Turkish bombing campaign against PKK signals shift in strategy

I just finished my last post about Libya and mentioned Turkey when this story caught my eye.

The Kurds occupy an area consisting of Northern Iraq, Southern Turkey, Western Iran and parts of Armenia and Georgia. The Kurds are not Arabic (they have their own language) and really have no place to call home. The governments of Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Armenia basically have no use for the Kurds. After Desert Storm, Turkey and Iraq (under Saddam Hussein) agreed on Kurdish problem. Iraq would move their artillery up to the 38th parallel (the star of the northern no-fly zone) and shell Kurdish villages. The Kurds would be driven back into Turkey who had a hot-pursuit agreement with Iraq and could fly into Northern Iraq to strike the PKK. Oh, and the US was part of OPERATION PROVIDE COMFORT which was supposed to protect the Kurds (except for the Turks who were letting coalition forces stage at Incirlik).

Now 20 years later, the Turks and the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party) and having more disagreements. As you can see from the map, the Kurdish problem could create an interesting cooperation between Turkey, Iran and Iraq. The presence of Turkey in NATO raises the ugly question, does an attack by the PKK on Turkey constitute an attack on NATO? If so, what will NATO's response be?

CSMonitor.com

Syrian forces 'storm town near Turkey border'

Syrian forces attacking a Turkish border town. Unlike other attacks during the "Arab Spring", this attack in upon a NATO ally. If Turkey and Syria declare war, NATO and the United States are placed at the brink. Meanwhile, Secretary Clinton tries to appease the Taliban in hopes they will break from Al Qaeda.

Al Jazeera English

Flotilla Raid Further Frays Turkey-Israel Ties

Not to be outdone by US posturing with Iran and North Korea, Turkey has decided to test the mettle of Israel.

Turkey has a large, modern military force that easily outguns the Israelis. Israel enjoys an almost mythical reputation for their military but toughness alone is enough in the face of overwhelming numbers. Israel has no inhibitions about using nuclear weapons, especially if facing an all attack from Turkey.

Turkey is a Muslim nation and a NATO nation. Any conflict between the two nations would pose several dilemmas for the United States. First, the United States has been a long time all of Israel. Supporting Israel over Turkey would put the US at odds with NATO, the very organization the United States helped formed in response to the Cold War. It would also affirm in the eyes of the Muslim world that the US has really be waging a war against Islam all along. The US would lose any leverage it may have in dealing with Iran and Ahmadinejad's nuclear weapons program.

If the United States comes out supporting Turkey, it means abandoning long time ally Israel. It will be spun by both Islamic and Jewish supporters as a victory for the Muslim world and the US will be condemned for abandoning a long-term ally.

Israel's policies regarding the Gaza strip are untenable and places the United States in a precarious position. The US is already engaged in two wars, with the possibility of additional conflicts in either North Korea and Iran, can ill afford to be drawn into another conflict in the Middle East. The United States has thus far been able to minimize comparisons of the current wars to the Crusades. A conflict between Turkey and Israel would enjoy no such pardon.


Flotilla Raid Further Frays Turkey-Israel Ties - WSJ.com

Update: The UN has just condemned Israel's actions.

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