Bizarro World

 In the old Superman comics, there was Bizarro World wear everything was opposite of what we have here on Earth.  Somehow a 50 year old comic story seems to have come to life.

After months of playing down the seriousness of Covid-19 and openly mocking the wear of protective masks, the President have finally become infected with the virus.  Not to relinquish his anti-science stance he deliberately subjected his Secret Service detail to the virus so he could enjoy a photo op in his limousine.

The roll of GOP officials and glad-handers coming down with the virus in the last several days has been mounting.  Today the Press Secretary has announced she is infected with the virus as well.

The United States usually leads the way in science and technology and was expected early on to manage the Covid-19 outbreak with the same technical savvy as that which landed the first men on the moon.  Unfortunately, the current President of the United States had no plan to address the virus and decided the best course was to openly mock experts and deny the lethality of the virus.  As a result, the United States now leads the way in deaths associated with the virus (200,000+ at the time of this post).

Trump's strategy has been to ignore countermeasures to prevent the disease from spreading in favor of rapidly opening the economy in hopes of re-election.  Despite this bizarre approach, the virus has not only infected him and much of his staff but the economy is still struggling.  Disney just announced the layoff of 28,000 employees.  United Airlines and other US legacy airlines are on the verge of collapse.  Regal Cinemas just announced a worldwide closure until further notice due to the lack of movies to show.

But all in the Trump campaign is about the virus and economy.  During his first (and perhaps only) debate, when challenged to denounce all white supremacy his instead called upon the Proud Boys to "stand back and standby".  This bizarre answer directly lead to a Proud Boys march this past weekend in New Albany, Ohio where one of the Proud Boys fired his .45ACP into the car of a protestor.

I'm not really trying to enlighten anyone with this post.  Either you are already convinced of Trump's incompetence or you will blindly defend his actions.  There is no middle ground anymore. My purpose with this post is to record my own thoughts and observations in the hopes that at some future point I may look back with relief.  But that isn't likely to happen soon.

Will Trump pull the military into election unrest?

 The fact the Pentagon is unwilling to even plan for such a contingency is more about not getting fired than actually not believing such an event could happen.  Moreover, what Portland has taught us is that Trump can and will bypass the military by hiring private contractors (dressed in military camouflage) hired through the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).  

https://dnyuz.com/2020/09/25/at-pentagon-fears-grow-that-trump-will-pull-military-into-election-unrest/

How do you replace two carriers at the same time? And other questions from the pandemic

Beginning my military career in 1985 meant starting amidst the Reagan build-up of the military.  We had more planes, ships, bases, and personnel then ever to thwart the Soviet Union.  It also meant that there was an inherant swagger amongst the military.  Reagan's build-up had help overcome the stigma of military service that was rampant just 10 years earlier during and immediately after the Vietnam war.

Perhaps it is the lingering of effects of those heady days that cause me to react with such uttering incomprehension at the following; both of the US Navy carriers on station in the Pacific have been forced to port due to the coronavirus. Both  CVN-71 USS Theodore Roosevelt  and CVN-76 USS Ronald Reagan crews have succumbed to the coronavirus.  Two of our nuclear powered carriers, the ultimate expression of US military power projection, guarded by the most sophisticated destroyers, frigates and attack submarines the world has ever known rendered useless by a virus.

The wildest war times scenarios of an attack by the Soviets always involved large scale attacks or the use of nuclear weapons.  Attacks post the Soviet Union saw more asymmetrical attacks via terrorists or cyber warfare.  In none of these cases was it ever imagined that the entire Pacific fleet would be sent to their home ports to wait out a virus.

For those keeping score, the leaves CVN-72 USS Abraham Lincoln the only carrier still afloat (albeit in the Middle East), at least for now.  The rest of the US carries are in various stages of maintenance back home.  This is unimaginable for unlike being attacked or damage, with the pandemic taking out our ships there is no get well date.  We can just dispatch another carrier in the blink of an eye and even if we could, there is no saying that their crews would not succumb to the pandemic as well.

These are truly ugly times.  My last few posts have been more about the pandemic from the perspective of how it effects everyday life.  Now looking at how our military capabilities are also being effected is very unsettling.  The US Air Force and US Army are experiencing outbreaks at their bases as well.  So far the effects on their mission capabilities are unknown.  In the case of both of these branches, they will also have to compete with states governors who are deploying Army and Air National Guard resources in response to the pandemic.

The US Air Force spent a lot of time and money on me to learn how to think through all types of scenarios.  I must admit, this one has me stumped.  There is no end date, as more people succumb more capabilities will be reduced or lost and there is no reserve to call upon for they are subjected to the same limiting factors.  Worse is how the pandemic is effecting our combat support, logistics and medical.  Military and civilian healthcare workers are being pushed to the brink.  Truck drivers, cargo pilots, material handlers, port workers, and even grocers are all facing a reduction in capability as more and more of their workers succumb.

