Egyptian Civil Strife Sends Oil Close To $100 On Suez Canal Fears

And so it begins;

The situation could have ripple effects worldwide if the Suez Canal becomes jeopardized or even shut down. According to Canaccord Genuity, “this may be impactful as approximately 1.8 million bb/d of oil was transported through the Suez Canal in 2009. A closure of the canal would result in an extra 6,000 miles of travel for any oil being transported out of the region, an additional cost which could drive up oil prices.”

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You ain't seen nothing yet

As of this writing, there are at least 100 dead as Egypt’s crackdown on protestors moves into day 5. Egyptians say their growing protest against the 30-year-rule of President Hosni Mubarak was sparked by the Tunisia uprising that toppled another veteran authoritarian leader two weeks ago. The Mubarak regime seems to following Iran’s merciless but ultimately successful, put down of protestors in 2009 after the disputed reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

US support for Mubarak has angered many Egyptians and could lead to Egyptian backed attacks on US targets. Mubarak refuses to step down. The likely outcome at this point is many more deaths.

The protests in Egypt are the first widespread use of social media to do something more than create a flash-mob to shoot a YouTube video.

The Muslim Brotherhood (the Society of the Muslim Brothers) was founded in Egypt in 1928 by Hassan al-Bana. It is primarily a Sunni organization. Their goal was and is a return to having the Quran and Sunnah (daily rituals) as the guiding law for family, community and state.

It was outlawed in Egypt in 1981 after the assassination of Anwar Sadat. Mubarak took over as president at that time.

It is a conservative group that looks to move away from modern conventions. For example, the Muslim Brotherhood in Kuwait opposes suffrage for women.

Sayyid Qutb wrote the book “Milestones” which called for re-establishing Sharia. Sharia is the sacred law of Islam and is derived from the Quran and the examples of the prophet Muhammad (Sunnah). Osama bin Laden is said to have been influence by Qutb.

The group was outlawed in Egypt. Membership in the Syrian Brotherhood became a capital offense in 1980. In Palestine, the failed Brotherhood morphed into Hamas. Banned in Iraq in 1961, the group has re-emerged after the fall of Saddam Hussein. The Muslim Brotherhood is tolerated in Saudi Arabia.

The Muslim Brotherhood is also active in Algeria, Sudan, Somalia, and Libya. Tunisia, which had an uprising a few weeks ago, has both the Al-Nahda (the Revival or Renaissance Party) and Hizb ut-Tahrir (a group that wants all Islamic countries to unify as caliphates ruled by Islamic law).

There are several Muslim Brotherhood groups active in the United States.

The major for now is centered on the Suez Canal. Two billion barrels of crude oil are shipped through the canal. While Egypt is not a major oil producer, the fear is the unrest could endanger oil shipping. Oil prices have already jumped and we will probably see higher prices at the pump as early as Monday.

The Muslim Brotherhood is widespread meaning unrest could spread throughout the Middle East. Israel has remained silent thus far as there are Muslim Brother chapters in the Jewish state as well. Anything Israel might say could further aggravate unrest or cause groups to target Israeli targets.

This brings us to the final development that has gotten overshadowed by the news in Egypt. Lebanon’s oncoming prime minister, Najib Mikati, is backed by Hezbollah. Mikati, appointed this week after the Shiite Hezbollah toppled the pro-Western government.

In theory, that means Hezbollah has access to the military weapons of Lebanon. These include French anti-tank missiles and US ammunition.

Perhaps this is nothing more than a correction to several Middle Eastern regimes that have grown accustomed to having no serious challengers to their power. Perhaps this is the beginning of a much larger trend of the Muslim Brotherhood to start enacting their agenda.

Some may take this as further proof of a doomsday that has been prophesized. No matter where you find yourself on this debate you have to admit that there are many people that do believe in doomsday prophecies and may see the unrest in Egypt as the beginning of the end.

No More Color Coded Advisory System!

USA Today is reporting the the Homeland Security Advisory System, the color codes that seem to never change, will be phased out in the next 90 days.

The system premiered at orange, went down to yellow for a time, then went back up to orange in 2006 where it has remained. The changes in the system meant little to the average citizen so it rapidly became irrelevant. The new system seems to be a more location specific and may actually help authorities and traveler alike remain more vigilant.

