U.S. drone targets two leaders of Somali group allied with al-Qaeda

OPERATION RESTORE HOPE began on December 8, 1992 with the Unified Task Force (UNITAF). UNITAF included U.S. and allied troops working together in one task force, but under U.S. and not UN direction. RESTORE HOPE tried to establish peace between the two warring Somali warlords General Muhammed Farah Aideed of the Habr Gidr subclan and Ali Mahdi Mohamed of the Abgal subclan in Mogadishu.

The failure of this operation was depicted in the movie "Blackhawk Down". There is one part in the movie about a third of the way through were the Somalis take out a US Blackhawk with a rocket propelled grenade (RPG) shot to the tail rotor. The movie does not explain the real significance of this tactic.

US Blackhawk helicopters are amazing aircraft but for all of their ability, they are not armored. Why then did the Somalis shoot at the tail rotor rather than the much larger fuselage?

In the Soviet war in Afghanistan, the Soviets brought a weapon the battle-hardened Afghanis had never had to face; the Mi-24 helicopter. This is a huge gun ship and it is heavily armored. The rifles the Afghanis had would not stop the Mi-24 which lead Osama bin Laden to obtain Stinger missiles from the US through the CIA. The Afghanis learned firing the missiles or RPGs at the tail rotor had the highest probability of downing the helicopter. A helicopter becomes aerodynamically unstable without the tail rotor.

The events in "Blackhawk Down" therefore show a tactic that was developed by the mujahideen (the pre-cursor to al Qaeda) being used in Somalia. The following quote from today's Washington Post should therefore come as no surprise:

"The airstrike makes Somalia at least the sixth country where the United States is using drone aircraft to conduct lethal attacks, joining Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Iraq and Yemen. And it comes as the CIA is expected to begin flying armed drones over Yemen in its hunt for al-Qaeda operatives."

Targeting terrorists from the air versus the ground was favored by the Clinton Administration. On Aug. 7, 1998, the U.S. embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, were bombed by terrorists, leaving 258 people dead and more than 5,000 injured.

In response, the U.S. launched cruise missiles on Aug. 20, 1998, striking a terrorism training complex in Afghanistan and destroying a pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in Khartoum, Sudan, that reportedly produced nerve gas. Both targets were believed to have been financed by wealthy Islamic radical Osama bin Laden, who was allegedly behind the embassy bombings as well as an international terrorism network targeting the United States. (source: Info Please database).


Unlike President Clinton, President Obama does not have to rely on cruise missiles that introduce the possibility of striking civilians (often referred to as "collateral damage"). President Obama can rely on a much more accurate weapon, the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV).

The picture at the top is of the current MQ-9 Reaper that is replacing the earlier Predator model. The Reaper was intended from the start to be a hunter/killer unlike the Predator. It can stay on station longer with more ordnance at higher altitudes. UAVs also means a President can skirt the political hot potato of the War Powers Act. A limited military operation (i.e. using drones) seems to fall outside the purview of Congressional approval (at least according to the politicians). Drones, like cruise missiles before, provides the ability to conduct strikes at targets without risking the lives of US troops (as well as risking a President's ability to get re-elected).

As the Washington Post points out, we are now shooting targets in six different countries. With the exception of Pakistan, none of the others have nuclear weapons. We are also supposedly partnered with Pakistan, although striking ground targets with drones is probably a quick way to wear out a welcome.

It will be interesting to see if the Obama Administration starts to use drones in other scenarios such as Syria or Iran.


The Washington Post

How much will our wars cost?

A new report out of Brown University estimates that the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq--together with the counterinsurgency efforts in Pakistan--will, all told, cost $4 trillion and leave 225,000 dead, both civilians and soldiers.

Basically the population of Reno, Nevada has been killed in the wars. Despite much posturing by the Obama Administration, the wars aren't going to end anytime soon. Plus we now have Libya and potentially Iran.

Yahoo! News

Iranian Situation

Syria and Egypt continue to experience violence between the government and citizens creating potential flash points in either country.

