And so it begins;
The situation could have ripple effects worldwide if the Suez Canal becomes jeopardized or even shut down. According to Canaccord Genuity, “this may be impactful as approximately 1.8 million bb/d of oil was transported through the Suez Canal in 2009. A closure of the canal would result in an extra 6,000 miles of travel for any oil being transported out of the region, an additional cost which could drive up oil prices.”
Article Here
Sunday, January 16, 2011
A Cautionary Tale
Cincinnati barely escaped cutting police an firefighters this year. Next year police and firefighters will start hitting their maximum time under the drop program. Both departments will probably lose 100-200 personnel and no new academies will be held until 2013 at the earliest.
Camden, N.J. cutting 300 plus city workers is an example of what can go wrong in other cities (especially Cincinnati). To offset money shortfalls, the city pursued grants and added police and firefighters to combat the crime resulting from a depressed economy. Without jobs, crime continued to rise in Camden and now with fewer police and firefighters the city may never recover. The article makes this cautionary observation for other cities facing similar situation:
"It's the struggling cities like Camden that could bear the worst of the fallout from the Great Recession as governments at all levels slash costs. Congress has signaled that it will allocate less money to states. And New Jersey, facing its own fiscal crisis, has begun cutting how much money it gives to cities. Camden, where 80 percent of the budget in recent years has come from the state, has the most to lose."
Article here
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Desert Storm
On Jan 16, 1991 the air campaign began. In less than two months, coalition forces would drop 60,000 tons of ordnance on Iraqi forces. At that rate, coalition forces were on par with the monthly totals for WWII or Vietnam.
The use of aircraft to drop bombs goes back to World War I when pilots tried to drop hand-grenades on ground troops hunkered down in trenches. For almost as long, pilots and planners pursued the goal of precision bombing.
During the Battle of Hamburg (Operation Gomorrah), it took 700 aircraft 8 days and 7 nights to drop just 9,000 tons. The US Army Air Corps conducted daytime operations while the Royal Air Force conducted night time operations. The campaign was an extend carpet bombing operations as no precision guided munitions existed. The ensuing firestorm resulting from burning asphalt turning Hamburg into an inferno made the operation far more destructive than the numbers would indicate.
Allied bombers had to fly directly over the target risking losses from both anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) as well as Luftwaffe fighters. It took multiple passes with multiple aircraft just to take out larger targets such as factories. The bomb sights of the day could not compensate for wind, drift or poor visibility.
Daylight precision bombing became the holy grail for air planners. Twenty years after the end of World War II, USAF and USN jet aircraft still had to overfly their targets. In addition to the AAA and figthers of the Vietcong, American bomber pilots had to also contended with surface to air missiles. Laser-guided bombs were used towards the end of the Vietnam war but had little effect on the war.
Desert Storm saw the first use of precision guided munitions. Videos of bombs flying through windows of buildings and going down the smoke stack of factories thrilled CNN audiences. Bombs could actually now take out only those targets that were supposed to be taken out, collateral damage seemed like something of the past.
Desert Storm also showed the devastating effects of airpower. You can't launch your aircraft if they are destroyed on the tarmace before they ever get the chance to launch. You can't build tank armor strong enough to withstand a 500lbs high explosive (HE) bomb coming through the turret.
The best guard dog a downed aviator or surrounded ground-pounder could have was an A-10 on station. The A-10 went from being just flying tank killer, to a protector of all coalition ground forces. If a tank couldn't withstand a hit from the 30MM gun or Maverick missile, what hope did other Iraqi vehicles have? There were stories of Iraqi soldiers surrendering just as soon as they heard the sound of the Hog's engines. They knew the A-10 could loiter for a very long time and encountering a Hog meant certain death.
Desert Storm worked too well. Kuwait was liberated, the Iraqi forces were sent packing and American troops were heroes. It also caused American military planners to believe airpower alone could win wars.
What many Americans don't know is while US forces were kicking the snot out of Saddam Hussein and his elite Republic Guards, bases were being closed in Europe. Many soldiers returning after Desert Storm found their posts closed and their families back in the States. Without those bases, the military didn't need as many people. A reduction-in-force (RIF) or involuntary separation was instituted. The criteria targeted, either deliberately or accidently, those who had just finished learning how to fight a war.
Twelve years later, the US would be back fighting in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Airpower would be called upon again to protect ground forces and to eliminate Iraqi air threat before it even left the ground. The Iraqi air force had not forgotten the lessons from Desert Storm and buried many of their jest rather than tangle with a new generation of coalition fighter pilots.