The best option I see is trying to keep those personnel not already sick as healthy as possible for as long as possible in hopes that those that are sick now recover soon.  Shelter in place, exercise and eat right.

The New Normal version 2020

The "New Normal" was a term born of the days right after 9/11 to describe how drastically things had changed and that we would not be going back to the old normal.  The days immediately following the attacks saw aircraft grounded across the country.  Entrance to federal facilities were restricted to absolutely the most essential personnel (another term you hear today from that time).  Everyone was on edge waiting for the next attack.

Some twenty years later and we are seeing the same things again.  Businesses closed.  Those that are open are deemed "essential" and only "essential personnel" are working.  Unlike 9/11, medical personnel are being pushed to the limits and by most models, we are still weeks away from the peak.  People are quarantined in their homes to varying degrees across the globe.  Here in Ohio, we are allowed out for walks, grocery shopping and doctors appointments.  In DC, there is now a $500 fine for being caught outside your home.

All of this and more is leading to a new normal, one unlike what we saw with 9/11.  First is the huge economic impact from the cancellation of professional sports seasons to the shuttering of the Big Three automakers.  Many restaurants have closed due to a lack of staffing.  Those that are still running have to rely strictly on carry-out/delivery service to stay afloat.  This has prompted Taco Bell to consider even after the pandemic to switch to an all-drive thru/delivery format.

Major League Baseball (MLB) is still trying to figure out how to have its 2020 season.  The latest idea is to have a compressed season with a late start in June...and no crowds!  As foreign as that idea is, to have professional baseball played in empty stadiums, what is even stranger is everyone's acceptance of the inevitability of this scenario.

Of course the politicians are all trying to outdo each other in a race to stem the pandemic without alienating their core constituents.  This lead to a very interesting and ugly confrontation over the weekend.  President Trump, a native New Yorker, decided the situation in his home state had become out of control.  Trump's go-to policy of insults via Twitter against New York Governor Cuomo had failed.  Trump facing an alarming crisis with a failing economy and going into re-election (something that seems so insignificant now) had to up his game.  Trump decided to that it was best to isolate the entire state of New York.

Governor Cuomo is also a lifelong New Yorker and did not back down and upped his own game by announcing quite publicly that any such move to isolate the state of New York by the Trump Administration would be nothing short of a declaration of war!  President Trump, unusual for his normal bluster, back-tracked and instead issue a travel advisory.

What the media and general public missed is a confrontation between an overzealous federal government and state government.  The exact situation the framers of the Constitution foresaw in creating the 2nd Amendment...no not the part about bearing arms, the part about a well regulated militia.  Trump and his administration learned why each state has a National Guard and unfortunately for Trump, New York has one of the largest National Guards in the country!

The Trump Administration isn't the only government that has tested the limits of authority under the new normal.  Serbia seems to be following suite.  Israel has also taken extreme measures to restrict the flow of its citizens.  Most concerning, is more and more countries (including the US) are trying to get a handle on what they deem as "fake news" by monitoring, filtering or outright shutting down social media.  In these times, social media has become the de facto way of assembling to share political discourse.  We should all be worried about governments capriciously shutting down communications under the guise of the new normal and protecting the citizens.

There is much more to cover but I want to leave you with one final thought.  We have been told repeatedly to wash our hands as the best means of preventing the spread of the virus.  Yet we still have to buy food which we pay for often times in cash.  Even elementary school students now that cash is one of the dirtiest things we handle during the day and you always wash your hands after handling cash.  Don't be surprised if the US digital dollar doesn't make another appearance down the road.  If not to help prevent the spread of pandemic disease, then at least to help curtail the illegal businesses that are sure to develop during this global lockdown.

Potential Martial Law?

Noise and panic caused by the response to the pandemic makes it hard to sort out the truth from the hype.  Regardless, the appearance of this article supports a concern I have had now for several days.  As we continue to see more and more austere restrictions being placed on the American public (and as Mark Osterholm has stated, "Quarantine without criteria"), you have to wonder how much longer before we inevitably land at martial law.

Newsweek just published an article entitled "The Military's Top Secret Plan If Coronavirus Cripples the Government". It should not surprise anyone familiar with the government and the military that such contingency plans exist.  What is concerning is that someone felt it necessary to share the existence of these plans with a journalist.  Or perhaps it is just a psyop move to test the public's reaction to martial law?

In either case, now is not the time to dismiss such articles as the work of "liberals" or "conspiracy nuts" as the plans for continuity of operations are very real (I know, we were working on these during the preparations for the avian flu 15 years ago).  Unlike other scenarios, the threat from coronavirus means that essential all of the government leaders are vulnerable and come succumb to infection at the same time and/or die.  This would create an almost unimaginable situation where the military assumes command of the US government from civilian leaders.  The US has always had civilian control of the military, reversing could have long-term consequences for our country.