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Can anyone think anymore?

The Tea Party provides only half of the answer. The budget should not be cut as some academic exercise in bookkeeping, the activities that warrant such high budgets need to be scaled-back or eliminated. I am a retired colonel and served in both Desert Storm and Iraqi Freedom. We cannot continue to spend billions of dollars a day but we also can't expect to cut budgets and ask our military to do more with less. If we leave the troops overseas but cut their budgets, we are creating our own failure. If we want to slash budgets, come up with an exit strategy to bring the troops home. Cutting budgets just to balance the budget without regard to how that will impact our troops is political expediency going into the next election cycle.


Tea partiers say defense in mix for budget cuts

Women soldiers not seen picking up combat arms soon

Political correctness will get you killed. All of the arguments about being more fair to minorities masks the real effect, namely more women will be getting killed or maimed on the battlefield. Don't be fooled, women are serving in combat support roles which is a meaningless term when your vehicle gets hit by an IED. Being behind combat lines doesn't mean crap when enemy artillery rounds or rockets hit your base.

"I think that there's a recognition that the time has come," said Nancy Campbell Duff, co-president of the National Women's Law Center. She said no legislation would be required for the Pentagon to start moving women into combat roles.

I don't know if Ms. Duff has served but her comments are those of someone who won't be going into combat themselves. We need to fully realize the price for all of this equality; more women will be maimed and killed. It is not how you win a war or keep the morale of your combat units high.

Women already serve with distinction in the US military. Army Spc. Monica Lin Brown won the Silver Star in 2008. Women soldiers and Marines have received bronze stars and purple hearts throughout Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom.

Ms. Duff's proposal makes it sound as though women aren't being allowed to serve in combat. Then how did Assistant Secretary of Public and Intergovernmental Affairs for the Department of Veterans Affairs Tammy Duckworth lose both of her legs?

For those who may be unfamiliar with her story, Duckworth lost the lower part of both legs from injuries sustained on November 12, 2004, when the UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter she was co-piloting was hit by a rocket propelled grenade fired by Iraqi insurgents.

According to an account posted on Unofficial Arlington National Cemetery Website, the explosion "almost completely destroyed her right arm, breaking it in three places and tearing tissue from the back side of it." Duckworth received a Purple Heart on December 3, 2004.

Let's not get carried away with sound bytes, women veterans are serving in combat right now. The bigger question is how will a society that still judges women by their appearance treat battle-scarred women vets?

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"Our city has no image"

At least according to Councilwoman Laure Quinlivan, who chairs the City Council's Quality of Life Committee.

For those unfamiliar with Ms. Quinlivan's credentials, she is a former TV reporter who now runs her own marketing business in addition to being a first-term council member. Apparently her background ill prepared her to know the following about the city which she now serves;

- Cincinnati is the birthplace of such luminaries as President William Howard Taft, Doris Day, Tyrone Power, Steven Spielberg, Roger Staubach and of course Pete Rose.

- Cincinnati at one time had three professional sports teams; Cincinnati Reds (the first professional baseball team in the country), the Royals, and of course the Bengals (okay, I know this may be a stretch)

- Cincinnati is home to Proctor and Gamble, Chiquita Brands, GE Aircraft Engines, the Kroger Company, and Fifth Third Bank (I picked companies that have been around the Cincinnati area for a while and are probably familiar to readers outside the Cincinnati area).

- Cincinnati has the Art Museum, Taft Museum, Music Hall (home of the Cincinnati Ballet, Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra, and Cincinnati Opera), the College Conservatory of Music (at UC), the School of the Creative and Performing Arts, and the Museum Center (which includes the Natural History Museum).

- Cincinnati was originally called Losantiville (hmm, I wonder where I've seen that name before?) and Porkopolis. Cincinnati was the premier pork butchering center in the world during the 19th Century until Chicago surpassed it for beef butchering (which could only happen because of the invention of refrigerated rail cars).

-Cincinnati was major part of the Underground Railroad (hence the National Freedom Center), had at one time as many as 14 breweries (thanks to the German immigrants), invented Cincinnati style chili (thanks to Greek immigrants) and eats goetta (a type of sausage made from pork and pinhead oats, again thanks to the Germans).