The airpower that is used today looks nothing like what sent a Sunni despot packing twenty years ago today. Stand-off precision bombing is now common practice using GPS to precisely guide bombs to their target. Munitions today can range anywhere from 2000lbs bunker busting bombs to smaller 250lbs bombs. The precision of delivering bombs now has become so precise 250lbs are all that is required to take out most targets.
During Desert Storm, drones were only seem in movies. Now drones have gone from small observation-only platforms to lethal hunter/killers that can remain on station for many hours.
Twenty years ago, airpower ascended as the means to fight a modern war. The aircraft may have changed but the effectiveness remains.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Chinese fighter 'has changed power balance'
The Chinese J20 has changed the balance of power in their favor over the United States. Whether or not the J20 is a more capable aircraft than the F35 is irrelevant. The Chinese were not expected to field this aircraft for another 5-10 years. By doing so, it has put the United States on notice that it is committed to maintaining a modern fighting force. The US has been trying to field the F-35 to replace the aging legacy fighters such as the F-15, F-16 and F/A-18. The first flight of the F-35 occurred in 2006 and cost overruns now place the F-35 as the single most expensive weapon system ever and it still isn't fielded! The US military-industrial complex just is not nimble enough to rapidly field new technology and the speed of the Chinese system should be cause for concern. Getting into another arms race with China is something the US probably won't win.
Article here
Article here
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Congress readies new gun-control bills after Gabrielle Giffords shooting - CSMonitor.com
Of course, how will this stop Loughner? The high capacity magazines are already out there and of course the next Loughner can simply do what Cho did, reload. This is a bunch of political drama to take our attention away from the real problem, a mental health system that is unable to deal with people like Loughner (other than to medicate the crap out of them). What happens when they stop taking their meds?
Article Here
Article Here
Glock Pistol Sales Surge
Two camps seem to be forming over the shootings in Arizona. One camp is pointing out the inadequacies in our mental health system that makes it almost impossible to get people like Jared Loughner help. Recommending someone for a mental health evaluation carries so many stigmas and risks the individual losing his or her job that it almost impossible to get people the help they need.
The other camp wants to rehash gun control and specifically the Glock with high capacity magazines. Glocks are inexpensive, readily available, come in a variety of calibers and sizes. The ease of operation, shooting and general indestructibly of Glocks makes them popular with law enforcement and those looking for a concealed carry weapon. There is nothing inherently talismanic about Glocks other than their availability makes them the most likely to be used by shooters.
The rush in Arizona to buy Glocks falls into one of two scenarios. The first is simply people who have wanted a Glock and now are afraid the shootings will make it impossible to get one. The other reason is why product placement in movies and TV shows is so lucrative, people but what it on the screen. The shootings have placed Glocks on screens everywhere and there are mall rats running out to buy theirs.
All the hype about Glocks misses that Loughner would have used any weapon he could get his hands on to commit his murder spree. No Glock? What about a Winchester 30-30 or a Remington 1100 automatic shotgun. Or he could have simply gone the Timothy McVeigh route and build a bomb.
The national dialog needs to focus on better identifying the next Loughner or Cho BEFORE they start shooting and stop the goofy arguments about barring guns would have stopped him. Loughner is an evil, psychotic bastard that would have figured out a way to kill those people even if he did not have access to firearms.
Article Here
The other camp wants to rehash gun control and specifically the Glock with high capacity magazines. Glocks are inexpensive, readily available, come in a variety of calibers and sizes. The ease of operation, shooting and general indestructibly of Glocks makes them popular with law enforcement and those looking for a concealed carry weapon. There is nothing inherently talismanic about Glocks other than their availability makes them the most likely to be used by shooters.
The rush in Arizona to buy Glocks falls into one of two scenarios. The first is simply people who have wanted a Glock and now are afraid the shootings will make it impossible to get one. The other reason is why product placement in movies and TV shows is so lucrative, people but what it on the screen. The shootings have placed Glocks on screens everywhere and there are mall rats running out to buy theirs.
All the hype about Glocks misses that Loughner would have used any weapon he could get his hands on to commit his murder spree. No Glock? What about a Winchester 30-30 or a Remington 1100 automatic shotgun. Or he could have simply gone the Timothy McVeigh route and build a bomb.
