Syrian may be producing Sarin

Reports are that Syria may be producing Sarin gas.  Sarin is a nerve agent that is usually not mixed until it is required since it is highly corrosive, volatile and dangerous.  Sarin gas was used by Aum Shinrikyo to attack the Tokyo subway in 1995.  Turkey had earlier requested the Patriot missile system in anticipation that Syria would start using chemical weapons against the rebels.

Chemical weapons are imprecise.  Winds and other meteorological factors can reduce or even neutralize the weapon before it effects people.  Chemical weapons tend not to be pervasive and it is hard to concentrate enough to be effective on a wide area to produce mass casualties.  Sarin is extremely deadly, a mere drop will kill a human.

Chemical weapons are then much more about the psychological impact then about gaining any military advantage.  You risk poisoning your troops just as much as your enemies.  The Assad government is obviously feeling the rebels may be getting the upper hand and wants to inflict a psychological blow to the moral of the rebels.  Assad may also be giving a middle finger to the Western world that he would do something so reprehensible.

The United States is not helping matters by alternating focus between Iran and Syria.  At the same time, major changes are occurring at CIA, State and DoD.  It may be seen as an opportunity to take advantage of the US going through a period of transition.

The continued focus on Iran's nuclear program will be seen by some as forcing Syria to escalate into chemical weapons.  We may also see Syria cells activated in the US threatening to use chemical weapons or cyber attacks.  Iran has remained somewhat quiet in the last year but may also have cells that will be activated in the US.  We are going into the holiday season and with multiple college bowl games and the Super Bowl coming up, there are soft targets that could be threatened by a terrorist attack.

Iran working on nuclear bomb

According to the AP, an anonymous source sent in a diagram demonstrating that Iranian scientists are working on a nuclear bomb. For some reason, this is a boogeyman to the US and Israel.

From the US perspective, a single nuclear bomb in the hands of Iran is cause for contemplating war yet it is extremely unlikely that Iran has the capability of developing a ballistic nuclear weapon capable of striking the US. During the Cold War, both the US and Soviet Union built thousands of nuclear weapons for fear that not all would work.

From the Israeli perspective, Iron Dome has shown great efficacy in defeating Syrian ballistic missiles so it should prove minimally to be a deterrent and maximally a countermeasure to an attack.

Given both of these conditions, the build-up of a nuclear powered Iran seems excessive. North Kore has had a nuclear capability for a longer period of time has yet has yet to seriously takes steps towards attacking the United States. Pakistan and India, two diametrically opposed nations, both have nuclear weapons yet have not launched them at each other.

The other problem with the Iranian nuclear bomb scare is that it totally misses the real threat of a cyber attack. Stuxnet effectively attack Iran's power grid and nuclear facilities. The US faces a far greater threat should our banking systems of power grids be attacked, it would be far more devastating than even multiple nuclear weapons.

AP story here

Iron Dome

By now, you must have heard about the Iron Dome that defended Israel against Syrian missiles.  Most reports say Iron Dome was 84% successful taking out over 400 incoming missiles while losing any six Israeli lives.

Perhaps but as these reports are open sourced, the numbers are probably inflated with some experts suggesting more around 40-50% success rate.  We have no way of truly knowing but one thing is for sure, Iron Dome did not produce 100% kills.  Meaning, Syrian technicians got some things right.  Israel needs to be be concerned that Syria does not figure out what they got wrong before the next upgrade is made to Iron Dome.

Whenever one side scores a technological advantage, that sends the other side into overtime figuring out how to beat it.  Israel will not sit idle but neither will Syria in trying to defeat Iron Dome.

The other problem is one of numbers.  Syria fired over 400 missiles at Israel.  Syria needs to only fire more missiles than Iron Dome can fire.  That leads to the only other option for Israel, to attack and destroy the Syrian Air Force on the ground before they can be launched.

Turkey asked for and received the Patriot system to protect its borders from Syria.  Basically, a campaign of slow escalation is being waged against Syria.  The next concern is how much longer will Israel put up with the threat they perceive from Iran?

China lands first jet on aircraft carrier

US assessments of China's carrier was just slightly off. It was apparently believed (or hoped?) that China was still years away from actually landing a jet aircraft on a carrier. Now according to CNN, not has China accomplished this feat but may be well on its way to producing more carriers. The scandal surrounding Patreus and a possible ascension of Susan Rice to Secretary of State does little to position the US to assess the true threat of China's increasingly modern military.

CNN.com

Oil and Azerbaijan

Marie Antoinette, when told the peasants were out of bread due to a lack of wheat, famously quipped "Let them eat cake!".  The quote is one of the best known examples of a super wealthy class becoming so completely removed from the rest of the population they are unable to understand it.

