Gates: North Korea will pose direct threat to US

First Iran and now North Korea, the United States seems unable to determine which threat it wants to stare down. Furthermore, Sec Def Gates record for correctly assessing the capability of our potential adversaries seems woefully lacking. The Chinese are fielding the J-20 prototype a full decade ahead of his predictions. The Chinese have also built an anti-shipping missile that seems capable of knocking the snot out of a carrier battle group. Now his assessment is that North Korea is a direct threat due to long range missiles. Well North Korea did not just go out and get that technology.

To be fair, the Secretary is not making these assessments by rather a whole staff of advisors who are presumably pulling intelligence from throughout the Department of Defense. I have the feeling that intelligence that was not consistent with the Sec Def's strategic vision were either filtered or ignored. I suspect Gates' vision is one of a stable world situation that would allow a drawn down of the forces that have grown over the last 10 years. Such a view is one driven more be the economics of waging a two front war than of the reality of the world. North Korea really is undergoing only its second change of leadership since its founding. Iran is rediscovering its Persian Empire roots at a time when the US superpower is waning. China and Russia have just completed an oil pipeline that will give both the needed resources to continue to be major players on the world front.

The US has relied on coalition forces to wage military operations in the last two decades. Support has come primarily from European nations but those nations now face a failing Euro. The United Kingdom is getting rid of its aircraft carriers and is talking with France about forming a joint self-defense force. It is unlikely that should the US find itself in a shooting war with Iran or North Korea (or worse, both at the same time) that it will be able to turn to a coalition of European forces for help.

The US only has Japan and South Korea as military allies in the Pacific. Neither country has a power projection capability. A war on the Korean Peninsula will almost assuredly guarantee and attack by North Korea on Japan. The casualties on the peninsula will be unimaginable, even if it doesn't go nuclear, since there is a huge population densely packed on a small land mass.

Perhaps Gates will prove to be again be wrong, only this time it means we won't be facing a threat.

Article Here

Gates and China

From the Air Force Association Daily Update:Defense

Secretary Robert Gates has acknowledged that China's efforts to develop a stealth combat aircraft may be more advanced than the United States previously thought. "We knew they were working on a stealth aircraft. I think that what we've seen is that they may be somewhat further ahead in the development of that aircraft than our intelligence had earlier predicted," he told reporters Saturday while traveling aboard his aircraft to Beijing on the first leg of his Asia trip. A reporter had asked him about the recently revealed Chinese J-20 aircraft, which appears to be a stealth design. Gates said "there is some question about just how stealthy" the J-20 is. Despite the J-20's emergence, Gates said, he "continue[s] to stand" by his earlier assertion that there will be "a vast disparity in the number of deployed fifth generation aircraft" that the United States has by the middle of next decade compared to China or any other nation. That's even with the changes being made to the F-35 strike fighter program, he noted.

Pentagon to cut spending by $78 billion, reduce troop strength

President Obama increased troop strength by 30,000 in 2009 making current levels over 90,000. According to iCasualties.org, US casualties were 155 in 2008, 317 in 2009 (the year of the increase), and 499 in 2010. Given these numbers, Secretary Gates comment that "what had been a culture of endless money . . . will become a culture of savings and restraint" is especially offensive. The "endless money" is for the conduct of the war in which American service men and women are dying.

On top of that, China has unveiled a stealth fighter prototype and a anti-ship missile capable of knocking out a carrier battle group. The US military has been at war since 2001 (something that escapes many people thanks to both the Bush and now Obama administrations reluctance to ask Americans to make sacrifices). The OPSTEMPO has cause the lifecycle of many weapon systems to shrink geometrically in relationship to OPERATION IRAQI and OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM. Now President Obama and Secretary Gates want to cut the budget to prove a point? If they truly want to save money, why not truly bring the troops home (something the President promised during his campaign) and save the taxpayers billions of dollars.

Link Here