The problem with silver bullets

The lure of having the latest high-tech weapon is like having a silver bullet.  You know that when the werewolf comes, you will be able to blow them to smithereens.  But what happens should there be more werewolves than you have silver bullets?

Apparently Israel is trying to figure the answer out to this question right now.  According to a Defense News article, The Senate earlier today began debating a $3.5 billion supplemental spending measure that would send $225 million in emergency dollars to Israel for its Iron Dome missile defense program.  Therein lies another problem with high-tech weapons and silver bullets, they tend to cost a lot of money.

Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile defense system has been doing a yeoman's job of protecting the Israeli citizens from Hamas rockets and missiles.  Unfortunately, Israel has been using the equivalent of Porsches to knock down Ford Fiestas.  Now Iron Dome is running out of missiles.

The other problem with high-tech weapons are they are pretty.  You keep thinking about how awesome they are and how invincible it makes you in comparison to your enemies pathetic, old fashioned weapons.  The mindset gets you to imagine envy on the part of your enemy as they race to foolishly match the exquisiteness of your silver bullet.  Yet you keep upgrading your hardware and countermeasures so that they can never catch.  How you pity the fool!

Of course the more your focus on your silver bullet, the less likely you are to remember werewolves don't use silver bullets themselves.

Hamas lobbed 2,000 missiles so far at Israel but that may have been a feint.  Instead of trying to get a silver bullet, Hamas simply began to dig.  As of today, 32 tunnels have been found.  Taking a note straight from the Viet Cong, Hamas realized the most effective way of striking at Israeli military targets was to dig tunnels into Israel.

When the US Air Force decided to carpet bomb North Viet Nam, the Viet Cong didn't look for a silver bullet to shoot down the B-52s.  Instead, they used a tried and true technique of tunneling.  The tunnels of Cu Chi gave the Viet Cong an extensive underground network of armories and make-shift hospitals.

Hamas didn't take it to that extreme but the pictures in this article show the sophistication of the tunnels.  Israel became too confident in their Iron Dome to remember to look for the threat to come elsewhere (sort of like Ripley and the Space Marines when they forgot to look for the aliens in the air ducts).

The US is guilty of loving silver bullets as well.  Take the F-35.  It is supposed to be able out-fight and out-fly any other jet fighter in the world.  As a USAF general admitted recently though, there aren't enough F-35s to really be a silver bullet.  Yes, the F-35 can fly into hostile territory such as Syria and deliver devastating firepower from above, but each F-35 can only take out a max of 8 other fighters.  A limited number of F-35s means that you could see an enemy keep lobbing older fighters at the Lightning II until it runs out of missiles.

Or they enemy might be someone like the Russian Spetznaz.  Amongst the different weapons they carry, each Spetznaz soldiers carries a shovel.

It's about 20"long and the edges are sharpened.  Cold Steel makes a copy.  Why would modern special forces troops carry such an item?  The Spetznaz doctrine imagines them walking into an area under the cover of darkness.  They stop and lie flat on the ground and begin digging.  In a few minutes they have dug up enough where if they lie flat, they are below the line of the earth.  Give them about an hour and they will have dug a foxhole.  Give them a day and they will have connected all of their foxholes into a tunnel network.

Oh and it is also a weapon.  Spetznaz soldiers can throw their shovels with lethal accuracy.  A shovel flying throw the air also has a psychological effect on the target.  They don't try to block it, they tend to duck giving the Spetznaz soldier time to attack or flee.  They also learn how to wield these things with such dexterity they can split matchsticks.

Sounds primitive yet Hamas just proved that you don't have to rely on state-of-the art weapons to be effective.  Israel is still likely to be victorious but it is taken them much longer and costing them much more than they thought it should.

Mr, Kerry's failure at diplomacy

Mr. Kerry was unable to negotiate a long-term cease fire between Israel and Hamas.  It's not surprising since Netanyahu sees this opportunity to break Hamas once and for all.  The casualties he is racking up is not by accident.  It is an attempt to destroy both Hamas members as well as their support infrastructure.  Mr. Kerry truly does not seem capable of understanding what the parties involved are doing nor their motivations.

