ISIS top 100, World War III?

Stories have been breaking over the weekend that Daesh has posted a list of 100 troops names and addresses.  The terrorist group was able to comb press releases and compile information from social media to come up with the names.  "The US Marine Corps urged personnel to ‘check their online footprint’ after the so-called Islamic State released the alleged identities and addresses of 100 staff officials, calling on adherents to kill them."  (RT)  Want a sure fire way to neutralize this threat?  The Sec Def should immediately require all active duty personnel to be issued and wear their sidearms at all times.  Up the rhetoric to the terrorist levels by adding that "any military personnel (including those who have separated or retired) will be found NOT be charge with any crime as a result of shooting and/or killing who was in the midst of committing an act of terrorism as defined by the Department of Defense or FBI."

While the Americans are being led to hate one another because of race, they are too busy to notice that Daesh is getting very serious about operations outside their own area:

"Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon believes that every British ISIS fighter will have been given chemical weapons training in the hope they will come back to launch an attack.

The retired head of chemical and biological weapons for the Army believes the Tube or sporting events could be the target."  (Daily Mail)

Daesh does not give a damn about if you are white, black, Latino, Asian or any other flavor of American.  Be at the wrong place at the wrong time and they will kill you just as soon as anyone else.  The only way to counter this culture of fear is to empower Americans to defend themselves.

During the early days of the Cold War, the government decided the best way to manage widespread fear of nuclear war was to convince the public they could survive it.  Hence "Duck and cover" was released and while we can now see how patently ridiculous this campaign was, the interesting thing is the government back then wanted Americans to be responsible for their own safety.

Today's White House pretends to be about empowerment (kids eating healthy, race relations, rights for illegal immigrants) but the effect is just the opposite of "duck and cover".  Americans don't trust the police, don't' trust the government and increasingly don't trust other Americans that don't look like them.  The creation of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was supposed to symbolize American's renewed focus on defending the homeland but recent stories (such as Ferguson, Eric Brown, hiring immigrants as police officers) has made Americans feel less safe.

Focusing on keeping Iran from developing nuclear weapons is also making us less safe.  The headlines and Washington sound bytes assure us that a nuclear armed Iran is unthinkable and the President has to put all of his focus on this issue (and somehow not Daesh?).  It's fascinating to watch how Iran's potential, not actual" nuclear capability is of far more concern to the White House than is Russia's actual nuclear inventory.  Or China's.

In the not too distant past, there was much press about the "Pivot to Asia" under then Secretary of State Clinton.  The policy supposedly recognized that by focusing on defeating terrorism, the US had taken its strategic view away from an ever expanding China.  The "pivot" was supposed to get US efforts refocused on containing China (especially in light is its rapidly expanding economy and surging military).  But Clinton and then Kerry became kiddy at the thought that they could use the Arab Spring to gain US advantage in the Middle East.  Their lack of focused has introduced a different scenario to World War III than most people think.

The most obvious and alarming scenario to the next World War is with Russia over something like the anti-missile system in Europe or if Russia expands their buffer zones via the areas in Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania.  But a wholly different scenario has been developing eerily similar to the days prior to the First World War.

The Economist's "Look Back With Angst" from 2013 shows how pre-war Europe believed "Globalisation and new technology—the telephone, the steamship, the train—had knitted the world together," much as we view smart devices, social media and the Internet today.  For all of the good that has come as a result of these latest technologies, we need only look to how one shooting in Ferguson was able to set race relations in the US back decades (would the reaction have been the same without social media?).  Like in the early 20th Century, many are still of the delusion that war that globalization eliminates the possibility of a global war.  John Maynard Keynes has a wonderful image of a Londoner of the time, “sipping his morning tea in bed” and ordering “the various products of the whole earth” to his door, much as he might today from Amazon—and regarding this state of affairs as “normal, certain and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement”.--The Economist

Instead of Britain, France and Germany, the essay sees China as in the role of pre-war Germany, Japan in the role of pre-war France and the US playing the role of a fading British Empire.