We like to pretend that we have the situation here in the Untied States and to a certain extent that is true.  Super wealthy athletes and entertainers experience idolization and indulgence that rivals royalty.  Stock brokers and CEOs play fast and furious with stock options, rarely ever having to face the employees laid off due to a devalued stock.  As Americans, we firmly believe some or all of these explanations for why there is such discord in the United States.  We know that the United States is still the number one economic power and thus our experience is unique.

What is often forgotten is that elsewhere, wealth is even more concentrated into the hands of an elite few families.  Some resident in countries that we've heard of; Saudi Arabia (the Saud family), the Netherlands (Queen Beatrix, she of the Royal Dutch Shell corporation), and Azerbaijan.  What?  Take a look at this picture from the Daily Mail;

These are the wealthiest of Azerbaijani women who are bathing in crude oil.  Azerbaijan produces over 1 million barrels of crude oil a day (based on 2011 figures).  This is not a new phenomena, oil drilling first started in Azerbaijan in 1871 and has been going non-stop ever since.  By 1898, production exceeded that of the United States.  Before the outbreak of World War I, three companies controlled 86 percent of the oil in Azebaijan (Russian General Oil Company, Partnership of Nobel Brothers, and Royal Dutch Shell).

The oil industry is also why relations have never been good between Azerbaijan and Armenia.  Armenians ran almost 1/3 of the oil industry in Azerbaijan by 1900.

In 1920, only 1800 qualified specialists worked in the Russian oil industry of which 1232 worked in Azerbaijan. The industry urgently needed technology, education and specialists. The scientific exchange started with the US, where visitors from Baku were seconded to oil-fields in Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, California, Texas, learned new methods of well deepening and exploitation. The Azerbaijan State Oil Academy was established in 1920 to train oil specialists.

Just is this brief history, we can see all of the major oil powers (US, Royal Dutch Shell and Russia) having a presence in Azerbaijan.  Looking at the map below, you may see some other interesting thing.

Geography can often tell us more than words.  The Bake oil fields in Azerbaijan sit right on the Caspian Sea which is controlled by Russia (it is also land locked which we will get to in a minute).  Azerbaijan is bordered by Georgia, Armenia and Iran.  Armenia in-turn borders Turkey (a NATO member).  This should now make the situation in Iran and Syrian even more concerning as conflicts in either region could spill into Azerbaijan and its oil fields.

As I noted, the Caspian Sea is land-locked making exporting its valuable oil difficult beyond the region, especially the lucrative European markets. This problem was solved by the agreement for the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline among Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey in 1998. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline was officially opened on July 13, 2006 and now transports crude oil 1,760 km (1,090 mi) from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oil field in the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea.

The map above shows one of the main reasons for US and Europe to be concerned about conflicts in the region.  Syria taking pot-shots at Turkey could interrupt oil flow to Europe.  It also explains why France was so keen on being involved in the Libyan conflict, a hedge against any interruptions to the BTC pipeline.

We also see a reason for Russia's support of Iran.  A war with Iran could place US forces within striking distance of Baku.  Europe would feel better with the oil fields being under Washington rather the Moscow's influence. In Iran, the mullahs despise all they see in Azerbaijan, including its open business and diplomatic ties to Israel and the West. Tehran withdrew its ambassador in protest at the staging of Eurovision so nearby.  British royalty and high level government officials travel here frequently.  Read more about that here Daily Mail--"Filthy rich: Britain's favourite dictatorship"

Keep your eyes on the pipeline.

Thousands of Portuguese soldiers protest budget cuts

Here is an effect of the failing Euro that you don't hear much about; the cuts to military spending. The Portuguese Army has around 44,000 personnel, the equivalent to 4 US Army brigades. The Portuguese military is much more a homeland defense than a global military. Yet, even with this relative small role cuts to spending are having a severe impact on the service members salaries. One senior naval officer quoted in the article has had an average of 500-2,000 Euros cut from his salary each year since 2005.

The failing Euro and subsequent cuts to the European militaries mean they are less able to execute their missions. The morale of the Portuguese military is shot. The environment is ripe for insurrection, revolution or even a regional conflict.

The US should take heed before mandatory cuts to military spending start taking effect next year. The world is far less stable then we would like to think.

France24

CIA director submits his resignation to President Obama

This could not have come at a worst time. The CIA is still struggling with its over-emphasis on technology versus HUMINT (spies) to collect actionable intelligence. The State Department will be getting a new secretary and the change in things could signal Iran to pick a fight with Isreal (or vice versa).

FOX19.com