The real question that needs to be asked before it becomes too late is if we were to go under martial law, what conditions need to exist before we see marital law being lifted?  If civilian leadership is replaced by the military, how long will that exist? How would the US civilian government be reconstructed?  Here in Ohio we just had to postpone the primary elections due to concerns about the pandemic.  What if those conditions continue to exist and the aren't allowed out to vote a new government in for an extended period of time?

March 18, 2020, still wash your hands!

Here in Ohio we are more or less shutdown (barring what the governor says at his 2:00 conference).  Nationally we've seen the NBA cancel, the NCAA tournaments cancelled. NHL cancel, the MLS cancel, MLB postpone opening day, and the E3 conference cancel.  Most schools have closed switching to on-line delivery of lessons.  Bars and restaurants have closed, going to carryout or delivery options only.

Despite this, I'm still seeing some social media posts that refuse to believe the severity of this crisis.  As of this post, Ohio has 67 confirmed cases in 16 counties (like here).  The naysayers point to these numbers as proof that the measures taken in Ohio are disproportianate to the cases.  What they seem to be missing or unwilling to accept is that those low numbers of infection are due to the extreme measures taken by the governor.  (And no, postponing the March 17th primary to June 2nd doesn't deny your constitutional rights.  If you are bothered by this, maybe next time get your dead ass into the Board of Elections and vote early!)

I saw another post pointing out that the Chinese coronavirus hospitals are closing (link here). So see coronavirus is already over they conclude.  There are several things wrong with this conclusion.  First and foremost, we know China withheld critical information at the beginning of the outbreak.  What makes these social media experts feel that China is now telling the truth?  Perhaps China is closing the hospitals simply for the optics to prevent their economy from collapsing.  The other problem with FB expert posts concluding the worst is over is perhaps the Wuhan situation has already burned through everyone it can kill, the rest are now carriers.  Finally, just because Wuhan is apparently recovering that doesn't mean the rest of China is.

Let's just say the news about Wuhan is accurate and truthful, that doesn't mean we should drop our guard.  Yes people are losing wages.  Yes I know you're already tired of spending this much time home with your spouse and kids without any distractions (the release of Black Widow and several other blockbusters have been pushed back MONTHS!).  Yes I know that suddenly toilet paper and hand sanitizer have become black market gold.  Take this time to relax and realize by staying home you and your family are helping to prevent coronavirus from spreading.

Here in Dubtown, a positive side of the shelter in place protocols has been a significant decrease in the homeless population roaming our streets aimlessly.  Also people do seem to be much more focused on helping each other and local businesses so there are some good points to remember as well.

Take this time to read.  Watch or take some on-line courses.  Get outside and breath some fresh air.  Stop worrying about what China or other countries are doing and focus on this one.  And while you're at it, don't forget to wash your hands!

Coronavirus 2020

You step away from the keyboard for a while and then when you come back, all hell has broken loose.  Coronavirus has hit the collective minds of the smart phone carrying generation with a fury that it will likely not be able to match in reality.

For reasons that elude me, coronavirus has terrorized the  attention of the American public more than the seasonal flu.  According to the CDC and US Health Dept, on average 10,000 or more die every year from the seasonal flu.  That's more than all of the coronavirus deaths combined so far (yes, I know China very forthcoming with data but then why the panic?) yet coronavirus has captured that minds of the public like nothing since the ebola break out a few years ago.

From a sociological point of view, this seems to be rooted in the distrust of all things Chinese.  Chinese produced pet foods a few years ago earned a bad reputation for being manufactured with ingredients that were harmful to pets.  Chinese manufactured products don't have the best reputation for quality control.  China's reputation for human rights abuses (think Tiananmen Massacre in 1989 or the continual riots in Hong Kong) creates a lack of trust in how the Chinese government will deal with a pandemic illness.  Therefore when details of coronavirus first started making the news, most assumed that the Chinese would cover up the information.

The United States and the American public has become extremely polarized under Trump.  You are either for or against, right or left, Republican or Democrat.  No middle road tolerated anymore thank you very much.  Just look at the Democratic candidates going into Super Tuesday.  All moderate candidates have had to sit down and allow Joe Biden to try to save the Democrats from the socialist Bernie Sanders.  The same polarization effects how you perceive coronavirus.  You are either terrified that it will be a global pandemic wiping out mankind or it is nothing more than an over-hyped cold (the same way people view climate change).

How the coronavirus will spread and the severity of its spread remains to be seen, however its economic impacts are already being felt.  Of all places, we can see this hitting Hollywood.  The latest James Bond movie Chinese opening is being delayed indefinitely. No one is going to the movies in China for fear of catching coronavirus.  This means the biggest overseas market for movies is effectively shutdown.  To give you an idea, Avengers Endgame could never have achieved is record breaking $2 billion without China.  The Hollywood types are scared their blockbuster movies won't be able to make back nearly as much money without the Chinese market.