"Yet the parallels remain troubling. The United States is Britain, the superpower on the wane, unable to guarantee global security. Its main trading partner, China, plays the part of Germany, a new economic power bristling with nationalist indignation and building up its armed forces rapidly. Modern Japan is France, an ally of the retreating hegemon and a declining regional power. The parallels are not exact—China lacks the Kaiser’s territorial ambitions and America’s defence budget is far more impressive than imperial Britain’s—but they are close enough for the world to be on its guard."--The Economist

It may often seem that the Middle East will lead us into a major conflict and it is tempting at times to reminisce about the days of the Cold War and try to cast Russia in the role of its former self but the Economist makes some truly valid comparisons.  The comparisons of which the current occupants of the White House and State Department are even less concerned with than Keynes portrayal of a pre-war Londoner.

What's next for the White House?

Talking over world events with a friend the other night, it seems we are at some tipping point.  Nothing has thus far started a major conflict, everything seems to be contained to a region.  Some theorizes that this may be the new "normal" for wars, keeping things regionalized which keep costs down.

The theory doesn't allow for the acquisition of new territory which in the end is why most wars are fought.  The Sunnis for example feel they have been left out by Maliki and have thus resorted to war.  Putin felt Russia had receded far enough and annexed Crimea.  China and Japan are rehashing old claims to islands from nearly a century ago.  Japanese and Chinese aircraft are nearly bumping into each other over disputed airspace.  Russian fighters have overflown American warships in the Black Sea at extremely low altitudes.

In the 21st Century, the acquisition of territory is almost always about safety.  In modern times safety equates to access to cheap energy (oil).  The White House isn't worried about the American public tiring of war, the war is often the last thing on the minds of people (unless they themselves or their loved ones are serving).  The White House IS worried about the price of gasoline sky-rocketing as a result of a major conflict in the Middle East.  Rising gas prices would not help the Democrats in mid-term elections and would damage Hillary's chances at getting elected.

Gas prices effect not only how much you pay at the pump but how much consumer goods cost at the store.  Soaring gas prices, or worse a gas embargo, would also cripple the US military.  The jet fuel it takes to fly all of those sorties still comes from the oil pumped out of the ground in the Middle East.  About 10 years ago, the USAF successfully tested a synthetic jet fuel made from shale.  The continental US sits atop huge reserves of shale so if the technology has matured enough, the synthetic jet fuel could keep the F-35s turning and burning without regard to OPEC.  The question is does the process the USAF came with have enough capacity for all of the branches of the service?

The Navy went on better.  They have unveiled a technology for turning seawater into fuel at a cost of $3-$6 a barrel.  The article can be found here.  The process has the benefit of reducing CO2 levels in the ocean and it would eliminate the demand for oil from the Middle East.  Good news, right?  Well except for one thing, the timing of this means the Navy is a position to wait out any conflicts in the Middle East and still be able to run its non-nuclear ships.

Now let's follow that a step further.  The Air Force is rapidly follow out of favor with drones the have a bad habit of falling on innocent bystanders, nuclear launch officers who cheat, sexual assault scandals, and state of the art fighters that spend more time in hangars than in the air.  The Army takes too long to get anywhere and needs too much stuff to win.

The Navy is self-sufficient with ships and airplanes.  The Navy doesn't need expensive overseas bases to operate from.  Their nuclear forces are being benchmarked by the USAF to try to improve the readiness of Global Strike Command airmen.  Navy ships also carry Marines that can land on the shores and take-over stuff if needed.  Now with the ability to run everything on seawater, the Navy may have come back to forefront and give the White House an option to use to wage war.

But even this White House can't just wage war without some type of impetus.  Syria failed to provide enough justification for Obama, even after the use of chemical weapons.  Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons made great sound bytes but provided Obama with even less of a reason to go to war.