The national dialog needs to focus on better identifying the next Loughner or Cho BEFORE they start shooting and stop the goofy arguments about barring guns would have stopped him. Loughner is an evil, psychotic bastard that would have figured out a way to kill those people even if he did not have access to firearms.
Article Here
Gates: North Korea will pose direct threat to US
First Iran and now North Korea, the United States seems unable to determine which threat it wants to stare down. Furthermore, Sec Def Gates record for correctly assessing the capability of our potential adversaries seems woefully lacking. The Chinese are fielding the J-20 prototype a full decade ahead of his predictions. The Chinese have also built an anti-shipping missile that seems capable of knocking the snot out of a carrier battle group. Now his assessment is that North Korea is a direct threat due to long range missiles. Well North Korea did not just go out and get that technology.
To be fair, the Secretary is not making these assessments by rather a whole staff of advisors who are presumably pulling intelligence from throughout the Department of Defense. I have the feeling that intelligence that was not consistent with the Sec Def's strategic vision were either filtered or ignored. I suspect Gates' vision is one of a stable world situation that would allow a drawn down of the forces that have grown over the last 10 years. Such a view is one driven more be the economics of waging a two front war than of the reality of the world. North Korea really is undergoing only its second change of leadership since its founding. Iran is rediscovering its Persian Empire roots at a time when the US superpower is waning. China and Russia have just completed an oil pipeline that will give both the needed resources to continue to be major players on the world front.
The US has relied on coalition forces to wage military operations in the last two decades. Support has come primarily from European nations but those nations now face a failing Euro. The United Kingdom is getting rid of its aircraft carriers and is talking with France about forming a joint self-defense force. It is unlikely that should the US find itself in a shooting war with Iran or North Korea (or worse, both at the same time) that it will be able to turn to a coalition of European forces for help.
The US only has Japan and South Korea as military allies in the Pacific. Neither country has a power projection capability. A war on the Korean Peninsula will almost assuredly guarantee and attack by North Korea on Japan. The casualties on the peninsula will be unimaginable, even if it doesn't go nuclear, since there is a huge population densely packed on a small land mass.
Perhaps Gates will prove to be again be wrong, only this time it means we won't be facing a threat.
Article Here
Monday, January 10, 2011
Gates and China
From the Air Force Association Daily Update:Defense
Secretary Robert Gates has acknowledged that China's efforts to develop a stealth combat aircraft may be more advanced than the United States previously thought. "We knew they were working on a stealth aircraft. I think that what we've seen is that they may be somewhat further ahead in the development of that aircraft than our intelligence had earlier predicted," he told reporters Saturday while traveling aboard his aircraft to Beijing on the first leg of his Asia trip. A reporter had asked him about the recently revealed Chinese J-20 aircraft, which appears to be a stealth design. Gates said "there is some question about just how stealthy" the J-20 is. Despite the J-20's emergence, Gates said, he "continue[s] to stand" by his earlier assertion that there will be "a vast disparity in the number of deployed fifth generation aircraft" that the United States has by the middle of next decade compared to China or any other nation. That's even with the changes being made to the F-35 strike fighter program, he noted.
Secretary Robert Gates has acknowledged that China's efforts to develop a stealth combat aircraft may be more advanced than the United States previously thought. "We knew they were working on a stealth aircraft. I think that what we've seen is that they may be somewhat further ahead in the development of that aircraft than our intelligence had earlier predicted," he told reporters Saturday while traveling aboard his aircraft to Beijing on the first leg of his Asia trip. A reporter had asked him about the recently revealed Chinese J-20 aircraft, which appears to be a stealth design. Gates said "there is some question about just how stealthy" the J-20 is. Despite the J-20's emergence, Gates said, he "continue[s] to stand" by his earlier assertion that there will be "a vast disparity in the number of deployed fifth generation aircraft" that the United States has by the middle of next decade compared to China or any other nation. That's even with the changes being made to the F-35 strike fighter program, he noted.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Jared Loughner Radically Changed
Watch, we will see more stories about Loughner being radicalized. In turn, there will be more legislation passed to allow surveillance of websites and penalties for those deemed "radical". Groups like the Tea Party and NRA will go into overdrive protesting these measures. The Liberals will counter that this is exactly what lead to the shootings in Arizona. I don't think the Obama administration is going to be able to come up with a solution for this problem.