Think about what a shutdown China means to our economy.  We use Chinese manufactured technology everyday, most of our clothing is manufactured in China, as well as auto components, and food.  Prices are going to go up for consumer goods regardless of how severe coronavirus really is.

The Danger of Logical Fallacies

First, it was the Jesuits at St. Xavier who challenged me to ask "why is what your saying correct?".  Debate team further honed my ability to look at opposing arguments to better understand how to craft my response to their critiques of my position.  At the University of Cincinnati, I met people not only from different walks of life but also from other countries which taught me how to broaden my world view.  Courses in philosophy and history taught me to realize that the future rarely looks like the past.

The US Air Force spent 22 years sending me to various schools (intelligence applications, air-ground operations school, Squadron Officer School, Air Command and Staff College, Air War College) and various training seminars to learn about our past so that we would not make the same mistakes in the future.  Yeah, there are a lot of people responsible for teaching me to think and challenge what you think you know and to recognize when there is a logical fallacy.

Therefore, it comes as a bit of a disappointment that a US Army major has an article published that claims the Millennial Generation (or simply Millennials) are our Achilles Heel.  Yes, Millennials are digital adepts with different expectations than previous generations yet the Cavanaugh makes a surprising logical fallacy.  Namely, he condemns a newer generation mainly because it does not resemble the previous generations of recruits entering the military.

What is so surprising about his rather myopic view is he is writing about what it will take to win future wars, not past wars.  Wars up to and including the Vietnam War were manpower intensive despite increasing technological improvements.  Therefore having a large number of fit, disciplined and primarily male troops was a must.  However, conflicts since Desert Storm increasingly used technology not just to enhance troop performance but actually replace it.

In the First World War, so many troops died because generals were still trying to use Napoleonic tactics (long horizontal lines of soldiers charging one another) despite the innovation of the machine gun.  Even after encountering heavy losses due to machine gun emplacements, generals continued to hold fast to the old instead of coming up with new tactics.

Cavanaugh is guilty of similarly holding a newer generation to the same standard as his generation.  After all, his generation was prepared to deal with modern warfare by being physically fit, educated, disciplined and not dependent on technology so why shouldn't a younger generation?

However, are we preparing to fight the last war or the next war?  North Korea, Iran, China and Russia are our most likely opponents in any future conflict.  Out of those, only China can match our manufacturing capability but has thus far not been able to outmatch our military technology.  But a much better question is what do we think they even want to?

The digital world populated by the Millennials that Cavanaugh holds in such contempt is where the next battlefield will occur.  He correctly assesses that something like a cyber attack or massive electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) will cripple us and thus he feels will leave the technologically dependent millennials lost in the mayhem.

Of course if we stop using a strawman argument and actually think about the scenario, who do we think is developing those cyber weapons to attack us?  Most likely the very Millennials that Cavanaugh eschews!

Cavanaugh is not the only critic of Millennials by far and I'm not even really defending them.  My real point in this post is to show how logical fallacies can lead to seemingly expert opinions when in fact they are just regurgitating past tropes with nothing new to show for them.

Our political discourse has been reduced to nothing more than ad hominem arguments.  Rather than attacking a position, we hurl "Libtard" or "Trump Supporter" at each other.  We now view our news, celebrities, and issues strictly in an "us or them" mentality without regard to any merits of the other side.  Iran is an enemy because they are Muslim.  North Korea is an enemy because they have nuclear weapons.  China is an enemy because they are building bases outside their borders (know anyone else who does that?).  Russia is an enemy because it interfered with our elections (know anyone else who does that?). 

So the next time you find yourself about to enter into a Facebook or Twitter war, try to understand what the points are of the person you're pissed off at.  You just might find you have more in common than you realize and may, just may, be able to convince them to at least consider your point of view as well.

Chaos and nonsense

Upon his return from Helsinki, Mr. Trump flip-flopped (remember when that pejorative was used freely by conservative pundits to deride Mr. Obama and Hillary Clinton?  I wonder what happened....) his press conference comments  to the point I'm not certain he knows what he meant.  So rather than learn a lesson, he immediately went back into attack  mode on the NFL.

Meanwhile, nothing has changed in regards to North Korea which still possesses nuclear weapons.  NATO which still is spending the same amount of their GDP as before.  The EU has kissed American trade good-bye and won't be coming back.  We are still dropping tons of bombs on Syria with no end in sight.  But just in case you're not tired of winning,  Mr. Trump and his lackey John Bolton have decided to dust off the old chestnut of a "the danger of a nuclear armed Iran".

Since the inception of the Bush "Axis of Evil" and continuing through the Clinton era at the State Department, the scare tactic has been to pronounce Iran as a Middle Eastern (read Muslim) nation hellbent on acquiring nuclear weapons specifically to attack the US and Israel.  John Bolton continues this nonsense with his hawkish assessments of Iran.  Why do I say nonsense?  If we stop threatening Iran, they just might go about their business and forget that whole Shah of Iran stuff.