Iraq was supposed to be his victory lap in having pulled all the troops out but Washington's trust in Maliki blinded them to his actions.  Maliki marginalized and oppressed the Sunnis and Kurds.  Further complicating matters was the US decision to completely disassemble the Iraqi military and build anew.  The Iraqi military of Saddam Hussein had seen battle many times.  The Iraqi military of Maliki is completely new and is having to operate without their US mentors for the first time.  The results have not been impressive;

After tens of thousands of desertions, the Iraqi military is reeling from what one U.S. official described as “psychological collapse” in the face of the offensive from militants of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).--The Washington Post

The Sunnis have the Shiites on the ropes.  Contrary to the naysayers, the Sunnis are a bigger threat for they are the majority through Middle East.  The British intelligence agencies are quite concerned that Sunnis in the UK might be inspired towards terrorist attacks since the UK and US did nothing to help them in their fight against Maliki.

It's a stretch but this may be where the White House finds its reason to go to war.  A British 9/11 could give Obama the reason he lacks to go back into Iraq or finally attack Syria.  Of course the Sunnis most likely have operatives here in the US as well and another major attack on US soil could inspire the White House.

I never like the obvious, I think the reason for the US to go to war has yet to come out.  Perhaps Japan and China finally get tired of playing chicken and finally launch forces.  Perhaps North Korea fires a missile at Japan.  I don't think this White House will launch any kind of military action to protect the Southwest border although the continued flood of illegal immigrants here poses the most immediate threat (and where is DHS in all of this?).

The impact of ISR on "multilateral partnerships"

The President's speech at West Point on Wednesday should have been a no-brainer.  A military audience, by regulation, can't express negativity to elected leaders so it was a very safe environment for Obama to trout out his international vision for the remaining days of his presidency.  But alas, our for the President this was not to be the case.  The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has been called up out of the bullpen to pitch since the leading pitcher has failed to strike out his critics (sorry, it is baseball season and the analogy was just too easy).

First up, Gen Dempsey had to reassure allies in the Middle East that the US was not politically exhausted even though the US has already announced troop withdrawals for Afghanistan after 13 years.  He tried to persuade his audience that its because al-Qaeda was a "shadow of its former self" as reasons for the drawdown.  But then he does right on to say that al-Qaeda has adapted and now they are a threat elsewhere.  Given that logic, should the troops then be sent "elsewhere" to deal with al-Qaeda if the US truly isn't exhausted?

While Dempsey was trying to calm fears in the United Arab Emirates, our allies in Asia and Europe were also less than impressed with President Obama's speech.  Since Dempsey can't be at two places at once, he sent in his own relief pitcher Adm. James “Sandy” Winnefeld, vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.  Besides reiterating America’s “iron-clad” commitment to the European Phased Adaptive Approach — designed to stop a handful of Iranian missiles, not hundreds of Russian ones — the admiral also put in good words for Japan, South Korea, Israel, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. (Breaking Defense).  Basically pulling out of Afghanistan (and Iraq previously) doesn't mean we are going to let Iran off the hook.

But in order to do so, the Gulf nations have to share information that would allow that type of missile defense system to be created need to thwart Iran.  The first problem is the lack of trust amongst the Gulf nations.  Just getting the various reps from those countries to sit down has proven impossible.  The second problem is once they do and asked for US technology, the Washington political system slows things down to a crawl.

A similar situation exists in Asia, who feels especially slighted by the President's speech on Wednesday which made no mention of them.  To keep North Korea at bay, the US needs its partners in Asia to work together which perhaps shows a bias on the part of Washington.  President Obama, and to be fair other US Presidents as well, tend to treat Asia with a broad bush.  To them, it is easier to think of Asia as one amalgamation of culture.  This simplistic view misses the long history of war and exploitation amongst countries such as China and Japan.

