Iran explosion at Revolutionary Guards military base

The photo above is not photo-shopped, that is a Grumman F-14 Tomcat painted with Iranian paint scheme. Once upon a time, Iran and the US were allies. Shah Pahlavi came to power after WWII and in partnership with the British created the Anglo-Persian Petroleum Oil Company (better known as BP today, minus the Persian part). The Shah was secular Muslim meaning he was very pro-West. The Muslim clerics was none too happy and opposed the Shah. The Shah maintained his power in no small part through his secret police (SAVAK). In keeping with other secret police agencies, SAVAK kidnapped, tortured and murdered any and all opponents to the Shah. The Iranian people grew tired of this crap and staged a revolution most notably by seizing the American embassy in Tehran. Fifty-two Americans were held hostage for 444 days. The Shah fled into exile and Ayatollah Khomeini came to power re-establishing Iran as a theocracy.

The US and Iran relations have never been the same. The failed rescue attempt (Operation Eagle Claw) was a complete humiliation for US special operations (especially Delta Force) leaving a bad taste in President Reagan's mouth for Iran. He abandoned the former US ally in favor of one Saddam Hussein during the 8 year Iran-Iraq war. Iraq invaded Iran in September 1980 (much as Hussein would almost a decade later with Kuwait). Iran regained much of the territory and for much of the war, Iran was on the offense. Hussein responded by using chemical weapons. Yes, dear children your read that correctly. The US was an ally of Saddam Hussein who used chemical weapons. Now do you see why George W. thought in 2003 he would find weapons of mass destruction?

Meanwhile, Iranians were not that impressed with a theocratical form of government. The ayatollahs allowed the election of a secular president (who would take orders from them). The sixth and current president of Iran is of course Ahmadinejad. He is the least cooperative with the ayatollahs and is the most hellbent on creating a nuclear weapons capability for Iran. He idolizes the rich history of the Persian Empire and seeks to regain it through the acquisition of nuclear weapons. It is important to understand that the Iranians are Persians, not Arabs. Therefore they are much more inclined to move unilaterally compared to an Arabian country.

Secretary Clinton recognizes this proclivity and has stated outright that the acquisition of nuclear weapons technology by Iran is unacceptable. Ahmadinejad counters by stating Iranian nuclear reactors are strictly for peaceful purposes. Israel is not buying it and has threatened a unilateral (read, non-US) airstrike to take the reactors out. Many (including myself) felt the air campaign against Libya was more of a cautionary tale for Iran than actually supporting Libyan rebels.

A few weeks ago, the US media was not buying a supposed plot uncovered by the Department of Homeland Security staring Iran (surprise!) sponsoring Mexican drug lords (another surprise!) to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the US (who?). The plot was such a stretch that none of the cable news networks bought the story. It was quickly overcome by other stories and dropped.

Now the BBC is reporting this explosion at a Revolutionary Guards base. Perhaps I'm just jaded but I suspect we may find out US or Israeli special forces are responsible. Even if they are not, we may see Ahmadinejad claiming they were. May we live in interesting times.

BBC News

Iranian Situation

Syria and Egypt continue to experience violence between the government and citizens creating potential flash points in either country.

In the meantime, Iran presents the most destablizing scenario of any Middle Eastern country. President Ahmedinajad, through a series of political missteps, faces the very real possibility of being forced to step down. Nepotism and narcism have left the President in a untenable position opposite the powerful Ayatollah. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been the only Middle Easter countries to thus far avoid any of the turmoil from the Arab spring (although Iran is not an Arab state, they are of course Persians).

Ahmedinajad stepping down should in theory reduce tensions with the United States. However, any number of his potential successors can take an ever harder stance against the West. Now comes the news that Iran has secretly been testing missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The Hague has declared this a violation of UN Resolution 1929 which means with the political turmoil in Tehran, tensions could escalate into hostilities.

Ahmedinajad

Iranian Nuclear Missile Test

"apostasy from God"

A question generated by Usama bin Laden's killing is does this mean the end of combat operations in Afghanistan? If so, then the troops can either be sent home or redeployed elsewhere. The most likely scenario would seem to be some type of advising or constabulary role in Libya (as a side note, Qaddafi has to be very nervous after the news of UBL). But now a new specter has arisen.

Most of the news on Iran has focused on Ahmadinejad and his efforts to develop a nuclear weapons capability. Iran has also made several statements reasserting its ownership of the Persian Gulf. All of this would seem to indicate that Ahmadinejad was in a fairly strong position within Iran and was thus able to posture with the ability to execute if needed.

Now comes a story from The Guardian which sheds new light on the problems between Ahmadinejad and the cleric Ayatollah Khamenei. At first look, this would appear to be a predictable squabble between a bureaucrat and a theocrat. However, there is something even more surprising at the core of the two leaders problems.

Ahmadinejad believes the imminent return of the Hidden Imam Mahdi – the revered saviour of Shia Islam, whose reappearance is anticipated by believers in a manner comparable to that with which Christian fundamentalists anticipate the second coming of Jesus. Mahdi is believed to be the ultimate savior of mankind and the final Imam of the Twelve Imams. The Twelve Imams are the spiritual and political successors to Muhammad, the Prophet of Islam, in the Twelver branch of Shī‘ah Islam.

The reaction by the Ayatollah and his supporters is to charge Ahmandinejad and his staff with sorcery. This means Iran could itself in the midst of an internal conflict as the Twelvers and Ayatollah battle for control of the country. If Iran has nuclear weapons, the winner would thus have control. A theocracy with nuclear weapons could become a major threat in the region. The US may end up in a conflict with Iran over an internal religious conflict.

Ahmadinejad allies charged with sorcery |The Guardian