US admiral: Carrier killer won't stop US Navy

According to the commander of the US 7th Fleet, the new Dong Feng 21D anti-ship missile is not the Achille's heel of US aircraft carriers or the US Navy.

The carrier strike group (formerly carrier battle group) consists of 1 aircraft carrier, 2 guided missile cruisers, 2 anit-aircraft warships, 1-2 destroyers or frigates. In addition to surface ships, there are approximately 60 aircraft on the aircraft carrier. Proponents believe the CSG offers unsurpassed firepower and power projection. Critics argue that CSGs are increasingly vulnerable to arsenal ships and cruise missiles, especially those with supersonic flight and the ability to perform radical trajectory changes to avoid anti-missile systems. The CSG is a high value target and if a successful weapon system can engage the group beyond the range of the aircraft, the CSG would be effectively neutralized.

The Dong Feng 21D is unique in that it is believed capable of hitting a powerfully defended moving target — like the USS George Washington — with pinpoint precision. That objective is so complex that the Soviets gave up on a similar project. The missile would penetrate defenses because its speed from launch would not allow enough time for carriers or other large ships to complete countermeasures.

The USS Cole was taken out by a shape charge of between 400-700lbs of high explosives. The escort ships are vulnerable to similar attacks or attacks by small torpedo boats. Remember, the attacks don't have to be successful. They just have to turn the fleet away.

The DF 21D increases the likelihood that the CSG will ineffective in the future. The CSG is a legacy of the Cold War where the US Navy assumed the dominant bluewater role against the Soviet Navy. The main weapon system is the carrier (even with the advent of surface to surface missiles). That flight deck makes a nice target. Disable to the carrier's ability to launch and recover aircraft and it becomes useless.

Ronald Reagan must have realized this at some level since he was a proponent of reactivating and maintaining battle ships. All of the Iowa class battle ships have been decommissioned. Even so, their 17 inch armor plate can withstand attacks from many modern weapons. Unfortunately, their wooden decks were not replaced and their 15 inch guns still used very dangerous blackpowder.

Modern Navy ships rely on stealth and active defensive systems rather than heavy armor plate. If a threat gets through their defenses, their armor may not be able to withstand the attacks. Carriers especially have many systems for launching and recovering aircraft that are vulnerable to attacks.

The DF 21D and resurgence of piracy should have Naval planners reconsidering their reliance on a Cold War legacy.

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'Egypt is Free' chants Tahrir after Mubarak quits

Mubarak was either going to step down or end up going the way of his predecessor (being assassinated). What I find odd is the number of Egyptians that think having the military taking over is "democratic". Where I come from, that is called martial law. As a retired military guy, let me spell the reasons why having the military running your government is NEVER a good thing. The military tends to have more and bigger guns than civilians. The military views civilians as inept, lazy and disorganized otherwise how else did we get in charge? Getting the military out of government is never easy. Being "generalissimo" beats being just a general, going back to having a civilian tell you what to do is never an easy thing. Finally, if the military run government misbehaves who is left to kick them out of office?

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A Lesson from Tunisia

While the world watches Egypt morph into a post-Mubarak regime, the country that started it all remains almost forgotten a month later. Tunisia is an interesting study for a number of reasons that have nothing to do with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Tunisia had economically developed well under Zine El Abidine Ben Ali ranking 81st out of 169 according to the United Nations Development Program human development index measurement.

Unemployment is running 13-14% compared to the US 9.8% (Jan 2011) doesn’t seem that high. So what got everybody steamed at Ben Ali?

Tunisia produces more college graduates than jobs. The unemployment rate is much higher in Tunisia amongst college graduates, especially those under 25.

According to the blog “Teaching College English”, an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 university graduates enter the job market every year. Fifty-seven percent of young Tunisians entering the labor market are college educated.

Unfortunately Ben Ali could not keep his promise to create 300,000 new jobs for all of the college graduates. Furthermore, Ben Ali did not make it possible for Tunisians to easily emigrate. It may have prevented brain drain but it left a highly educated population of disenfranchised young people without jobs.

NPR ran a piece this morning where a young Tunisian woman with a graduate degree was lamenting the only work she could find was at a call center. Several of her relatives, also with graduate degrees, have been without work for months.