Japan, now our biggest Pacific ally, was once our enemy when the Japanese Empire threatened to take over the entire Pacific Rim.  Amongst many atrocities, Japan invaded Korea and cut down all its trees for the Imperial Army.  But we need Japan and South Korea to forget about all of that nasty stuff that happened during the war and pretend like they trust each other long enough to keep North Korea in check.  At best Japan and South Korea are indifferent to one another.  Sharing intelligence between the two nations is difficult at best.  Now with Japan squabbling with China over islands to the north, it is becoming even more difficult to get South Korea to believe Imperial Japan is not start to arise from the ashes.

The gap in trust amongst our Middle Eastern and Pacific allies is reflective of the gap between Obama's promise to do more to more to assist our partners in fighting al-Qaeda.  That promise means the US will have to increase intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) efforts, which is going to be damn near impossible since Obama has cut funding for ISR.  Those same partners that Obama wants to build partnerships with depend, no expect, to provide the ISR resources need for dealing with al-Qaeda or Iran and North Korea.

"Decisions already made in the president’s fiscal year 2015 budget request will cut available ISR. In particular, the Air Force justified decisions to reduce its medium-altitude long-endurance ISR (MQ-1 Predators and MQ-9 Reapers) in order to prepare for future wars (namely, the growing threat of anti-access environments). Should budget pressures continue, the Air Force has threatened deeper cuts in these systems, along with reductions in high-altitude long-endurance RQ-4 Global Hawk Block 40—the very aircraft that is supposed to fill the shoes of the U-2, which the Air Force also decided to retire in this budget."--Defense One

Let's not forget that we are not just lacking what is needed for the known, but we are also lacking ISR resources for the new areas of responsibility such as Africa;

"Gen. David Rodriguez at U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), who in March told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he had only 11 percent of his ISRneeds met. Whether Mali, Somalia, the regional hunt for Joseph Kony, or missing schoolgirls in Nigeria, the need forISR to find “needles in the haystack” is significant on the continent. In AFRICOM’s area of responsibility, ISR has been a key part of U.S. counterterrorism support efforts Obama cited as models in this next phase of the war, such as support to French-led efforts in the trans-Sahel."--Defense One

President Obama's father is African, not African-American.  The distinction is none of his father's ancestors were ever slaves in the US. It should also mean that Africa was a priority for President Obama which it has not.  When he finally did become involved, it was due to a faction of al-Qaeda which his previous Secretary of State (Hillary Clinton) would not designate as a terrorist group.  The current Secretary of State, John Kerry, had to step in to try to mitigate the damage.

"When Secretary of State John F. Kerry announced early this month that the Obama administration was rushing a team of experts to help Nigerian officials rescue 276 abducted schoolgirls, the hope in Washington was that Nigerians would react with gratitude and energetic cooperation."--Reuters

The first chance to step in and aid, not invade, a sovereign African nation and you can guess what is going to happen.

"Instead, the U.S. assistance mission here — cloaked in secrecy and producing only vague hints of progress after six weeks of joint efforts to find and free the girls kidnapped by Boko Haram militants — has produced a more ambivalent and critical response.

One reason is the strong patriotic pride among citizens of this independent, oil-rich nation with a large professional security force that President Goodluck Jonathan said Thursday he had ordered to carry out a “full-scale operation” against the militants. While there is appreciation for the U.S. help, there is also resentment of what some Ni­ger­ian commentators call “neocolonial” meddling."--Reuters

"Neocolonial meddling" that might be the best term for how US foreign policy is viewed by Nigeria and other nations.    Meddling, not assisting or aiding.  And now we can't even offer our ISR resources a token for meddling.

p.s. As I was composing this, it was announced the Shinseki resigned.  Almost immediately afterwards Press Secretary Jay Carney announced his retirement.  Shinseki resignation is of course more symbolic than meaningful since the Veterans Administration didn't break overnight.  It also means that it will take many years to fix and most likely it will be left to the next administration to deal with in a meaningful way.  Carney's resignation is overdue.  Typically press secretaries leave after the first term in office if the President is re-elected.  He overstayed his welcome.

World War Three

The polar vortex that hit the last two days has closed the college and left me with more time to read and write.  A few days ago, Max Hastings posted an article about why he thought the deteriorating relationships between the US and China could lead to the next world war.