Mr. Kerry performance while conducting negotiations is more of the topic today than the ongoing war.  Israel is the latest country to bristle at the US meddling in their affairs.  Obama, Rice and Kerry all mistook the US/Israeli relationship to mean Tel Aviv would take follow orders from the White House.  Israel may be an ally of the US but it has never been its puppet.  One only needs to look at the history of Israel to see how often they've acted unilaterally without waiting for US approval.

Here are some of the things the Israeli press had to say about the Secretary of State;

Maariv columnist Ben Caspit called Kerry 'an ongoing embarrassment, with the characteristics of a snowball.'

'The further he rolls, the greater the embarrassment,' Caspit said.

Israeli TV reporter Udi Segal ran a report citing government officials who framed Kerry as 'incapable of handling the most basic matters.'--Daily Mail

Obama has a vain streak in him that causes him to become enamored of blue-bloods with pedigrees.  His picks people from Ivy League schools thinking, as he possible does of himself, that they can master any task before them.  Unfortunately, the people he has picked tend to have that same snobby aloofness that does not get lost in translation.  Both Hillary and Kerry tend to lecture world leaders as though they are the only ones who have the intellect to understand the situation.  Unfortunately for them, almost always those they've face have intellects that were mored than a match for theirs.

The US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan to prevent al Qaeda from further attacking America.  Thousands of Iraqis and Afghanis (along with thousands of Americans and allies) died as a result of those wars.  Yet Kerry tried to lecture Israel on their excessive use of force against Hamas.  The hypocrisy of this elitist attitude is a big enough hurdle to overcome but then there is Kerry's bumbling demeanor.  He just is not up to the the task and the only one who could have done worse is Biden.  Kerry has not only failed to broker a cease fire, he has shown the world that the US has no control over Israel.

US hypocrisy is on full view this week.  In addition to the ham-fisted attempt at trying reach a ceasefire, apparently for all of the anti-Russian sentiment the US has been fanning sales to Russia are actually INCREASING.  According to an article appearing on McClatchy's website, U.S. Census Bureau foreign trade data show that exports rose 17 percent from March through May _ the most recent months for which the data is available _ compared with the previous three months, before sanctions were imposed.  Wait, what?  Isn't the US hellbent on forcing Russia to withdraw its troops via economic sanctions?  Did Hillary Clinton just get done telling the European Union to stop purchasing fuel from Gazprom?  

It appears the Russians may be stockpiling good in anticipation of eventually being cut-off from US suppliers.  Of course, Russia could cut-off the US from receiving rocket motors in the future (which powers all of the US launch vehicles now).  And Russia is in a position to cut the US completely off from accessing the international space station.  

More and more it seems the Obama administration is nothing but a paper tiger.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/07/28/234647/us-sales-to-russia-have-only-risen.html?sp=/99/117/#storylink=cpy

What doe Netanyahu know that Obama doesn't?

Netanyahu has reaffirmed his/Israel's resolve to continue to bomb Hamas in the Gaza Strip despite President Obama's assurance (and one would assume Secretary of State Kerry) to help negotiate things.        Obviously the lack of diplomatic success by Obama and his team in Syria and Iraq (as well as the border situation in the United States) probably has left Tel Aviv impressed to say the least.

The real answer as to why Israel has taken matters into their own hands lies not in Washington nor even Tel Aviv but in Cairo.  The area known as the Gaza Strip borders Egypt (for about 7 miles) and Israel for around 32 miles.  Control of the Gaza Strip was first by Palestine (under Egyptian military authority) in 1948.  Israel then captured the Gaza Strip in Six Day War (1967).  Pursuant to the Oslo Accords signed in 1993, the Palestinian Authority became the administrative body that governed Palestinian population centers while Israel maintained control of the airspace, territorial waters and border crossings with the exception of the land border with Egypt. In 2005, Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip under their unilateral disengagement plan.  Hamas became de-facto government of the Gaza Strip in 2007.

But for further answers we need to go all the way back to 1979 and the Camp David Accords.  Prime Minister Menachem Begin of Israel and President Anwar Sadat of Egypt signed the famous peace agreement (with much assistance from President Jimmy Carter).  Just two years later, Sadat would be assassinated allowing Hosni Mubarak to become President of Egypt.  Mubarak, like Sadat, kept the peace between Egypt and Israel.  Egypt was one of the main players in keeping the Sunnis of the Middle East happy even though the US made no pretenses in favoring Israel over Muslims.

