Syrian Army Storms Dara’a, Cracking Down on Rebels

The crackdown by the Syrian government on rebels has led to 400 killed so far. The Syrian government lifted the state of emergency that had been in place for years only to open fire on the rebels. This is not the first time this has happened in Syria. In 1982, at least 10,000 were killed as an Islamist revolt was crushed. Unlike Egypt, the military has no problems attacking the Syrians.

The problems in Syria has serious implications for Lebanon. Lebanon received independence from the French after World War II. Since 1964, portions of the Lebanon/Syrian border have remained unclear and a point of contention. In Syria's eyes, Lebanon is part of Syria and not an independent nation.

It is no coincidence that Hezbollah is based in Lebanon. The Shi'a group rose in response to the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. The group receives funding from Syria and Iran, many of the Hezbollah leaders having received training from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. In addition to an obvious hatred of Israel, Hezbollah also looks to overthrow any "imperialist" rule. Hezbollah also plays a role in Syria's confrontation with Israel over the occupation of the Golan Heights.

Basically whatever Iran says it what happens in Syria and Lebanon. The United States and NATO have jumped into the Libyan situation without much to show for it beyond raising gas prices. Suspicions of a US desire to attack Iran have been mounting under Secretary of State Clinton. The potential seems to have diminished once the rebellions in Egypt and Libya began. Now with hostilities increasing and civilian casualties mounting in Syria, the specter of the United States becoming involved in an area with ties to Iran increases. Unlike Libya, the Iranian military is not distracted attacking their citizens. Unlike Libya, Iran has surface to surface ballistic missiles, Silkworm anti-shipping missiles and very likely nuclear weapons. When rumors first started to surface about the US trying to pick a fight with Iran, we were not engaged with Libya. Unless the Obama administration ceases operations in either Iraq or Afghanistan, I seriously question the US military ability to wage sustained, multiple campaigns with any real success.

The Chinese are watching with amusement as we continue to going further in debt being the world's police force. Then of course one has to wonder, what of North Korea?


NYTimes.com

Syria protests: Syria's security forces fire on protest marches by mourners

To the victor goes the spoils. The Syrian has over 4,100 Soviet built tanks, one of the largest air defense systems (consisting of surface to air missiles and radars) in the region, surface to surface missiles (SS 21) and around 11,000 soldiers. A coastal defense brigade supports naval forces in defending against threats from the sea. It is equipped with SS-C-1Bs and SSC-3 surface-to-surface missiles. Three surface-to-surface missile brigades are each comprised of one FROG-7 battalion, a Scud-B/C battalion and a SS-21 battalion. Syria's total inventory of SSM is estimated to include some 18 FROG-7s, 18 SS-21s, and 26 Scud Bs and Cs.

Two Syrian law makers have resigned and 107 protesters were killed in yesterday's clash. While all eyes have been focused on Libya, the unrest in Syria has exploded. Syrian has a very powerful military and it would difficult for NATO to engage with them while committing forces to Odyssey Dawn. The implications of the situation in Syria are not good for Lebanon. The Assad regime is largely blamed for the killing of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. And what will Hezbollah make of the events in Syria?


LA Times.com

You ain't seen nothing yet

As of this writing, there are at least 100 dead as Egypt’s crackdown on protestors moves into day 5. Egyptians say their growing protest against the 30-year-rule of President Hosni Mubarak was sparked by the Tunisia uprising that toppled another veteran authoritarian leader two weeks ago. The Mubarak regime seems to following Iran’s merciless but ultimately successful, put down of protestors in 2009 after the disputed reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

US support for Mubarak has angered many Egyptians and could lead to Egyptian backed attacks on US targets. Mubarak refuses to step down. The likely outcome at this point is many more deaths.

The protests in Egypt are the first widespread use of social media to do something more than create a flash-mob to shoot a YouTube video.

The Muslim Brotherhood (the Society of the Muslim Brothers) was founded in Egypt in 1928 by Hassan al-Bana. It is primarily a Sunni organization. Their goal was and is a return to having the Quran and Sunnah (daily rituals) as the guiding law for family, community and state.

It was outlawed in Egypt in 1981 after the assassination of Anwar Sadat. Mubarak took over as president at that time.

It is a conservative group that looks to move away from modern conventions. For example, the Muslim Brotherhood in Kuwait opposes suffrage for women.

Sayyid Qutb wrote the book “Milestones” which called for re-establishing Sharia. Sharia is the sacred law of Islam and is derived from the Quran and the examples of the prophet Muhammad (Sunnah). Osama bin Laden is said to have been influence by Qutb.

The group was outlawed in Egypt. Membership in the Syrian Brotherhood became a capital offense in 1980. In Palestine, the failed Brotherhood morphed into Hamas. Banned in Iraq in 1961, the group has re-emerged after the fall of Saddam Hussein. The Muslim Brotherhood is tolerated in Saudi Arabia.

The Muslim Brotherhood is also active in Algeria, Sudan, Somalia, and Libya. Tunisia, which had an uprising a few weeks ago, has both the Al-Nahda (the Revival or Renaissance Party) and Hizb ut-Tahrir (a group that wants all Islamic countries to unify as caliphates ruled by Islamic law).

There are several Muslim Brotherhood groups active in the United States.

The major for now is centered on the Suez Canal. Two billion barrels of crude oil are shipped through the canal. While Egypt is not a major oil producer, the fear is the unrest could endanger oil shipping. Oil prices have already jumped and we will probably see higher prices at the pump as early as Monday.

The Muslim Brotherhood is widespread meaning unrest could spread throughout the Middle East. Israel has remained silent thus far as there are Muslim Brother chapters in the Jewish state as well. Anything Israel might say could further aggravate unrest or cause groups to target Israeli targets.

This brings us to the final development that has gotten overshadowed by the news in Egypt. Lebanon’s oncoming prime minister, Najib Mikati, is backed by Hezbollah. Mikati, appointed this week after the Shiite Hezbollah toppled the pro-Western government.

In theory, that means Hezbollah has access to the military weapons of Lebanon. These include French anti-tank missiles and US ammunition.

Perhaps this is nothing more than a correction to several Middle Eastern regimes that have grown accustomed to having no serious challengers to their power. Perhaps this is the beginning of a much larger trend of the Muslim Brotherhood to start enacting their agenda.

Some may take this as further proof of a doomsday that has been prophesized. No matter where you find yourself on this debate you have to admit that there are many people that do believe in doomsday prophecies and may see the unrest in Egypt as the beginning of the end.