Oh wait, you mean when they took over our embassy in Tehran for 444 days?  Well yeah but in order to understand something that happened nearly 40 years ago, we have to go even further back in time.  All the way in fact to 1908 ad the founding of a company called the Anglo-Persian Oil Company.  A British millionaire assumed exclusive rights to prospect for oil for 60 years in Iran (Persia).  In exchange, the Shah received the equivalent of $2 million. 

The need for the Royal Navy to modernize from coal powered steamships and use oil instead meant that people such as Winston Churchill wanted to control their own oil supply and sever the British reliance on Royal Dutch Shell (this sounds awfully familiar for some reason?).  The Iranians wanted to have control of their own profits which of course were at odds with British national security interests. 

Lots of broken promises on both sides leads us to around 1941 when both the British and Soviets (yes Virginia, the Soviets were our Allies in WWII) invading and occupying Iran in order to secure oilfields and open a secure route to the USSR.  This resulted in Reza Shah being forced to abdicate in favor of his more western friendly son.  Naturally all of these shenanigans lead to a huge increase in Iranian nationalism.  Mohammed Mossadegh was elected Prime Minister and was a staunch champion of the Iranian nationalist movement. 

In a strange twist, Mossadegh was invited to the US in 1951 a brokered a deal that was very favorable for both the US and Iran.  However, the deal was dependent on the UK which believed Mossadegh was a lame duck.  Mossadegh was even more popular with the Iranian citizens than ever before, however by the British boycotting Iranian oil it meant that Iranians were poorer than ever. 

This was all portrayed by the US and UK as being very dangerous to their respective national security thus was hatched a plan lead by the CIA to oust the much more popular and democratically elected Prime Minister Mossadegh and replace him with Shah Pavlavi (Reza Shah's son).

By 1954, with the pro-Western Shah Pavlavi in place, the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company became British Petroleum or what most of us know today as BP.  In order to appease those that put him power, Shah Pavlavi created the SAVAK or Iranian secret police which committed all manner of torture, kidnappings and assassinations in their attempt to put out the Iranian nationalist movement.

Of course this only further incited the Iranian people who wanted the Shah out and led to the takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran.  The Shah was exiled in disgrace and Ayatollah Khomeini taking over as leader. 

That much abridged history lesson of US involvement in Iran is why I stated earlier, Mr. Trump and John Bolton need to just ignore Iran.  The history of the US in this region makes our motives appear disingenuous at best and a chance to rehash the past at worst.  Oh and we really don't need Iran's oil for our national security.  If you Google top 10 oil-producing countries the number 1 spot is held by the US at 15,599,000 barrel per day!  Iran in comparison produces only around 4,6669,000 bpd which is even less than those unruly Canadians at 4,984,000 bpd.

Twilight Zone

Despite his bluster after his summit with Russian President Putin, even Mr. Trump realized the blowback from  his press conference was going to be more than a few Tweets were going to be able to quiet.  So spinmaster John Bolton was called upon during the flight back on Air Force One to come up with a solution.  The result was the even more incriminating "I misspoke" excuse.  Think about that, Mr. Trump the self-titled "stable genius" and his aides collaborated on how to control the damage (meaning he didn't in reality misspeak) and that was the best they could do?

Mr. Bolton, like his boss, avoided going to Vietnam except his course of action was to join the Army National Guard (which during Vietnam, unlike today, did not deploy its troops to the war so Bolton was safe without really dodging the draft).  Fine, I'm not going to judge him for not wanting to get shot then but he has since his time working for George W. Bush been the biggest supporting for sending others to get shot.  Bolton is the one to have claimed Iraq had obtained yellow cake uranium which is used in nuclear weapons.  However, according to former Congressman Henry Waxman the British intelligence report used was spun by Bolton as it was determined in 2008 that the yellow cake uranium was not able to be used in nuclear weapons or even for a dirty-bomb. 

Somehow though, this is still not enough to concern the Trump faithful that Mr. Trump is the last person who should be meeting with a Russian President without any press or outside attendees.  The Trump faithful counter that the FBI, NSA, CIA and DIA (along with all of the separate military branches) have become politicized by the anti-Trump left.  Thus any and all coming from these agencies showing that Russia did indeed interfere with the 2016 elections must be summarily dismissed.

Here are three different articles, from three different sources all pointing to Russian Trolls;

1.  2018 NY Times "Inside Russia Troll Factory"

2.  NPR "How a Russian Troll Factory Waged an Aggressive Campaign to Disrupt the US election"

3 2015 The Guardian "Inside the Russian Troll House Accused of Meddling"

There are more however Trump and his faithful will dismiss this as "fake news".  The Soviet Union and Russia excelled at propaganda and the 21st Century addiction to social media makes it even easier to alter people's opinions.  And it works both ways.  The Trump faithful feel their views are more and more under attack and therefore must dismiss any an all information that criticizes their view.  The anti-Trump crowd feels like they are living in a Twilight Zone episode as more and more information comes out confirming Russian influence, including 16 criminal indictments against Russian nationals, yet the Trump faithful would rather doubt their own government than believe Russia (who portrays Trump as great leader) of any guilt.