As was the case in World War I, neither the Chinese nor the US are looking to start a war.  However, China will not be denied its future role as a global economic and military superpower.  The US is no longer interested or able to go head to head with China (at least not publicly).  What might provide then the catalyst for war?

Interestingly the answer is Japan.  The Japanese Instrument of Surrender, the formal ending of the Japanese Empire and hostilities of WWII, also ended the Japanese military as anything other than a self-defense force.  Very similar in fact to what happened in Germany.

The United States has maintained a large military presence in Japan more out of its commitment to protect Japan against aggression from China than as an occupying power.  The US military, since at least the Reagan administration, has thought to re-evaluate this relationships but the Japanese government has historically tended to prefer to focus its GDP towards its economy rather than defense.

Recently this relationship has begun to change.  Washington is beginning to once again look to Japan to assume more responsibility for its own defense and Tokyo is now more receptive.  Herein lies the real root of the problem.

Japan has never admitted to the atrocities it committed against China and Korea during the war.  In comparison, Germany has openly acknowledged the Holocaust and criminalized Nazism.  The lack of admitting Japan's atrocities is what lies in China's fear that that US is looking to pull out of its role in Japan.

This lead to a whether alarming statement by the Chinese ambassador to London that "Japan risks ‘a serious threat to global peace’ by ‘rekindling’ the bellicose attitude that hastened the expansion of World War II into a global conflict."--The Nation

With this as a backdrop, is it no wonder that the Chinese have felt compelled to expand their air defense zone?  Similarly the United States has spent over $6 billion at Andersen AFB as part of a reinforcement program.

Let's not forget the continued struggle between Japan and Russia over the disputed Northern Territories (specifically the Kuril Islands, which has prevented a peace treaty being signed between Russia and Japan since WWII).

The Kuril Islands were annexed by the Soviet Union during World War II and remain under the control of Russia which is why in Feb 2011, then Russian President Medvedev ordered a significant increase in reinforcements of the islands when it look like Japan may lay claim.

The issues though actually date back to Czarist Russia when the quest for a warm water port lead Czar Nicholas II to attack Japan in 1904.  Partially out of bad advice from his own people but also partially the noting that the Japanese were somehow a backwards people. the Czar believed this was sure fire way to increase his political standing with little risk.  Unfortunately the Japanese were now a modern, early 20th Century military and defeated the Russian Navy (and also ended the era of the Czars, leading to the Russian Revolution and the start of the Soviet Union).

The victory by Japan emboldened their desires of the Empire to expand.  The loss by Russia was sought to be revenged in part by the Soviet take over of the Kuril Islands.  Is it any wonder that according to a 2012 Pew Global Attitudes Project survey, 72% of Japanese people view Russia unfavorably, compared with 22% who viewed it favorably, making Japan the most anti-Russian nation in the world?

The Chinese remember the Japanese invasion of 1937 resulting the Massacre of Nanking where, according to estimates by International Military Tribunal of the Far East, over 200,000 Chinese civilians and disarmed combatants were murdered by the Japanese Imperial Army.

So do the Souther Koreans.  Just last month, South Korean President Park Geun-hye said she rejects flatly any idea of meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe until Japan apologises for wrongdoings during its 35-year occupation of Korea.

South Korea wants a deeper apology and greater compensation for an estimated 200,000 South Korean “comfort women” who were forced to work as prostitutes in Japanese military brothels during the occupation. Everything to do with the 1910-45 Japanese occupation of Korea, brutal and authoritarian even compared with most other imperial occupations, still festers--The Independent

It has looked to me for some time that major hostilities could be started over Syria and Iran (and nothing today makes my think that still can't happen), I think we must also now consider how old hostilities in the Pacific may be creating an even more volatile situation than the Middle East.