The case in Tunisia makes me wonder what the future holds for the United States. We continue to puke out thousands and thousands of graduates from our colleges and universities every year. Yet do we have the capacity to employ these well-educated young people?

Unlike Tunisia, our graduates can emigrate to find work. Many college graduates find work in fields unrelated to their degrees, often doing work that doesn’t require an advanced degree.

I’ve pondered on this blog before about the need to revamp our secondary education system to where people are able to find work upon graduation, at something higher than minimum wage.

Let’s look at a typical four-degree. The average cost for a public four-year college is probably about $50,000. In comparison, a private four-year college may cost $80,000 to $120,000. Much of the courses they will take will have little to nothing to do with their job (quick, how many of you got jobs because you knew the difference between Descartes and Hobbes?).

Most of these graduates will go to work already in debt from student loans. They will require salaries that will allow them to start paying their debts off. At the same time they will have to try to pay for a place to live, a car, food, and a family if they have one. The costs associated with attracting these pricey entry-level workers are passed on to the customer or client.

In comparison, those with only a high school diploma may only be able to find a minimum wage job. Even though they have no debt, and hence require less financial incentives employers, they will face little to no chance for upward mobility. Minimum wage jobs will not allow people to pay for the cost of raising a family.

Most high school graduates who do not intend to go to college do well by going to a career center and earning some type of certification. It allows them to earn more than minimum wage and in the case of technical fields (such as machinist), they will eventually out earn their baccalaureate colleagues.

President Obama has been pushing job creation but none of his plans talk about how he intends to use the surplus of college graduates. Governor Kasich is also all about putting Ohioans to work but so far he has not addressed the gap between a college educated population and lack of jobs to employ them. Note: Ohio has the fifth highest total number of colleges and post-secondary schools in the United States with 336 (as of 2005).

Unless Ohio and the United States figures out a way to start using all of this college educated workers, we may face our own version of Tunisia.

Senators Say FBI & DOD Could Have Prevented Ft. Hood Shooting

Somewhere along the way in "Being All You Can Be" and "An Army of One", the US Army along with the other branches of the military got directed to be kinder and more inclusive. So what if little Johnny or little Janey couldn't pass their PT (Physical Training)? Rather than just kick them out, we need to give them special attention and remedial PT. So what if little Johnny or Janey is a fat-ass that gulps down Whoppers (BK has a restaurant on just about ever major military installation) like there is not tomorrow? We need to be them on the weight management program and teach them to make better choices.

Soldiers, Marines, sailors and airmen cuss with legendary proficiency. You cuss when things don't go right, when things go right, or just because cussing is the only thing left that you can do sometimes. Ah but all of that cussing may be offensive to others so there are any number of sensitivity programs (no, I am not making this up) that military personnel are required to attend. Usually in the Air Force as soon as you arrive on at a new assignment you have to go through 4-8 hours of "Don't abuse alcohol, be sensitive about other people's feelings, don't do drugs, and if you feel uncomfortable about any of the above report it". You also get refresher training about harassment in the workplace, inappropriate relationships, and respect of others that don't look or pray like you do. I cannot begin to imagine what the post "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" training is going to be like.

I worded my descriptions in terms you would hear from the average service member. Yes, I know it is vital to have a cohesive fighting force and teaching service members to respect and get along with one another is just part of mission readiness.

But all of the sensitivity training starts to take on a life of its own. If you are a supervisor and you give someone of a different color or gender a lower rating, you will probably be challenged that you are either a racist or a sexist. The supervisor gets put on the spotlight and has to prove that the subordinate deserved the lower rating. (In my experience, rarely does the subordinate get subjected to the same level of scrutiny to prove they deserve a higher rating or promotion.)

Without intending to, the military equal opportunity and sensitivity programs emboldens the entitlement mentality of some of the younger personnel. They know they should be a first sergeant or a colonel after six months of service. If you don't agree, they it must because you are a racist, sexist or insensitive.

To insure those that truly are racist, sexist or insensitive don't run roughshod over their people, review boards and investigations are set into motions once a charge is made. If Johnny Snotrag is a dumb ass who happens to also be a minority, the supervisor will spend more time justifying one performance appraisal than doing their own job. Unfortunately this can lead to the phenomena known as "F-up, move up". Rather than spend inordinate amounts of time supporting why little Johnny Snotrag is a turd, the supervisor may allow the turd to transfer. Now the turd becomes somebody else's problem.