The next article I read this morning will outrage the Trump faithful even more since it first is an article from BBC (those insufferable foreigners who dis Trump) and second it suggests that the darling of the right, better known as the NRA, may have been infiltrated by a Russian spy. Of course if you stop and think about it, what better organization than the NRA to infiltrate if you want to influence American conservatives?

As I was getting ready to conclude, I just saw another article where yet another high ranking Trump official is getting ready to resign.  This time its the Director of National Intelligence Coates who insiders are afraid will resign and then all hell (as if it hasn't already) will break lose.  With some many Trump officials resigning or being under indictment, you would think his poll numbers dip more than they have but so far they have not.  You do have to wonder who will replace John Kelly and Sarah Saunders when they step down at the end of the year.

If you are a Trump supporter, nothing I've shared is likely to change your mind.  If you aren't, then the question is what happens next?  More than likely, Congress won't act until after the mid-term elections (which could be a bloodbath for the Republicans or not).  No incumbent wants to risk losing their sit by going against Trump now.  After November, it may be a completely different story.

Trump is wrong.

First Mr. Trump goes to the G-7 conference and insults of the US allies to illustrate "the unfairness" of the terms of the trade deals.  In his now familiar smug way, he leaves early declaring "victory".  The real results was of course more tariffs against US goods.

He next sojourns to meet and insult NATO, calling Germany a puppet of Russia and demanding that NATO up their spending to at least 2% to as much as 4% of their respective GDP.  He again departs early and smugly Tweets that he has show them (NATO) and has addressed the "unfair" NATO agreement that has the US paying more that other allies.  He somehow or other neglected mentioning that NATO had already agreed to increasing their spending under President Obama. 

Mr. Trump then makes his first visit to long time US ally the United Kingdom.  After insulting the British Prime Minister in an exclusive interview with the tabloid Sun, he then attempts to deny that he ever insulted Theresa May nor called her strategy for Brexit "failed".  He also insulted the mayor of London accusing him of failed policies leading to more crime (and what has the President down about US crime rates?).  After facing tens of thousands of British protestors, Mr. Trump leaves for his private golf course in Scotland.

If you perceive the above events differently, so be it.  But Mr. Trump's latest foreign excursion is very disconcerting and some are even calling treasonous.  Mr. Trump agreed to meet Russian President Vladmir Putin in Helsinki.  This even AFTER the 16 indictments against Russian nationals for interfering with the 2016 elections were handed out this week!  But wait is gets worse, not were the indictments handed out but the FBI as well as US intelligence agencies (the CIA and NSA) all concluded that Russia absolutely hacked into our elections Mr. Trump still agreed to meet with Mr. Putin.  Mr. Trump allegedly asked Mr. Putin is Russia was involved and Mr. Putin of course said "no" which was good enough for our President.  He further insulted his own intelligence agencies and FBI by adding "well why would Russian do it?"

I don't care who you voted for, nothing I write will likely change your opinion one or the other.  But if this latest has not gotten you to to write your member of Congress and demand that they do something about this imbecile, then you have fallen victim to very type of propaganda the old Soviet Union used to excel in doing.

The US Air Force spent large sums of money and time training me to become an intelligence analyst.  Our number one adversary was the Soviet Union.  Even when the Soviet Union fell, I used to admonish my fellow analysts not to fall for the line, "oh they're our friends now!".  The Soviet Union at its core was about the downfall of the United States.  Every good Soviet citizen was a part of trying to make that happen.  When the Soviet Union collapsed (as a result of US policies let's not forget), there was no sudden epiphany to start loving the United States that swept the lands.  Mr. Putin especially spent most of his life as a trained KGB agent.

Given all of this, how in the hell can a sitting US President take the word of a foreign leader over his own intelligence agencies and FBI?!  Mr. Trump in his narcissistic, bombastic need to be the center of everything has weakened the US almost beyond repair in the last few weeks.  Congress and the Senate need to reign Mr. Trump in now or we may never recover.

Mr. Trump continues to "win"

Back on June 12th, Trump and Kim Jong Un had a summit.  Mr. Trump loudly declared that we could all sleep better since the threat of a nuclear North Korea was over.  Trump and his supporters were giddy from all of this "winning!".  Except it didn't take long to see there wasn't much more to the summit than a photo-op.

No means of verifying nuclear disarmament were discussed at the summit.  Perhaps details such as verification are best left to others but still it was very it was a very concerning omission.  Trump than wasted no time in announcing that those "silly war games" the US conducts with the South Koreans would cease (news of which took the South Korean government quite by surprise).  As though all of this weren't convoluted enough, Mr. Trump then upon returning to the US leaves the sanctions against North Korea (which drove their nuclear armament program into high gear) in place!

