The Fallacy of Blaming the Russians

After Malaysia Flight 17 was shot down, the world swung its finger of blame around and pointed it squarely at Russia and Vladmir Putin.  Led by the US, the blame game started with the notion that Flight 17 had been shotdown by a Russian SA-11.  Given the altitude and speed of the Boeing 777 at the time, the SA-11 made the most sense and is in the possession of the rebels in Ukraine.  The SA-11 is made in Russia and due the complexity of the guidance system, the rebels must've been trained by the Russians.  Ipso facto, it was Russia's fault.

But wait, has anyone actually seen pictures or videos of a SA-11 firing a missile?  Has a person, much less a location, been identified as the person responsible for launching the missile?  The Associated Press today released a story about the lack of evidence, so far, presented by the US in their case against Russia.

In countries like the US and UK, surveillance cameras are a constant part of our lives.  Therefore, we tend to think of the whole world as being constantly under surveillance.  Perceptions though can be misleading as was demonstrated yesterday when a US flag flying on the Brooklyn Bridge was taken down and replaced with a white flag by unknown person or persons.  Yes, in New York City on a major bridge and landmark an operation requiring specialized skill was executed without any a single image being captured.  The Brooklyn Bridge is under constant surveillance but apparently the unknown person or persons had already defeated the lens on the camera.  As I said, this required great skill and coordination.

My point in bringing up the white flag on the Brooklyn Bridge was to illustrate just how faulty our perception of constant surveillance can be.  The human minds looks to fit bits of divergent information into some type of coherent story.  Hence stage magicians are able to trick our eyes into believing they have somehow sawed a girl in half or made a skyscraper disappear.  Our minds have only certain pieces of information and as it races to make a conclusion, the trick works.

Perhaps as our pro-Western, anti-Russian mindset swings into action we are looking to blame Russia and are not looking for answers that contradict that mindset.  The SA-11 remains the most likely suspect, however we are basing that assumption without having actually seen the wreckage.  Another possibility is that instead of a SA-11 a fighter jet could have shot down Flight 17.  It seems unlikely that air defense radars would not have seen a fighter firing on a civilian airliner but that assumes they were looking.  We have already seen limitations in radar coverage with the still missing Malaysian Flight 370.

One nagging question remains unanswered, why shoot down a civilian airliner at all?  If the SA-11 was involved, it has a radar that is quite capable of identifying the flight path, altitude and transponder code (key components in aircraft identification by air defense units).  Flight 17 was flying at 33,000 feet which is well within the parameters of the SA-11 radars.  It is unlikely that Malaysian Flight 17 was mistaken for a military aircraft that had veered off course.

A fighter interceptor has the same ability to identify aircraft as an air defense unit with one noted addition.  Fighters can visually identify aircraft by flying close to the aircraft for a positive ID.  It is thus unlikely that Malaysian Flight 17 was shot down accident or even randomly.

If whoever shot down the airliner intended to hit that specific aircraft, the nagging question is why?  At any given time, there are dozens of airliners and smaller aircraft flying overhead.  If someone wanted to escalate war between Russian and the US or Europe, why fire on a Malaysian airliner?

An answer may lie in a bizarre story that keeps popping up.  The pro-Russian rebel commander was quoted by the press as saying "not all of the bodies were fresh".  He added that many of the bodies were drained of blood and reeked of decomposition.  Far-fetched and sounds like something out of a sci-fi movie but sometimes the most bizarre things cause people to do the unthinkable.  If the story is true, perhaps Malaysian Flight 17 was thought to be carrying some type of bio-weapon?  The Ukraine conflict serves as plausible deniability for the real group behind the shoot down.  Blame the Russians and get the US in a lather and no one looks for answers elsewhere.

Hilary Clinton (the as yet unannounced Presidential candidate for 2016) has jumped on the blame Russia bandwagon and encouraged the European Union to find alternatives to the dollar-dumping Russian natural gas firm Gazprom.  Her plea is supposedly based on the downing of Malaysian Flight 17 but the timing seems much more in line with the announcement by the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) of the creation of their own development bank based on the Chinese Yen.  The one-two punch of the creation of the BRICS development bank and the Russian-Chinese energy deal has pretty much nullified the effects of Western economic sanctions.

Winston Churchill once said, "I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."  His quote may not just apply to Russia anymore.