Some may take exception to what I've written and that's fine. My point was not to criticism our system but rather to give those unfamiliar with it an understanding of how the situation at Ft Hood may have occurred.


“The Fort Hood massacre resulted because of what I would call a tragedy of errors – just one after another - by organizations that normally perform effectively. But in this case – for a host of various reasons and frankly some things that are hard to explain – just totally failed to act in a way that as you look back at the evidence with the clarity of hindsight just shouts out, ‘Stop this guy before he kills somebody!’ And he was not stopped.”

A lot of people passed MAJ Nidal Hassan to the next assignment because they did want the headaches of dealing with his issues. Charging a service member with mental health problems can result in months of paperwork. Hindsight is always perfect but you have to ask, what did they see at the time? A potential mass-murder or just a head-case that wasn't worth the time to do due diligence.

Seung-Hui Cho made many students and faculty uncomfortable at Virginia Tech before he went on his rampage. Fears about HIPPA violations and a lack of clear guidance offered faculty and administrators no options to deal with Cho in advance. The same thing happened with Jared Loughner at his community college. A disturbing head-case but no options were available to deal with him in advance.

MAJ Hassan did not have as many protections as Cho and Loughner but military's system of checks and balances accomplished the same thing. By creating an environment that demands such high burden of proof, it caused his superiors to simply avoid dealing with him before he became a mass murderer.


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Denial

The body language of both the mayor and FOP president is one of defiance. They are of course defiant that the city manager has called off the search for a new police chief. Furthermore, they are also quite perturbed the proposal to merge Cincinnati Police Department with Hamilton County Sheriff's office.

Mayor Mallory said, "I'm not giving away any secrets or strategies, but I will say one thing: I've never felt so strongly about anything as a mayor. The city will continue to have a police department."

Of course the whole reason this proposal exists is because of the city's budget which almost lead to 100 firefighters and 134 police officers to be laid off. If you were to ask the average Cincinnati resident what Mayor Mallory feels strongest about, they would probably say the street car.

I can't really take anything FOP president has to say seriously because no police department means no more FOP job for her.

Hamilton County has many small neighborhoods that over the years formed their own fire and police departments. For example, St Bernard with just 6,000 residents (according to a 2000 census) has both a fire and police department even though they are surrounded by Cincinnati jurisdictions. Such practices has created 40 separate police and fire departments in Hamilton county.

Fire departments have been looking into regional departments but run afoul of politics. Politicians jump in front of the camera and swear no one can do the job as well as their department. Fair enough but apparently this hasn't stopped areas like Louisville from creating regional or metropolitan police and fire.

FOP president Harrell would argue that the Louisville consolidation was done and yet no savings were realized (she hired at least one consultant to come to Cincinnati and spreading the word of how bad an idea consolidation would be).

Okay but has either the mayor or the FOP come up with a way to fix the budget? The new casino is being built along with the Banks. More officers, not fewer, will be required. However budgets will continue to shrink especially with gas likely to rise to $4.00 per gallon by Memorial Day.

Cincinnati Police stands could lose 100 police officers in 2012 due to the DROP program. CPD has not run a police academy in several years and probably won't until 2013. The Hamilton County Sheriff's office has figured how to run one that just started a few weeks ago.

The arguments will continue to be based on politics and not reality. The reality is New York City, with over 8 million people, has just one Metropolitan police department. Why, beyond the political bluster, could a city and country merger not work?

US response to Egypt draws criticism in Israel

An article by Amy Teibel on MyWay indicates Israel is beginning to break its silence on the matters in Egypt.

Critics - including senior Israeli officials who have shied from saying so publicly - say Obama is repeating the same mistakes of predecessors whose calls for human rights and democracy in the Middle East have often backfired by bringing anti-West regimes to power.

"I don't think the Americans understand yet the disaster they have pushed the Middle East into," said lawmaker Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, who until recently was a Cabinet minister and who is a longtime friend of Mubarak.


If you are of a certain age, you may remember the Tehran Embassy crisis in 1980. What you may not remember is that it was in response to the US backing the Shah of Iran. While pro US, the Shah maintained control of the Iranian people through his secret police, SAVAK. SAVAK could sensor the media in addition to the usual things secret police do, such as detain and torturing political dissidents.

