Violence, Syria, and Nakba Day

Israeli troops today clashed with Arab protesters along three hostile borders, including the frontier with Syria, leaving 16 people dead and dozens more wounded in an unprecedented wave of demonstrations marking a Palestinian day of mourning for their defeat at Israel's hands in 1948.

Along Israel's border with Syria, thousands of protesters stormed the fence and hundreds burst through, pelting soldiers with stones, the military said. Soldiers guarding the border opened fire to stop them. Dozens were wounded and four were reported killed. -- Daily Mail Online

Nakba ("the catastrophe") Day is an annual day of commemoration for the Palestinian people of the displacement that accompanied the creation of Israel in 1948. The prior unrest in the Middle East has marked this year's commemoration with a high level of violence. The violence may be one of the reason Osama bin Laden was killed even though by some accounts the US knew about his whereabouts for over a year. The unrest in Syria would eventually create a threat to Israel. Syria receives support and funding from Iran. Israel could retaliate with a strikes on either country (or perhaps both). The US may now need to shift focus away from Libya to the border region between Israel and Syria. Unlike Libya, establishing a no-fly zone will not be the answer.

The United States could not justify having three wars (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya) all going at the same time. Iraq has had a cessation of combat operations (but apparently rebel forces did not get the memo). Libya continues to show that airpower alone does not win conflicts, Desert Storm not withstanding. Any US involvement will risks re-igniting accusations that Israel controls US interests in the Middle East. The al Qaeda can use this to re-energize their efforts perhaps leading to attacks on US soil.


Mail Online

Syrian Army Storms Dara’a, Cracking Down on Rebels

The crackdown by the Syrian government on rebels has led to 400 killed so far. The Syrian government lifted the state of emergency that had been in place for years only to open fire on the rebels. This is not the first time this has happened in Syria. In 1982, at least 10,000 were killed as an Islamist revolt was crushed. Unlike Egypt, the military has no problems attacking the Syrians.

The problems in Syria has serious implications for Lebanon. Lebanon received independence from the French after World War II. Since 1964, portions of the Lebanon/Syrian border have remained unclear and a point of contention. In Syria's eyes, Lebanon is part of Syria and not an independent nation.

It is no coincidence that Hezbollah is based in Lebanon. The Shi'a group rose in response to the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. The group receives funding from Syria and Iran, many of the Hezbollah leaders having received training from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. In addition to an obvious hatred of Israel, Hezbollah also looks to overthrow any "imperialist" rule. Hezbollah also plays a role in Syria's confrontation with Israel over the occupation of the Golan Heights.

Basically whatever Iran says it what happens in Syria and Lebanon. The United States and NATO have jumped into the Libyan situation without much to show for it beyond raising gas prices. Suspicions of a US desire to attack Iran have been mounting under Secretary of State Clinton. The potential seems to have diminished once the rebellions in Egypt and Libya began. Now with hostilities increasing and civilian casualties mounting in Syria, the specter of the United States becoming involved in an area with ties to Iran increases. Unlike Libya, the Iranian military is not distracted attacking their citizens. Unlike Libya, Iran has surface to surface ballistic missiles, Silkworm anti-shipping missiles and very likely nuclear weapons. When rumors first started to surface about the US trying to pick a fight with Iran, we were not engaged with Libya. Unless the Obama administration ceases operations in either Iraq or Afghanistan, I seriously question the US military ability to wage sustained, multiple campaigns with any real success.

The Chinese are watching with amusement as we continue to going further in debt being the world's police force. Then of course one has to wonder, what of North Korea?


NYTimes.com