Despite all of this histroy (plus much I either left out or forgot), Ms. Quinilvan thinks we have no image.

The Bengals have never won a super bowl and residents born after 1990 can't remember ever seeing them win a divisional playoff. Those same residents can't remember the Reds winning the World Series. The Cincinnati Royals folded so long ago that most residents don't remember that we ever had a NBA team.

But once upon a time there was Oscar Robinson who played for the Cincinnati Royals. Once upon a time there was Pete Rose, Johnny Bench, and Joe Morgan and they all worked for this guy name Sparky Anderson. Together they and their teammates were called The Big Red Machine. They won back to back World Series championships (1975, 1976)

They was this guy named Ezzard Charles. Although not born in Cincinnati, we claim him as our own. He was once heavyweight boxing champion of the world (back before they invented MMA and UFC). He won 93 of his fights.

There was this really neat lady who was a radio and television broadcaster and probably is most responsible for creating daytime talkshows. She was also incredibly generous and created a charity to make sure hospitalized children received toys. Her name was Ruth Lyons.

Apparently Ms. Quinlivan has missed out on the fact she owes her previous profession to Ms. Lyons. But we have no image.

Cincinnati does have an image, it just that people like her and the rest of city council are too busy bickering to tell the rest of the world our story.




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Detroit Schools

Once upon a time, Detroit was home to the big three automakers and enjoyed high employment rates thanks to the numerous manufacturing plants producing American cars. As production costs increased and demand for US cars decreased, the Big Three began to shut down plants and relocate operations overseas. GM may relocated its headquarters to China were the top luxury car is Buick.

Detroit's unemployment for November 2010 was 12.4 percent making it the poorest city in the United States (Cleveland comes in second with an unemployment rate of 10 percent for the same period).

One of the many effects of such high unemployment is diminished tax revenues which in turn means decreased operating budgets. The strong unions in Detroit have protected cuts to city jobs so reductions are taken elsewhere. Detroit is now looking at closing half of their public schools! As the article points out, this means high school teachers may be looking at 62 students in one classroom.

It is hard enough to keep 35 students engaged in a classroom. Distractions, talking, texting, sleeping, and just plain disinterest mean teachers have to keep busy maintaining discipline as well as teaching the subject. Managing 60 students in a classroom designed for 25 will be akin to herding rabid cats. Learning will become a third or fourth level priority below safety, security, and order.

Detroit is facing another problem they haven't addressed. If somehow or other they are able to teach 60 students at a time, what will be waiting for those students when they graduate? Nothing indicates that Detroit is on a path to economic recovery which means those students will be without jobs when they graduate. No prospect for jobs means even less incentive to remain in school and study.

For those that may have a Jamie Escalante (the calculus teacher in "Stand and Deliver") in their lives and manage to do well and go on to college, they will have to move away in order to get jobs. The Detroit school system is then training workers for other communities. Those without the grades or drive to excel will get left behind in a dead city. Crime will continue to be the only viable means of income.

The Detroit school situation also causes me to wonder what our high schools are really preparing graduates to do. As recently as thirty years ago, a high school diploma was all that was needed to go out an earn a living. The argument to that statement is the change away from a manufacturing based economy required workers to have a college degree. So high school curriculums changed from producing workers to college-prep, A funny thing happened though on the way to the forum. State subsidies to secondary education became based on performance metrics. The challenge was how to evaluate all of the various state high school programs equally. In Ohio, the answer is the proficiency test.

High schools had to transform again from college-prep to now increasing performance on standardized proficiency tests. The results are students showing up in college without critical thinking skills since their educational focus was performance on standardized tests.

Somewhere in this mess, no one asked what the real role of high schools should be in the 21st Century. My question is why can't high schools still produce graduates who are able to earn a living? Granted the economy is no longer manufacturing based but does every single job required a college degree? Other than professions such as doctor, lawyer or engineer many workers have degrees totally unrelated to their field. If the role of high schools in producing qualified employees were better understood, the situation in Detroit could be mitigated if not avoided.

Detroit can serve as an important wake-up call to other communities. If we can revamp our secondary away from the proficiency exam based curriculum, we may be able to produce a quality workforce.