Japan's elephant in the room

As I still continue to mull over my thoughts about Operation Prism and Syria, I came across this article. The military capabilities of the Japanese SDF may come as a surprise to some. Back in 1989, I was stationed at Tyndall AFB going through the air weapons controller undergraduate course. Just a few weeks before, a Japanese F-15 had clipped the guy-wire of a radio mast. The mast subsequently smashed the F-15 out of the sky killing the pilot. It was the first time that I realized Japan had F-15s and their pilots were training right along with American fighter pilots. Flash forward to 2004 and while taking a tour of and airbase in Kuwait, I was surprised to see C-130s that were painted robin's egg blue with the Japanese red sun. Japan had quietly entered into Operation Iraqi freedom stretching the limits of their constitution even further. The British and Australians were fascinated to observe how the Yanks and Japanese would get along. The Japanese possessed the skills, training and equipment to be on par with American forces. They wanted to prove themselves and to my experience, they more than showed that they are a true military. As they continue to increase capabilities, I wonder though what unintended consequences there will be. For example, North Korean and China do not have the best experiences with imperial Japan and the modern day build-up may be seen as a return to the old days with a much more aggressive Japan.

Al Jazeera

Inertia

While the UN debates, Gaddafi's forces are making inroads against the rebels heading towards Benghazi. How did it turn things around? Airpower. I am not in favor of a no-fly zone because it creates too many opportunities for civilian casualties. However, the UN and US inactivity in this matter is almost as bad.

Meanwhile the Egyptians aren't doing too well. One of the protesters was interviewed on NPR yesterday. He had been recently caught and tortured by the Egyptian Army.

Things in Bahrain are worsening with the introduction of Saudi troops to quell the unrest. There is a very strong potential for this situation to create a regional conflict and cause Saudi Arabia to experience the unrest they have thus far been able to avoid.

I have several Facebook "friends" who added me as a friend due to my views on the 2nd and 10th Amendments. Many of these people are of the belief that the situation in Japan is being hyped and is not nearly as dangerous as being portrayed. One otherwise rational lady feels justified in this belief because the Japanese are so adept at nuclear power.

I don't doubt the Japanese technicians and their abilities. But Mother Nature just sent them the biggest earthquake they have ever seen along with multiple aftershocks and tsunamis. My money in on Mother Nature, the minute we start to think we can control the earth she ups the ante.

Now the Japanese, who have been in denial, are finally admitting the meltdown is not really a 4 but more like a 6 (Three Mile Island) and may become a 7 (Chernobyl). Seventeen US sailors were exposed to radiation during relief efforts and had to be decontaminated. The USS Ronald Reagan and other warships pulled back when they detected radiation 160km off the coast of Japan. The French have pulled out their reporters. The Germans, no slouches in the engineering and technical fields, have shutdown 7 of their 17 reactors. Yup, nothing to worry about here.

The prevailing winds tend to blow west to east, meaning radioactive particles could be blown to the western coasts of the US and Canada. Citizens were already making a run on iodide tablets, a known prophylaxis for radiation exposure. California residents were the most alarmed but their state emergency management agency assured citizens they were did not need to purchase the iodide. Unfortunately for the director, the US Surgeon General was in California and contradicted the state director by telling residents they SHOULD buy iodide tablets.

In the midst of all of this excitement, gas prices have risen on aver .4o cents since last month. In Ohio, the governor just unveiled his budget plan which means a reduction in state subsidies for public transportation. Those cuts translates into reduced routes for mass transit in the larger cities (the rural areas will still be some state subsidy).

It is unrealistic to expect any president to be able to have answers for all of the above. I suspect carving out a solution to any single issue requires political maneuvering and bi-partisan support that just isn't possible with today's Congress and Senate. Perhaps that's why the President is out playing golf.

Ides of March

On his way to the Theatre of Pompey (where he would be assassinated), Caesar saw a seer who had foretold that harm would come to him not later than the Ides of March. Caesar joked, "Well, the Ides of March have come", to which the seer replied "Ay, they have come, but they are not gone."