Mubarak, like so many that remain in power for too long, started to use his secret police and torture as a way of keeping in power.  Although contrary to the beliefs and values of the United States, Mubarak's expertise in this area would prove beneficial after 9-11.  Suspected terrorists caught under rendition would be sent to Egypt to be interrogated (tortured).  Mubarak and his cronies didn't perfect their art by watching videos, they of course learned by torturing Egyptians.  This lead to Mubarak's ouster as part of the Arab Spring.

While it was easy to see the connection between the Sadat and Anwar regimes to the US, what gets lost in translation is the relationship Morsi (Mubarak's successor) had with the US.  Hillary Clinton recognized Morsi's value as a Sunni but could not quite spin his membership in the Muslim Brotherhood as a positive so she kept the relationship from being publicized.  As long as Morsi remained in office, the US had a means of keeping the Sunnis from trying to usurp Maliki in Iraq. Once Morsi was replaced with Sisi, the US no longer had any means for communicating with the Sunnis.  Hence the ISIL moved into Iraq, Maliki is on the ropes and the US had to turn to their old enemy, Iran. Hence Netanyahu's realization that Obama doesn't have any means of communicating with the Sunnis so his promise to help broker a peace was hollow.

One other thing, none of this should be come as a surprise if you pay attention to the flags.  First, here is the flag of Gaza Strip (Palestine);

Next up is Syria;

Next is Iraq;

Egypt;

And Iran;

Notice the similarities, those colors are not by accident.  The colors in all of these flags are of the Pan-Arab colors (black, white, green, red), each representing a different Caliphate.  The black was the color of the banner of Muhammad; white was used by the Umayyad Caliphate; green was used by the Fatimid Caliphate; and red was the flag held by the Khawarij.  These are also the colors of the Arab Revolt of 1916.

Israel has always understood the game and knows they are surrounded.  Netanyahu gets the US doesn't have clue and is taking steps to stop Hamas from lobbing missiles.  Hamas, which gets its support from Syria, sees the situation in Iraq being an excellent opportunity to split the attention of a weak White House that no longer has a way of reaching the Sunnis (other than through Iran, and who's side do we really think they are on?).

Israel and Azerbaijan

Something has been troubling me about Israel's focus on attacking Iran. Conspiracy theorists are all saying that Israel has been secretly given the go-ahead for an attack by the US. Political pundits are saying President Obama is using to situation in Syria as a way of appearing tough on foreign policy and by extension keeping Iran in check.

But given Israel's history in warfare, attacking Iran's nuclear facilities would lead to hostilities on its northern border. The Egyptian government is no longer friendly towards Israel and could cause problems for Israel on its souther flank. Therefore, the only way it makes sense for Israel to attack is they have another partner backing their play. The US does not seem to be in a position to back an Israeli led attack against Israel. The presence of Russian warships off the coast of Syria seems to be specifically to prevent US led airstrikes. If US airstrikes can be neutralized, or at least reduced, against Syria then strikes against Iran are even less likely to be successful.

But what if Israel's plans did not have to rely (or wait) for US airstrikes? According to an article on Foreign Policy, Israel has had a relationship with Azerbaijan since 1994. There are four airbases leftover from when Azerbaijan was part of the Soviet Union that could be used to recover Israeli fighters.

Azerbaijan - a nation with a majority-Turkic and majority-shia Muslim population - was briefly independent from 1918 to 1920; it regained its independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Despite a 1994 cease-fire, Azerbaijan has yet to resolve its conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, a primarily Armenian-populated region that Moscow recognized as part of Soviet Azerbaijan in the 1920s after Armenia and Azerbaijan disputed the status of the territory. Armenia and Azerbaijan began fighting over the area in 1988; the struggle escalated after both countries attained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Source: CIA Factbook

But if Israel gains access to runways and a means of flanking Iran's northern border, what does Azerbaijan gain? According to Foreign Policy:

Israel's deepening relationship with the Baku government was cemented in February by a $1.6 billion arms agreement that provides Azerbaijan with sophisticated drones and missile-defense systems. At the same time, Baku's ties with Tehran have frayed: Iran presented a note to Azerbaijan's ambassador last month claiming that Baku has supported Israeli-trained assassination squads targeting Iranian scientists, an accusation the Azeri government called "a slander." In February, a member of Yeni Azerbadzhan -- the ruling party -- called on the government to change the country's name to "North Azerbaijan," implicitly suggesting that the 16 million Azeris who live in northern Iran ("South Azerbaijan") are in need of liberation.Foreign Policy

Israel now gains not only a military advantage but also has politicized the plight of the Azeris in Northern Iran. But this also explains why Israel and Turkey have been having issues in the last few years.

