Egypt's Morsi declares state of emergency

"Egypt's president declared a state of emergency and curfew in three Suez Canal provinces hit hardest by a weekend wave of unrest that left more than 50 dead, using tactics of the ousted regime to get a grip on discontent over his Islamist policies and the slow pace of change.

Angry and almost screaming, Mohammed Morsi vowed in a televised address on Sunday night that he would not hesitate to take even more action to stem the latest eruption of violence across much of the country. But at the same time, he sought to reassure Egyptians that his latest moves would not plunge the country back into authoritarianism."  CBS News

Ferdinand Marcos was President of the Philippines from 1965-86. He declared martial law in response to Communist and Muslim regimes threatening his power. It was not popular and lead to many accusations of human rights violations. I was reminded of Marcos while reading the above CBS piece about Egypt.

Mubarak took over as president after the assassination of Sadat. Mubarak kept the peace accords with Israel that Sadat championed.  This meant the Muslim Brotherhood were constantly trying to oust Mubarak.  In order to keep the Muslim brotherhood in check, Mubarak turned to martial law which inevitably leads to human rights abuses. Mubarak was eventually kicked out and Morsi now turns to the same violence that lead to all of the problems in the first place.

Regime change, especially when the former used violence, is difficult to achieve peacefully.  Usually those taking over were the oppressed and now that they are in charge, they want revenge for previous abuses.  The potential is for the cycle of violence to continue to repeat.

The West really are not in a position to intervene (at least not publicly) with attention focused on Syria, Iran, Libya, Algeria and Mali.  The unknown is this case is what will Israel do?  Mubarak kept peace with the Israelis and now with the Muslim Brotherhood in control, Tel Aviv may worry about disruption on their western flank.

CBS News

Cancel the Camp David Accords?

Last year, the outbreak of the revolution now known as the "Arab Spring" was much celebrated by the West for it eliminate leaders such a Qadaffi. Even Hosni Mubarak, who took over as Egypt's president after the assassination of Anwar Sadat, was left to the rebels as his human rights abuses had become more than the West could ignore. However, you never know what you may get once the known is thrown out for the unknown"

"Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood will eventually cancel the Camp David Agreement, despite the group’s announcement that it respects international agreements Egypt has signed, said Amin al-Sayed Ibrahim, head of Hezbollah’s political council." Egypt Independent

The Camp David Accords were the result of 18 months of intense diplomatic efforts by Egypt, Israel, and the United States that began after Jimmy Carter became President. Efforts initially focused on a comprehensive resolution of disputes between Israel and the Arab countries, gradually evolved into a search for a bilateral agreement between Israel and Egypt.

The Muslim Brotherhood was formed originally in Egypt but has been outlawed since Sadat's administration. The Muslim Brotherhood has been outlawed in most of the nations that underwent the Arab Spring. The Muslim Brotherhood wants to create a Muslim state meaning Sharia law would replace secular law. The US and Europe seem to be in denial of this potentiality.

In the meantime, Syria has declined Russian mediation in transferring power. Russian warships continue to be on-station off the shores of Syria making any military action by the West unlikely.

You ain't seen nothing yet

As of this writing, there are at least 100 dead as Egypt’s crackdown on protestors moves into day 5. Egyptians say their growing protest against the 30-year-rule of President Hosni Mubarak was sparked by the Tunisia uprising that toppled another veteran authoritarian leader two weeks ago. The Mubarak regime seems to following Iran’s merciless but ultimately successful, put down of protestors in 2009 after the disputed reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

US support for Mubarak has angered many Egyptians and could lead to Egyptian backed attacks on US targets. Mubarak refuses to step down. The likely outcome at this point is many more deaths.

The protests in Egypt are the first widespread use of social media to do something more than create a flash-mob to shoot a YouTube video.

The Muslim Brotherhood (the Society of the Muslim Brothers) was founded in Egypt in 1928 by Hassan al-Bana. It is primarily a Sunni organization. Their goal was and is a return to having the Quran and Sunnah (daily rituals) as the guiding law for family, community and state.

It was outlawed in Egypt in 1981 after the assassination of Anwar Sadat. Mubarak took over as president at that time.

It is a conservative group that looks to move away from modern conventions. For example, the Muslim Brotherhood in Kuwait opposes suffrage for women.

Sayyid Qutb wrote the book “Milestones” which called for re-establishing Sharia. Sharia is the sacred law of Islam and is derived from the Quran and the examples of the prophet Muhammad (Sunnah). Osama bin Laden is said to have been influence by Qutb.

The group was outlawed in Egypt. Membership in the Syrian Brotherhood became a capital offense in 1980. In Palestine, the failed Brotherhood morphed into Hamas. Banned in Iraq in 1961, the group has re-emerged after the fall of Saddam Hussein. The Muslim Brotherhood is tolerated in Saudi Arabia.

The Muslim Brotherhood is also active in Algeria, Sudan, Somalia, and Libya. Tunisia, which had an uprising a few weeks ago, has both the Al-Nahda (the Revival or Renaissance Party) and Hizb ut-Tahrir (a group that wants all Islamic countries to unify as caliphates ruled by Islamic law).

There are several Muslim Brotherhood groups active in the United States.

The major for now is centered on the Suez Canal. Two billion barrels of crude oil are shipped through the canal. While Egypt is not a major oil producer, the fear is the unrest could endanger oil shipping. Oil prices have already jumped and we will probably see higher prices at the pump as early as Monday.

The Muslim Brotherhood is widespread meaning unrest could spread throughout the Middle East. Israel has remained silent thus far as there are Muslim Brother chapters in the Jewish state as well. Anything Israel might say could further aggravate unrest or cause groups to target Israeli targets.

This brings us to the final development that has gotten overshadowed by the news in Egypt. Lebanon’s oncoming prime minister, Najib Mikati, is backed by Hezbollah. Mikati, appointed this week after the Shiite Hezbollah toppled the pro-Western government.

In theory, that means Hezbollah has access to the military weapons of Lebanon. These include French anti-tank missiles and US ammunition.

Perhaps this is nothing more than a correction to several Middle Eastern regimes that have grown accustomed to having no serious challengers to their power. Perhaps this is the beginning of a much larger trend of the Muslim Brotherhood to start enacting their agenda.

Some may take this as further proof of a doomsday that has been prophesized. No matter where you find yourself on this debate you have to admit that there are many people that do believe in doomsday prophecies and may see the unrest in Egypt as the beginning of the end.