Article here
Article here
AZ shooter Jared Loughner's behavior
Jared Loughner will be analyzed in the news for the next several weeks. The shootings in Arizona illustrate the problem facing colleges in the 21st Century, namely what to do with students that cases other students to feel uncomfortable (as the emails in the Washington Post article show) but their actions aren't grounds for kicking the students out. The economic downturn has been a boom to community college enrollment as students take advantage of the lower tuition. Community colleges also tend to have open enrollment which means there is wide range of academic, socio-economic, and demographic factors walking through the door. Sometimes the students walking through the door have mental health challenges and if those are social pathologies, college can set off a greater pathology. Arguments with faculty and other students, feelings of rejection, or feelings of failure are college experiences for some. For people like Loughner or Cho (the Virginia Tech shooter), these experiences drive them to action. The challenge for colleges is to come up with ways of identifying these students without becoming draconian and expelling every student that says something that makes other people uncomfortable.
It also serves as a reminder of my constant mantra, remain vigilant at all times!
It also serves as a reminder of my constant mantra, remain vigilant at all times!
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Arizona congresswoman among 12 shot at Tuscon grocery
Fighter pilots call it "SA" or situational awareness. You have to keep aware of the constantly changing dynamics, focusing too much on the enemy aircraft may cause you to forget about ground based missiles. Situational awareness is something we should all strive to develop. I'm sure the people were busy either listening to the Congresswoman or shopping but this case shows the danger of forgetting violence is around us all of the time. You need to constantly assess your environment. If something happens, where would you take cover or escape? Even if it isn't an active shooter, what about a fire or earthquake? How would you get out? People go about their daily business without considering what happens when the SHTF. I'm not advocating a paranoid state, just a prudent one that realizes even the most benign looking bookstore or market could be turned into the next catastrophe.
Link Here
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Pentagon to cut spending by $78 billion, reduce troop strength
President Obama increased troop strength by 30,000 in 2009 making current levels over 90,000. According to iCasualties.org, US casualties were 155 in 2008, 317 in 2009 (the year of the increase), and 499 in 2010. Given these numbers, Secretary Gates comment that "what had been a culture of endless money . . . will become a culture of savings and restraint" is especially offensive. The "endless money" is for the conduct of the war in which American service men and women are dying.
On top of that, China has unveiled a stealth fighter prototype and a anti-ship missile capable of knocking out a carrier battle group. The US military has been at war since 2001 (something that escapes many people thanks to both the Bush and now Obama administrations reluctance to ask Americans to make sacrifices). The OPSTEMPO has cause the lifecycle of many weapon systems to shrink geometrically in relationship to OPERATION IRAQI and OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM. Now President Obama and Secretary Gates want to cut the budget to prove a point? If they truly want to save money, why not truly bring the troops home (something the President promised during his campaign) and save the taxpayers billions of dollars.
Link Here
Underestimating China
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates made the observation that China was 5-10 years away from fielding a stealth fighter prototype. Then China unveils its new J20 stealth fighter. Vice Adm. Dorsett (chief of Naval intelligence) observed that the observed that the US is adept at underestimating China's ability to field prototypes. Give that bit of introspection, I find the following to be incredulous:
China has an operational carrier-killer ballistic missile much sooner than expected, said Navy intelligence chief Vice Adm. David Dorsett Wednesday. "I am concerned about the DF-21B ballistic missile," Dorsett told defense reporters in Washington, D.C. The missile, if fired in salvos of "several" at a time, could find and destroy a "maneuvering target" at long range, he said. He's not worried about it yet, for while the missile has been tested over land "a sufficient number of times" to prove it works, and has been fielded, it has never been demonstrated—"to our knowledge"—operationally over water, using real-world naval sensors and targets, he explained. Whether it could really sink a US aircraft carrier, "we don't know, and frankly, I'm guessing they don't know," said Dorsett. He admitted that, a year ago, the Navy believed "no one had a maneuvering capability" in a ballistic missile. That assessment has now changed, he said.
I for one am note betting that the DF-21B won't be able to strike the fleet.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
2011
While pondering what the new year might hold, one story caught my attention. A bomb killed at least 21 people outside a church in the Egyptian city of Alexandria early on New Year's Day in what appears to be an attack by a suicide bomber. The bombing could be an attempt by a group to create disharmony between the Muslim and Christian populations in Egypt. A statement on an Islamist website posted about two weeks before the blast called for attacks on Egypt's churches, listing among them the one hit.
"The first and most likely possibility is that a sleeper cell of al Qaeda group carried out this operation and this would mean that al Qaeda has penetrated the Islamic political movement in Egypt," said analyst Nabil Abdel-Fattah.
