Brotherhood in Kuwait opposes suffrage for women.

Sayyid Qutb wrote the book “Milestones” which called for re-establishing Sharia. Sharia is the sacred law of Islam and is derived from the Quran and the examples of the prophet Muhammad (Sunnah). Osama bin Laden is said to have been influence by Qutb.

The group was outlawed in Egypt. Membership in the Syrian Brotherhood became a capital offense in 1980. In Palestine, the failed Brotherhood morphed into Hamas. Banned in Iraq in 1961, the group has re-emerged after the fall of Saddam Hussein. The Muslim Brotherhood is tolerated in Saudi Arabia.

The Muslim Brotherhood is also active in Algeria, Sudan, Somalia, and Libya. Tunisia, which had an uprising a few weeks ago, has both the Al-Nahda (the Revival or Renaissance Party) and Hizb ut-Tahrir (a group that wants all Islamic countries to unify as caliphates ruled by Islamic law).

There are several Muslim Brotherhood groups active in the United States.

The major for now is centered on the Suez Canal. Two billion barrels of crude oil are shipped through the canal. While Egypt is not a major oil producer, the fear is the unrest could endanger oil shipping. Oil prices have already jumped and we will probably see higher prices at the pump as early as Monday.

The Muslim Brotherhood is widespread meaning unrest could spread throughout the Middle East. Israel has remained silent thus far as there are Muslim Brother chapters in the Jewish state as well. Anything Israel might say could further aggravate unrest or cause groups to target Israeli targets.

This brings us to the final development that has gotten overshadowed by the news in Egypt. Lebanon’s oncoming prime minister, Najib Mikati, is backed by Hezbollah. Mikati, appointed this week after the Shiite Hezbollah toppled the pro-Western government.

In theory, that means Hezbollah has access to the military weapons of Lebanon. These include French anti-tank missiles and US ammunition.

Perhaps this is nothing more than a correction to several Middle Eastern regimes that have grown accustomed to having no serious challengers to their power. Perhaps this is the beginning of a much larger trend of the Muslim Brotherhood to start enacting their agenda.

Some may take this as further proof of a doomsday that has been prophesized. No matter where you find yourself on this debate you have to admit that there are many people that do believe in doomsday prophecies and may see the unrest in Egypt as the beginning of the end.