In the meantime, Iran presents the most destablizing scenario of any Middle Eastern country. President Ahmedinajad, through a series of political missteps, faces the very real possibility of being forced to step down. Nepotism and narcism have left the President in a untenable position opposite the powerful Ayatollah. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been the only Middle Easter countries to thus far avoid any of the turmoil from the Arab spring (although Iran is not an Arab state, they are of course Persians).

Ahmedinajad stepping down should in theory reduce tensions with the United States. However, any number of his potential successors can take an ever harder stance against the West. Now comes the news that Iran has secretly been testing missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The Hague has declared this a violation of UN Resolution 1929 which means with the political turmoil in Tehran, tensions could escalate into hostilities.

Ahmedinajad

Iranian Nuclear Missile Test

Ex-cons busted for alleged plot to blow up Seattle military recruiting station

The headlines caught my attention because of the first two words, "ex-cons". If there is a built-in network to recruit and train domestic terrorists it is our prison system. Gangs have been using the prisons as a way of recruiting new members and expanding their networks for years. MS-13 is perhaps is the best know example. Originally started by El Salvadorians in East Los Angeles (in response to Mexican gang threats), MS-13 can be found on both coasts. The Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) used the technique at the Maze. The attempted attack of the military recruiting station should be taken as a sign that more terrorists are coming out of our prisons. Sociopaths fueled by a religious or political zeal make for an especially dangerous combination.

NY Daily News

Air breathing platforms

Prior to Desert Storm, the USAF was moving away from air breathing platforms citing their high costs and the advancement in satellites. Desert Storm proved the continued need for surveillance assets that could be directed by the theater commander. Desert was much too short to keep the pressure off so air breathing platforms (the RF-4C for example) were retired with no follow on system.

Iraqi Freedom demanded air breathing platforms with longer duration that the Predator. Thus Global Hawk was born but again without thoroughly thinking through the needs of the theater level commander. Global Hawk is an amazing, but increasingly expensive, platform. Yet even in the 21st Century, commanders and analysts still rely on wet film imagery.

U-2 and Global Hawk: Le Bourget, France—For years, the Air Force has known it will give up some intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance capability when it retires the U-2 fleet. The U-2 can carry heavier sensors than the RQ-4 Global Hawk remotely piloted aircraft and has a still-in-demand wet film capability. Now USAF is involved in an analysis of alternatives to consider what sensors it wants on the Global Hawk going forward, said officials with Global Hawk prime contractor Northrop Grumman here Monday at the Paris Air Show. Ed Walby, company executive, said Air Force officials have told him that they expect to complete phase one of the AOA by the end of the summer. The Global Hawk Block 30 aircraft configuration is "full," said Walby; if USAF wants to change out sensors in a modular way, though, it should be able to, he said. "The reason for the Block 30 was to do what the U-2 can't," he added, noting that the RQ-4 can collect electronic intelligence and communications intelligence simultaneously, something the U-2 cannot. He acknowledged that "some of the U-2 sensors can see further than ours," but that this shortcoming is made up for by the Global Hawk's three-to-one advantage in loiter time. Moreover, some of the Global Hawk's sensors can be changed simply by modifying the software, he said.

Barack Obama and Pentagon split on Afghanistan pullout

The pullout raises some questions. If the original purpose of OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM was to hunt down Osam bin Laden, then the mission was completed once he was killed. Why continue the military presence? Unlike Iraq which had its government destroyed by the US invasion, Afghanistan has a government in place. Continuing our military presence in Afghanistan invites escalation as Taliban forces or Al Qaeda plot revenge. Pakistan is an unpredictable environment and raises additional potential of escalation.

The other question is, are these troops needed elsewhere? The obvious is Libya but with Syria and Turkey having skirmishes, could the Obama administration be concerned about hostilities in the Middle East? Iran remains committed to their pursuit of nuclear weapons, however with now Germany, France, China and Russia all condemning the initiative the United States may feel it can deal with Iran on a more unilateral basis. Therefore, the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan becomes even more crucial.

The bump in poll numbers President Obama received as a result of the killing of Osama bin Laden seems to have faded. The elections are still a long way off and pulling troops out of Afghanistan, regardless of their eventual use, could be a way for the President to still make good on one of his campaign promises.

The Guardian

NATO Admits Missile Hit a Civilian Home in Tripoli

NYTimes.com