In keeping with the Ides of March, these are just some of the headlines for today:

- The king of Bahrain has declared a three-month state of emergency, state TV reports, following weeks of pro-democracy protests in the kingdom.

- Egypt's Interior Minister Mansour al-Issawi has dissolved its internal security agency, which had been blamed for decades of human rights abuses.

- The situation at the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant in northeastern Japan ''has worsened considerably,'' the Institute for Science and International Security said in a statement released Tuesday.

- Libya's revolutionary leadership is pressing western powers to assassinate Muammar Gaddafi and launch military strikes against his forces to protect rebel-held cities from the threat of bloody assault.

- Muammar Gaddafi's forces pushed relentlessly eastwards toward Libyan rebels' stronghold of Benghazi on Tuesday, while world powers wrangled over a draft resolution to impose a no-fly zone.

To quote Private Hudson from Aliens, "We're in some pretty serious shit pal!"

U.S. sends carrier to Yellow Sea for exercises

Let's be frank here, unlike our Persian friends the Koreans really do mean business. Both the North and the South have spent nearly 60 years getting ready to finish what they started back in 1950. South Korea has economic prosperity plus around 29,000 US military personnel on their side. The North Koreans have a massive conventional military force, plus nuclear weapons and China on theirs. North Korea likes to shoot missiles at Japan in retaliation for past atrocities but also to antagonize them into a possibly coflict. The Japanese in turn would like to prove they have not completely lost their samurai spirit. If hostilities erupt, count on a least one missile heading for Japan. This could lead to a potential showdown between China, the US and Japan. No wonder the President has send a carrier battle group to the region. But much as the character Newt said in the movie Aliens, "It won't make a difference".

Link Here

Japanese cigarette anti-smoking tax

Being half Asian, I have an appreciation for role of cigarettes in Asian countries. Smoking isn't just de rigueur throughout the Pacific rim, it is almost in our DNA. I'm still not certain why I didn't develop the habit. I share that bit of introspection to show how ridiculous the Japanese have become. They now are trying to same failed experiment the Canadians tried in the 90s to curb smoking. Raise the taxes!

The problem is erroneously thought the price of cigarettes encourages smoking. As I pointed out earlier, it is a cultural thing and has nothing to do with price. Most of your friends and relatives smoke, so the likelihood you will also smoke is high. What the Japanese are doing is simply giving the Yakuza another market share in black market cigarettes. As I've posted before, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) found 100% of the cigarette packages found in a hockey stadium were black market.

Smoking can only be stopped through people learning to give up the habit. Raising taxes is only going to create a black market and put more money into the hands of the Yakuza.



Japanese panic buy cigarettes ahead of anti-smoking tax rise - Telegraph

Japan is ready for Pyongyang

Japan has slowly been increasing their military capabilities, albeit under the aegis of "self-defense", for over a decade. At the same time, the U.S. military is being asked to leave (the Marine base at Okinawa being the prime target). The Japanese were in the midst of empire-building when they were defeated at the end of World War II. The two atomic weapons used by the United States to end the war with Japan caused the Japanese to agree to all manner of concessions that would have been unacceptable to the their warrior-spirit prior to Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

For the 40 years or so, the way of the Samurai seemed to be lost until the Japanese economy allowed for a different type of war to be waged with the West. Real estate throughout the United States was bought by Japanese firms during the economic boom of the 1980s. The victory these holdings brought though were fleeting. The downturn of the Yen in the 90s caused all of these gains to be lost. Then a most curious thing occurred. The 9/11 attack caused the Bush Administration to seek a coalition of former allies of not only the usual suspects (such as the British and Australians) but also new allies such as the Spanish and Japanese. The Japanese Air Force have been supporting OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM and ENDURING FREEDOM since 2003 flying C-130s.

It appears the Japanese warrior spirit is slowly reawakening. The timing is precarious as domestic issues, from inept prime ministers to the loss of face of the formerly flawless Toyota, is creating the potential for a return to a more militaristic Japan. The situation is eerily similar to post-Weimar Germany, Argentina under Juan Peron and perhaps even Russia under Putin.