South Korea isn't the only ally left scratching their heads thanks to the President.  Prior to his trip to Singapore, Mr. Trump got into a tiff with Mr. Trudeau and now has a trade war with Canada (one of the staunchest allies of the US.  Don't believe it?  Canadian snipers have been the deadliest in Afghanistan, supporting the US war on terror).  France, England and Germany all are going about their business without their long-time ally as Mr. Trump's foreign policy moves are just too fickle to understand.

Mr. Trump has since forgotten all about the above and has redoubled his efforts on stemming the tide of MS-13 "animals" from illegally "infesting" the United States.  Mara Salvatrucha 13 or MS-13 has been operating in the US since at least the mid-1980s so they hardly represent a new threat.  The US is also responsible for the creation of MS-13 which formed in East Los Angeles in response to El Salvadorian refugees being attacked and abused by local Mexican gangs.  The US government thought the best way to deal with El Salvadorians fleeing war in their own country was to slam in the middle of the Mexican suburbs of East LA.  Nobody remembered to ask the citizens of East LA or the El Salvadorians how they felt about this.

Meanwhile, NATO has moved forward with increasing spending (something Mr. Trump feels they should have been doing all along) in response to their perception of an increased threat from Russia.  Even Sweden, a non-NATO nation, that has historically kept their military spending to a minimum is having to increase their military readiness in response to increased Russian military presence.  Yet despite this, Mr. Trump continues to make overtures to Mr. Putin.  Regardless of what your perceptions of Russian intent may be, you have to at least acknowledge that our Allies are worried and Mr. Trump seems completely tone-deaf to their concerns.

Unfortunately, people are less and less tuning into the news or reading newspapers.  American citizens of all political persuasions are simply tuning out.  If what they read doesn't agree with their point of view, it is "fake news" and is ignored.  Meaning the majority of the public are uninterested in what is going on and therefore tends to be passive politically.  Perhaps a jaded assessment on my part but the mid-terms will be a bellwether on how invested voters are in effecting change or remaining status quo.

What can we learn from the missile strikes in Syria

Mr. Trump convinces France and the UK to shoot cruise missiles at targets in Syria.  This was in response to Assad attacking his people with chemical weapons.  The response was exactly what Mr. Trump had criticized Mr. Obama for doing.  Amazing how times have changed.

But now a week after the missile strikes, the effectiveness of this attack remains unknown.  If Assad did use chemicals against Syrians, then we still don't know if he used Sarin (which required the type of facilities that were struck) or more common chemicals such as chlorine or mustard (both of which are easily available as industrial chemicals).

Reading some of the foreign news sites, it isn't even clear if France launched any of their missiles or cancelled at the last minute.  In comparison, US news sites are declaring a smashing victory of the combined attack with no losses.  However, Russian and non-US sites paint a picture of some of the cruise missiles being intercepted by Russian anti-missile systems.

The truth is likely somewhere in the middle.  The US and allies struck targets in Syria more a show of force rather than any actual degradation of Assad's ability to use chemical weapons.  Even at the best of times, some of the missiles probably failed to hit their targets allowing the claim of Russia and Syria that the attacks failed.  More troubling is the potential that Russian military technology can intercept US cruise missiles, even if it's only a small percentage of the total launched it still would be troubling for the US military.

The missile attacks also support the notion that the SecDef is the only adult influencing Trump's national security policy.  Perhaps this also signals that Mattis can keep the war-mongering Bolton in check.

Lookings at problems differently

When you step away from the keyboard, sometimes it is a matter of other things taking precedence.  Other times it is to step outside and get some fresh air.  But for me it has lately been because just too many things are happening and before I can start writing about them, something new has already taken over my attention.  So pardon some of the rambling and jump cuts in this blog, there is just so much going on.

Let's begin with North Korea.  Most of the national security experts on the Trump administration have been expressing some level of concern that war could break out with North Korea.  Until recently, I also shared that some concern but reading an article last month has me re-thinking the matter.

North Korea's nuclear weapons program has always been assumed to be developed specifically to attack the United States.  However, this would almost guarantee North Korea's extinction by US retaliatory strike by either nuclear or conventional forces.  Why then does North Korea continue on a path of sheer suicide?

The assumptions have always centered on the US, i.e. the only possible reason for North Korea to have nuclear weapons is to launch an attack first.  However, a new line of thinking throws the US focused assumptions out and refocuses on North Korea.  North Korea's military does not exist to fight the US (at least not directly).  It exists to attack South Korea with the intent of reunifying the Korean peninsula.  Looking at the North Korean nuclear program in this light shows us the the nuclear weapons are not intended as a first strike but rather a way of holding the US at bay while North Korea launches its attack to the south.

And the evidence thus far says North Korea's policy is working.  The US has NOT launched and an attack on their nuclear facilities.  This may change in the future and it still may prove wrong but for now it is a different way of looking at this problem.