The deepening Azeri-Israeli relationship has also escalated Israel's dispute with Turkey, which began when Israeli commandos boarded a Turkish ship destined for Gaza in May 2010, killing nine Turkish citizens. When Turkey demanded an apology, Israel not only refused, it abruptly canceled a $150 million contract to develop and manufacture drones with the Turkish military -- then entered negotiations with Azerbaijan to jointly manufacture 60 Israeli drones of varying types. The $1.6 billion arms agreement between Israel and Azerbaijan also left Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan "sputtering in rage," according to a retired U.S. diplomat.

The centerpiece of the recent arms deal is Azerbaijan's acquisition of Israeli drones, which has only heightened Turkish anxieties further. In November 2011, the Turkish government retrieved the wreckage of an Israeli "Heron" drone in the Mediterranean, south of the city of Adana -- well inside its maritime borders. Erdogan's government believed the drone's flight had originated in the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq and demanded that Israel provide an explanation, but got none. "They lied; they told us the drone didn't belong to them," a former Turkish official told me last month. "But it had their markings."Foreign Policy

Baku may be familiar to those of you that follow oil or know a little history of Rockefeller. Standard Oil had discovered huge oil reserves in Ohio and Pennsylvania but nothing like the oil reserves that were discovered in Baku in 1883. Standard Oil perfected its fracking techniques specifically to refine the thicker crude oil from Baku. Rockefeller was in direct competition with the Russians to gain access over the Baku oil fields but ultimately, the Russians took control.

The history of oil in Baku is important in understanding why Turkey is uneasy with the Israel-Azerbaijan relationship. But perhaps the best way to understand their concerns is by looking at the below map:



The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is a 1,099 mile long crude oil pipeline from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oil field in the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. It connects Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan; Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia; and Ceyhan, a port on the south-eastern Mediterranean coast of Turkey. In part, this has allowed Turkey to gain greater economic influence. Russian specialists claim that the pipeline will weaken the Russian influence in the Caucasus. Hence Russia's support of Syria and reluctance to condemn Iran's nuclear program. The Russian Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Konstantin Kosachev stated that the United States and other Western countries are planning to station soldiers in the Caucasus on the pretext of instability in regions through which the pipeline passes.

Israel also gains access to the Baku oil fields which means it doesn't not need to worry about situations in Iran or Libya effecting the cost of energy. Israel is unlikely to back down from a confrontation with Iran and the US really isn't in a position to say one way or the other. Israel can destroy what it perceives as a grave threat (Iran's nuclear program) and recover its fighters safely in a friendly territory. The ramifications though of such an attack are huge. Turkey and Russia will view Israel's presence in Baku as destabilizing and aggressive. Russia will especially view the Israeli as a threat to its oil fields. Turkey will view the Israeli presence as a threat which could lead to Turkey eventually attacking Israel. The US is out of position to effect any influence on these matters. The US has decided it does not want a nuclear Iran, preventing an Israeli attack would essentially endorse Tehran's plans. Further, the US is not interested in a conflict that may pit US forces against Russia.

Egypt and Israel Back Away From Diplomatic Crisis

As many as three Egyptian security officers may have been killed by Israeli warplanes. The incident follows exchanges of fire in the Gaza strip. Egypt and Israel maintained peace between their countries as a result of Anwar Sadat and the Hosni Mubarak who took over following the former's assassination. Just because Mubarak got along with Israel did not reflect his domestic policies. Mubarak was forced out and now facing charges. The Egyptian movement that forced out Mubarak wants to change all of his policies including his stance with Israel. The situation escalating and along with the potential fall of Gaddafi could become a flashpoint for even more violence.

NYTimes.com

Violence, Syria, and Nakba Day

Israeli troops today clashed with Arab protesters along three hostile borders, including the frontier with Syria, leaving 16 people dead and dozens more wounded in an unprecedented wave of demonstrations marking a Palestinian day of mourning for their defeat at Israel's hands in 1948.

