Iran Says It Shot Down Unmanned U.S. Plane

Earlier today, Iran claimed to have shot down a unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) fly by the United States. The shoot down allegedly occurred near the border between Iran and Afghanistan. The drone that went down wasn't just any drone but the RQ-170 Sentinel which is a stealth aircraft able to avoid detection by enemy radars.

The attack was later denied by the US claiming while a drone did crash it was due to mechanical failure. An earlier report by Iran that they had shot down back in July proved false.

If the reports are true this time, it means the US has to rethink its stealth technology used in the RQ-170. More than likely, drones have been operating in Iranian airspace gathering intelligence on the potential nuclear weapons program bragged about by Ahmandinejad. The situation is eerily similar to when Francis Gary Powers U-2 was downed by the Soviet Union. The United States thought the U-2 flew high enough to avoid missiles but they were wrong. The presence of US drones in Iran indicates the level of concern Washington has about Iran's nuclear program.

The presence of the drones is likely to ignite further problems for the US after last week's attack in Pakistan that killed two dozen residents. Support for US forces in the region has waned and this latest situation more give more support to Iran.

WSJ.com

Sky News

Pakistan lets China see US helicopter

The Financial Times is reporting that Pakistan has shared the tail section of the stealth helicopter used on the raid to kill Osama bin Laden.

The SEALs smashed the avionics and used explosives to destroy the fuselage but according to the FT, the tail section landed outside the compound. It was this act that has fueled all manner of speculation to the type of helicopter used and whether the team on board may have been killed.

The report illustrates the relationship with Beijing is much stronger than with Washington. For some reason, both the US government and media try to portray a positive relationship with Pakistan. History does not support this. During the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan, the CIA sold sniper rifles and Stinger missiles to mujahaieen. After the Soviets left, Pakistan showed North Korea the Stinger missiles and traded the sniper rifles for new batteries to power the missiles.

Islamabad has been portraying the US military of late as a secretive, uncooperative tenant that indiscriminately kills Paksitani citizens. The US can't fight the Taliban with ground forces unless it maintains a presence in Pakistan. By sharing the helicopter section, Pakistan shows the relationships have gone from cold to strained. The US may have to end operations in Afghanistan not because the Taliban has been defeated but the relationship with Pakistan is too complicated.

FT.com

Pakistan Arrests C.I.A. Informants in Bin Laden Raid

At a closed briefing last week, members of the Senate Intelligence Committee asked Michael J. Morell, the deputy C.I.A. director, to rate Pakistan’s cooperation with the United States on counterterrorism operations, on a scale of 1 to 10.

“Three,” Mr. Morell replied, according to officials familiar with the exchange. --NY Times

Where to begin, where to begin? The relationship between Pakistan and the United States is a study of illusion and political posturing. If we go back to the 1980s, we meet a young Osama bin Laden fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan. The United States felt a little payback was in order for all of the support the Soviet Union gave North Vietnam. The CIA began supplying the Mujahadeen (freedom fighters) Stinger missiles since the Afghanis were getting decimated by Soviet Mi-24 helicopters.

The recipient of these Stinger missiles was our then friend, and future most wanted terrorist, Osama bin Laden. The missiles took out the Mi-24s, and many feel, led to the Soviet withdrawal. So why then did Osama bin Laden attack the US? The Reagan administration, especially the CIA, assumed Osama bin Laden was an ally since he was fighting a common enemy. However, the whole reason the Saudi was in Afghanistan in the first place was because of his extreme Islamic beliefs. Osama bin Laden felt the United States had no more business being in Afghanistan than the Soviet Union.

Osama bin Laden fought in Afghanistan but was actually based in Pakistan. After the Soviet withdrawal, the Pakistanis gave the remaining Stingers to North Korea in the hopes the special batteries could be reverse engineered. You have to wonder what Pakistan received in return for those missiles (and sniper rifles).

Flash forward to earlier this year when a CIA "contractor" killed two ISI (Pakistani intelligence service) agents. The killings marked the previous months of bombings by US forces based in Afghanistan on tribal areas in Pakistan. The Pakistanis were not pleased.

Given the history of Osama bin Laden operating from Pakistan during the Soviet invasion, it is not so surprising to discover he was hiding out in Pakistan before the SEALs came knocking. The killing of Osama bin Laden publicly raised the question of just how committed Pakistan is to fighting Al Qaeda. There are public reports that Al Qaeda may have placed operatives in the Pakistani military.

Now Pakistan has arrested the CIA informants and in the media it looks like a surprise. In reality, this is a continuation of what has been developing between the United States and Pakistan going on 30 years. The real problem for the United States is Pakistan may not allow armed drones to be flown out of their bases forcing the US to relocated the drones to Afghanistan.

A story that seems to have already been forgotten is China's announcement several weeks ago that it will not tolerate any military action by the US in Pakistan.

The story of the United States and Pakistan is far from over and will not get resolved before the 2012 election.

NYTimes.com

Raymond Davis released

With everything else going on, it is easy to forget why Pakistan may no longer be an all of the United States:

A CIA security contractor jailed in Pakistan was acquitted Wednesday of the January shooting deaths of two Pakistani men in Lahore, in a case that has seriously tested U.S.-Pakistani relations.

The dramatic incident came to a close when the families of the deceased pardoned Raymond Davis in court. In exchange, an attorney for the relatives says they received more than $2 million in compensation.

American's Release Doesn't End Turmoil In Pakistan : NPR

34 warships sent from US for Obama visit

Two things pop into mind reading this story. First, the huge cost of moving these ships plus the Secret Service detail (including vehicles) could probably help pay off part of the national debt. If India is so dangerous that we need to put all of this in place, why go? Our relations with Pakistan have suffered as a result of the Taliban's resurgence and US military actions causing civilians deaths. However, warming up to India does nothing to improve things in Southeast Asia. The whole trip is going to be a very expensive publicity stunt with little to no benefit to our foreign policies.

Update: Cost per day for this is $200 million.

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