The Tehran Embassy crisis led Ronald Reagan to support Saddam Hussein when he picked a fight with Iran. Saddam, many forget, used chemical weapons on the Iranians. There is some evidence to suggest the support the US gave Saddam against Iran led him to thinks invading Kuwait was okay. Of course this misunderstanding leads to Desert Storm and ultimately Iraqi Freedom. No wonder the Middle East gets confused whenever the US gets involved.

Foreign policy failures though aren't just limited to the Middle East. Something most college students don't understand is the not so proud history of US involvement in Central and South America. Here are a few that you may have forgotten;

- In 1921, Presdient Coolidge supports the overthrow of Guatemalan President Herrera. The Guatemalan president did not agree with the United Fruit company taking all of the lands away from the Guatamalan people to grow bananas.

- In 1946, U.S. Army School of the Americas opens in Panama as a hemisphere-wide military academy. Its linchpin is the doctrine of National Security, by which the chief threat to a nation is internal subversion; this will be the guiding principle behind dictatorships in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Central America, and elsewhere.

- In 1961, the CIA backa a coup to overthrow elected Pres. J. M. Velasco Ibarra of Ecuador, who has been too friendly with Cuba.

- In 1962, the CIA engages in campaign in Brazil to keep João Goulart from achieving control of Congress.

- In 1963, the CIA backs a coup to overthrow elected social democrat Juan Bosch in the Dominican Republic.

- In 1967, US Green Berets are sent to Bolivia to assasinate Che Guevera

- In 1968, Gen. José Alberto Medrano, who is on the payroll of the CIA, organizes the ORDEN paramilitary force, considered the precursor of El Salvador's death squads.

- In 1973, a U.S.-supported military coup kills Allende and brings Augusto Pinochet Ugarte to power. Pinochet imprisons well over a hundred thousand Chileans (torture and rape are the usual methods of interrogation), terminates civil liberties, abolishes unions, extends the work week to 48 hours, and reverses Allende's land reforms.

- In 1973, the military takes power in Uruguay, supported by U.S. The subsequent repression reportedly features the world's highest percentage of the population imprisoned for political reasons.

President Obama and Secretary Clinton need to pay attention to this little history lesson and know intervening in foreign policy has never been successful regardless of one's political party.

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That didn't take long

AMMAN, Jordan (AP) -- Jordan's King Abdullah II fired his government Tuesday in the wake of street protests and asked an ex-prime minister to form a new Cabinet, ordering him to launch immediate political reforms.


Apparently this was NOT bending to pressure from the Muslim Brotherhood but rather a preemptive move to prevent a repeat of the situation in Egypt.

As though 24 hour cable news doesn't provide enough images, the advent of social media is making it far easier for these movements to spread. Social media provides an unparalleled platform for coordinating and recruiting members for demonstrations. The Egyptian people have already outmaneuvered the Mubarak Administration by going old school for Internet access when the government shutdown the servers. The Egyptians used satellite phones, dial-up modems and radio packet switching to get their emails and Tweets out.

Like Mubarak, King Abdullah suspended the ability of opposition parties to challenge his authority. In the past, such measures worked since it was difficult to mount any large scale support. Furthermore those who dared challenge Mubarak or Abdullah faced stiff prison sentences in not so friendly jails. Social media has radically neutralized the ability of a single leader to deny dissenting groups a voice. The same social media that allows flash mobs to form dancing to "I Gotta Feeling" shows its versatility it getting like minded individuals at the same point in time and space to protest governments.

What is a political leader to do? President Obama's Administration pursued the Cyber Security Act of 2009 which would have allowed the President to declare martial law of the Internet. Of course legislation is rarely able to stop cover all of the different possibilities. If you shut down the servers, that still leaves dial-up modems and radio packet switches. Granted these are incredibly slow but it would still allow people to communicate with their digital devices. Shut these down and you still have short-wave, CB and HF radios. It would be very difficult to deny all radio frequencies without also denying military and first responders access to airwaves.

Which country is next? Yemen, Iraq and Albania are all possibilities. Azerbaijan, which produces 914,000 barrels of oil a day, is the largest country in the Caucus region of Eurasia. It is also Shiite. The combination of being Russia's largest oil field with a Muslim population makes for a potential battleground should the Muslim Brotherhood protests continue.


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