Along Israel's border with Syria, thousands of protesters stormed the fence and hundreds burst through, pelting soldiers with stones, the military said. Soldiers guarding the border opened fire to stop them. Dozens were wounded and four were reported killed. -- Daily Mail Online

Nakba ("the catastrophe") Day is an annual day of commemoration for the Palestinian people of the displacement that accompanied the creation of Israel in 1948. The prior unrest in the Middle East has marked this year's commemoration with a high level of violence. The violence may be one of the reason Osama bin Laden was killed even though by some accounts the US knew about his whereabouts for over a year. The unrest in Syria would eventually create a threat to Israel. Syria receives support and funding from Iran. Israel could retaliate with a strikes on either country (or perhaps both). The US may now need to shift focus away from Libya to the border region between Israel and Syria. Unlike Libya, establishing a no-fly zone will not be the answer.

The United States could not justify having three wars (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya) all going at the same time. Iraq has had a cessation of combat operations (but apparently rebel forces did not get the memo). Libya continues to show that airpower alone does not win conflicts, Desert Storm not withstanding. Any US involvement will risks re-igniting accusations that Israel controls US interests in the Middle East. The al Qaeda can use this to re-energize their efforts perhaps leading to attacks on US soil.


Mail Online

Israeli Emergency Management

The 1967 Arab-Israeli War (or Six Day War) was an unexpected and decisive victory for the Israeli military. Ever since, the Israeli military has enjoyed the reputation of being the toughest, best trained and best equipped military in the region. The Israeli government has heavily funded the military as a way of discouraging neighboring nations from attacking the lone Jewish state. Viewed from a political or military perspective, this plan seems to have achieved the goal of preventing major military actions against Israel (although this same approach could be argued as to why there are some many terrorist bombings).

The forest fire on Mount Carmel highlights when your attention becomes so focused on one thing, preventing military attack, other equally destructive events get neglected. The article points out that Israel only has 1 firefighter per 10,000 instead of the recommended 1 per 1,000. International firefighter associations feel such a low ratio means Israel is extremely unprepared to deal with a major fire (which the Mount Carmel fire is proving). Because of the political and theological differences Israel has with its neighboring nations, there is no Emergency Management Compact or even mutual aid compact with Syria, Jordan or Egypt (which are all nations Israel has had conflicts with over the years).

However, even if Israel had a different relationship with is neighbors it still would be faced with a problem of an overwhelming disaster that requires an emergency management system that it simply doesn't have. Emergency management is not sexy and doesn't nothing to protect you from a military attack. But as the earthquake in Haiti has proven, a system needs to be in place to prepare citizens how to respond during an emergency. The same system is critical to the recovery after a major disaster. Perhaps the Mount Carmel fire will do something none of the enemies of Israel could ever do.

Link here

Flotilla Raid Further Frays Turkey-Israel Ties

Not to be outdone by US posturing with Iran and North Korea, Turkey has decided to test the mettle of Israel.

Turkey has a large, modern military force that easily outguns the Israelis. Israel enjoys an almost mythical reputation for their military but toughness alone is enough in the face of overwhelming numbers. Israel has no inhibitions about using nuclear weapons, especially if facing an all attack from Turkey.

Turkey is a Muslim nation and a NATO nation. Any conflict between the two nations would pose several dilemmas for the United States. First, the United States has been a long time all of Israel. Supporting Israel over Turkey would put the US at odds with NATO, the very organization the United States helped formed in response to the Cold War. It would also affirm in the eyes of the Muslim world that the US has really be waging a war against Islam all along. The US would lose any leverage it may have in dealing with Iran and Ahmadinejad's nuclear weapons program.

If the United States comes out supporting Turkey, it means abandoning long time ally Israel. It will be spun by both Islamic and Jewish supporters as a victory for the Muslim world and the US will be condemned for abandoning a long-term ally.

Israel's policies regarding the Gaza strip are untenable and places the United States in a precarious position. The US is already engaged in two wars, with the possibility of additional conflicts in either North Korea and Iran, can ill afford to be drawn into another conflict in the Middle East. The United States has thus far been able to minimize comparisons of the current wars to the Crusades. A conflict between Turkey and Israel would enjoy no such pardon.


Flotilla Raid Further Frays Turkey-Israel Ties - WSJ.com

Update: The UN has just condemned Israel's actions.

Fox News