The Strange Case of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370

By now, pretty much everyone who reads the Internet or watches the news has heard about this incident. But for those who may not or for future reference, here are what details we know about the flight prior to its disappearance.

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 headed to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur, locally at 12:41 am Saturday (Friday afternoon ET), March 8, 2014, air traffic controllers in Subang, outside Kuala Lumpur, lost contact with the Boeing 777 plane over the Gulf of Thailand between Malaysia and Vietnam, 90 nautical miles northeast of Kota Bharu, Malaysia. Malaysia Airlines’ Boeing 777 asset was last tracked at 1722 Zulu (1:22 am local), when it disappeared from radar contact.  I've marked the approximate area on the map below.

The only other factor we know for sure is the aircraft attempted to "turnaround".  It is unclear if this means a full 180 degree turn back to its point of origin or if it was a more abrupt 90 degree turn indicating a loss of altitude (and the turn is an attempt to avoid other aircraft in the route).

The first point many articles fail to point out is that aircraft operating under IFR aren't truly tracked by radar as in the beam reflected off of the skin of the aircraft, but rather but the transponder signal received by the radar antenna.  It is the reason why the final location of the aircraft is alluding authorities.  Once the transponder was turned off or destroyed, FL 370 disappeared from air traffic control radars.  Any AWACS in the area would have been able to still track it as military radars look at both skin reflection as well as transponders.

The second point is the black box (which is actually a bright color such as red or orange so you can find it) emits a locating signal but that signal is very weak.  The signal is only good for several thousand yards and that assumes it isn't underwater.

The third point is why didn't Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 squawk either "7500" for hijacking or "7700" for emergency?  If the disappearance was due to some type of hijacking or terrorist incident, then the pilot and co-pilots may have been overwhelmed or killed before they could react.  If not then a terrorist or hijacking, then there is the possibility something in the environment effected the crew before they could enter the transponder code.  If oxygen levels slowly dropped, reaction times for the pilots may have prevented them from acting accordingly.  

The fourth is the lack of debris.  If Flight 370 exploded in mid-flight or crashed into the ocean, there should be signs of debris floating in the ocean.  Seat cushions, life vests and baggage should be visible on the surface.  Some speculate this is a sign that is was diverted and forced to land somewhere.  This seems unlikely as it is damn hard to find land strips long enough for a Boeing 777 much less keep witnesses from seeing it.  The only explanation that makes sense right now is that searchers aren't looking in the right place.

The Boeing 777 has operated for nearly 20 years with an impeccable record so it seems unlikely that the disappearance of Flight 370 is related to some type of mechanical failure.  It is also unlikely that a missile was used to bring down the aircraft.  Missiles leave smoke trails and radar signatures that would have been seen.  

The majority of passengers on this flight were Chinese with 154 citizens. Additionally, 38 Malaysians, 7 Indonesians, 6 Australians, 5 Indian, 4 French, 3 Americans, 2 New Zealanders, 2 Canadians, 1 Austrian, 1 Dutch, 1 Italian, and 1 Russian were reported to be aboard.  Based on this, a motivation for a terrorist to target this flight seems unlikely.  There are numerous reports of passengers using bogus passports.  While certainly suspicious, one has to wonder how many other flights have passengers using bogus identities?  Of these, how many result in an aircraft disappearing?

The turn would indicate the pilots suspected something but since they did not radio anything, it would support a scenario involving a hijacker.  But if hijacked, why blow up the aircraft over the ocean once you already have control of it? 

I suspect we may find out a new type of attack was used.  Some type of either cyber or advanced weaponry.  A cyber attack could have be launched against the Boeing's on-board systems rendering the pilots unable to control the aircraft or radio for help.  It is not outside the realm of possibility especially if one of the people carrying a fake passport were involved.  Flying over the ocean, the aircraft could have been hit with some type of advanced weapon from a ship or satellite that knocked out its navigation systems and radios.  If I'm right, governments and militaries would be extremely reluctant for this information to get out.  It would mean that any civilian airliner could be targeted (and potential even military aircraft).

What is most disconcerting to me is the timing.  This happened right after Russia's move into the Crimea.  It seems to me like someone (and not necessarily the Russians) wants to keep the world off balance.

UPDATE:  The Chinese government has released satellite images which may show debris from missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.  The photos, found on the website for the Chinese State Administration for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (SASTIND), show what appears to be a floating object in the South China Sea, according to CNN.--Raycom Media Network