Considering this is the tenth anniversary of 9/11 the bombing holds some ominous implications. The US invasion of Afghanistan following the attacks on 9/11 caused many in the Islamic world to wonder if the US was restarting the Crusades. It did not help that the rhetoric that followed in the US equated terrorism with radical Islam. It is the stuff of ratings for the talking heads on TV and radio to incite patriotic feelings focused on radical Muslims.
The Crusades all started because a Byzantine emperor got the snot kicked out of him by the Turks. He went sniveling to Pope Urban II for help who saw in this request an opportunity to seize back the city of Jerusalem from the Muslims. In total, nine crusades were fought and some interesting alliances were formed. Saladin was a Kurdish Muslim who recaptures Palestine but he allowed Christian pilgrims safe passage to the city. He won the respect of many of them, including Richard the Lionheart; rather than becoming a hated figure in Europe, he became a celebrated example of the principles of chivalry.
The United States has had quite a history with the Muslim world as well. "Morocco was the first nation to recognize the United States, in 1787, and it has been a steadfast friend and security partner," remarked Defense Secretary William Cohen in 1987. Founded by the Berbers, Morocco's history spans 8,000 years and during the 18th Century it was most assuredly Muslim.
Then there is Article 11 of Treaty of Peace and Friendship between the United States of America and the Bey and Subjects of Tripoli of Barbary, ratified in 1797, that states: "As the Government of the United States of America is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian religion; as it has in itself no character of enmity against the laws, religion, or tranquility, of Mussulmen; and, as the said States never entered into any war, or act of hostility against any Mahometan nation, it is declared by the parties, that no pretext arising from religious opinions, shall ever produce an interruption of the harmony existing between the two countries"
Apparently Article 11 didn't stop President Reagan from launching Operation El Dorado Canyon against Libya in 1986.
My point in bringing up Morocco and the Tripoli Treaty is to show the US has not always had destabilized relationship with the Muslim world. Events since 9/11 has rekindled tensions between the Christian and Muslim world. We need to be aware that there are other groups out there that will seek to continue to fuel hatred and violence between Christians and Muslims.
"The first and most likely possibility is that a sleeper cell of al Qaeda group carried out this operation and this would mean that al Qaeda has penetrated the Islamic political movement in Egypt," said analyst Nabil Abdel-Fattah.
Considering this is the tenth anniversary of 9/11 the bombing holds some ominous implications. The US invasion of Afghanistan following the attacks on 9/11 caused many in the Islamic world to wonder if the US was restarting the Crusades. It did not help that the rhetoric that followed in the US equated terrorism with radical Islam. It is the stuff of ratings for the talking heads on TV and radio to incite patriotic feelings focused on radical Muslims.
The Crusades all started because a Byzantine emperor got the snot kicked out of him by the Turks. He went sniveling to Pope Urban II for help who saw in this request an opportunity to seize back the city of Jerusalem from the Muslims. In total, nine crusades were fought and some interesting alliances were formed. Saladin was a Kurdish Muslim who recaptures Palestine but he allowed Christian pilgrims safe passage to the city. He won the respect of many of them, including Richard the Lionheart; rather than becoming a hated figure in Europe, he became a celebrated example of the principles of chivalry.
The United States has had quite a history with the Muslim world as well. "Morocco was the first nation to recognize the United States, in 1787, and it has been a steadfast friend and security partner," remarked Defense Secretary William Cohen in 1987. Founded by the Berbers, Morocco's history spans 8,000 years and during the 18th Century it was most assuredly Muslim.
Then there is Article 11 of Treaty of Peace and Friendship between the United States of America and the Bey and Subjects of Tripoli of Barbary, ratified in 1797, that states: "As the Government of the United States of America is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian religion; as it has in itself no character of enmity against the laws, religion, or tranquility, of Mussulmen; and, as the said States never entered into any war, or act of hostility against any Mahometan nation, it is declared by the parties, that no pretext arising from religious opinions, shall ever produce an interruption of the harmony existing between the two countries"
Apparently Article 11 didn't stop President Reagan from launching Operation El Dorado Canyon against Libya in 1986.
My point in bringing up Morocco and the Tripoli Treaty is to show the US has not always had destabilized relationship with the Muslim world. Events since 9/11 has rekindled tensions between the Christian and Muslim world. We need to be aware that there are other groups out there that will seek to continue to fuel hatred and violence between Christians and Muslims.
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