The Weimar Republic was defeated in WWI and Germany virtually emasculated of any sense of self-determination. This set the stage for the rise of the Third Reich. Argentina had a strong sense of the warrior ethos and when the Argentine economy fell, Juan Peron turned to picking a fight over the Falklands more palatable compared to answer questions from the citizens about the domestic situation. The fall of the Soviet Union appeared to first a victory for democracy. However some 20 years later, the greed and corruption of the Russian oligarchs has created and huge gap between the haves and have-nots. The have-nots remember the days of the Soviet Union where they had food, jobs and vodka. There is a serious movement to return to a Soviet style system of government. Of course, they nuclear weapons haven't gone anywhere and the Russians have just introduced their first stealth fighter.

The Japanese situation is especially poignant to me after watching the Zatoichi series of movies over the weekend. For those who haven't Zatoichi, he is a blind masseuse who travels Japan during the final years before the Meji era. Zatoichi is also an expert swordsman who took up the sword, by his own admission. so those with sight would stop looking down on him. I could help but think the series as an allegory for post-war Japan. The deployment of Patriot missiles by Japan seems like Zatoichi learning to use a katana. Japan does not want the United States or North Korea to look down on them anymore.



Why Japan is ready for anything Pyongyang might want to throw at it |
World news |
guardian.co.uk


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For First Time, Tokyo Says It Will Deploy Missile Interceptors Against Rocket or Debris From Pyongyang's Planned Launch

From the Wall Street Journal

TOKYO -- Japan's move Friday to deploy missile interceptors is the boldest challenge North Korea faces so far to its plan to launch a rocket in the next few days.

Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said he ordered the deployment of missile interceptors to Japan's northern coast to prepare to shoot down the rocket and any debris that could fall on Japanese territory. It was the first such order Japan had issued, a ministry spokesman said.

North Korea said it will launch a rocket carrying a satellite between April 4 and April 8, and warned that fragments could fall into the Sea of Japan between the two countries as well as southeast of Japan in the Pacific Ocean.

Japan and its allies suspect the rocket is a new long-range missile, and have demanded that Pyongyang cancel the plan. A launch would violate United Nations Security Council sanctions imposed in 2006 after North Korea tested a long-range missile.

A military truck with parts of land-to-air missiles from Iruma Air Base, north of Tokyo, arrives at the Defense Ministry in Tokyo Friday. Japan mobilized against possible threats from North Korea's planned rocket launch.
Any action Japan takes would be restricted to shooting at material that threatens to fall on Japanese land or sea. Nevertheless, the move is a bold one for Japan, which has a pacifist constitution that strictly restricts its military to measures of national defense.

Japan is particularly worried about North Korea because of its proximity to the rogue nation. After Pyongyang's launches in recent years, Tokyo imposed sanctions on North Korea and pushed the U.N. Security Council to enact further sanctions. At the time, Japan didn't have the missile-defense capabilities it has today.

Analysts say that by warning that it will intercept a rocket or debris, Japan is walking a fine diplomatic line between cautious preparation at home and tough talk to put North Korea on notice -- without antagonizing the country. Japanese defense officials say that while they don't expect debris or a rocket to fall on the nation, they will do everything possible beforehand to protect the nation by preparing for such an event.

Before the 2006 tests, North Korea didn't emphasize, as it has this time, that it will be launching a space rocket.

In recent years, Tokyo has expanded its military role. It has sent noncombat troops to Iraq and has a refueling mission in the Indian Ocean that supports U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

The U.S., which Japan relies on for its defense, has to proceed cautiously. U.S. diplomats are now dealing with North Korea's arrest of two U.S. journalists on the North Korea-China border on March 17.

The U.S. has been leaning against trying to shoot down the North's projectile and a senior U.S. official this week said the administration has ruled it out.

The Japanese government said two destroyers carrying sea-to-air missiles would also be deployed in nearby waters, joining U.S. and South Korean warships in the area.