Here are two different looks at the same problem facing society today (and why we may not want to jump into more wars, especially with North Korea or Iran);

Low Recruit Discipline Prompts Army to Redesign Basic Training--Army commanders are complaining that too many brand new soldiers, right out of the training pipeline are showing-up at the units sloppy, undisciplined, asking too many questions instead of following orders and feel "entitled".  After nearly 20 years of constant combat operations, the Army realizes that Basic Training got too far away from the tenets of good order and discipline.  Contrast this with what the Air Force did

Air Force Reprimands First Sergeant For Telling Cadets to Dress Properly--I don't know what the hell to make of the USAF these days.  Apparently the senior officers of the Air Force Academy, the epitome of the Air Force officer corps, are too squeamish when it comes to maintaining good order and discipline at the "Zoo" (Air Force Academy).  Rather than re-evaluate standards or speaking to the superintendent privately, they took him to task for doing his job (so much for thinking outside the box!).  But apparently AFA cadets are no more immune from the same problems as the Army. 

The US military needs to stop pretending that we are in the business of anything other than killing people and breaking things (or in more polite parlance, "management of violence").  Get back to training enlisted and officers to be responsible for themselves and their unit.  Be sharp, be on time, don't be sloppy.  And most of all, shut-up and listen....you just might learn something.

But alas this may be beyond even pipe-line training in the military.  Go outside right now and watch the people walking on the sidewalk.  What are they doing?  They either have their noses in their smart phone or are rupturing their eardrums with their music.  In either way, those people are no longer interacting with real people.  They don't get how their actions effect other people because there is no requirement to develop empathy when interacting in the digital world.

In the digital era. we can go Amazon and order whatever consumer pleases our little capitalistic heart and have is delivered the same day!  Who the hell wants to spend years then learning to become an aircraft mechanic or transport pilot?  The millennial generations and those coming after have no concept of waiting for something or the feeling of satisfaction by earning something that took years, not minutes, to earn.

Unfortunately, this is the same reason why the younger people are not interested in the politics of the world and are only persuaded by whatever hashtag is flashed on their social media accounts.  On April 20th (420, ha!), high school students are organizing a walk-out to protest the shootings in Florida.  I'm glad to see young people are actually doing some active rather than passively posting non-sense memes and hashtags on social media.  However, my real interest will be peaked when something meaningful occurs AFTER the walk-out.  Oh wait, you mean I have to wait for results?

Shithole countries

Before the government shutdown, Mr. Trump referred to Haiti and African nations as "shitholes".  Trump supporters were quick to point out images such as this;

Yes, that's Haiti. The first black nation in the Western Hemisphere (after kicking the slave-owning French out) who were ignored by the United States and Europe.  Neither the US nor Europe offer the fledgling nation a chance to develop a modern, democratic government.  Even when the US finally did reach out to Haiti in the 1960s, it was to use Francois "Popa Doc" Duvalier (who founded the Tonton Macoute) as a hedge against the threat of expanding Communism (read Soviet Union) in the region. 

In 2011, Haiti suffered an earthquake and is still trying to recover.  To those who would point out that this is just more proof of what a shithole country really is, remember that Haiti had no infrastructure to speak of before the earthquake.  Aid and recovery efforts found it difficult, if not impossible, to restore to country over the last 7 years. 

And of course there is this;

This shows Haiti on the left and the Dominican Republic on the right.  The deforestation of Haiti started back when it was still controlled by the French in the 19th Century.  The photo was taken in 2012.

My point today is not to defend Haiti as much as to point out the hypocrisy of Trump and his supporters.  Let's look at another picture.

(credit: Craig Wilson)

This is an abandoned part of Detroit from 2012.  How does this not qualify as a "shithole"?  Or how about this one;

(credit:  Huffington Post)

That's Flint, Michigan drinking water as of 2016.  The water had been looking like that for over 3 years!  And while the EPA will say the water now is at "acceptable levels" of pollutants, the residents still can't drink the water in 2018.

My point is Trump haters got mad but let him and the media get a pass on hypocritical is was to called out other countries for being "shitholes" when the most modern nation in the world can't even provide clean drinking water for all of its citizens.

If something this patently obvious is avoided by the media and public, imagine the consequences of misrepresentations of issues that actually require research to debunk!

War without end

Over the last few months, a few items have been in the news that might have missed your attention;

Item:  The USAF has a pilot shortage, so much that they've been talking about recalling retired pilots to help train new pilots.  http://www.businessinsider.com/air-force-has-a-pilot-shortage-due-to-lack-of-training-resources-2017-10

Item:  The US Navy waived the PT scores of over 48,000 sailors that would have been discharged for failing to pass their annual PT assessment. https://taskandpurpose.com/48000-sailors-failed-prt-just-got-sweet-deal-navy/

Item:  A US Army Special Forces soldier alleged in an open letter that the Special Forces Qualification Course (or "Q" Course) is passing people who are not being held to the same physical fitness standards as in the pass. https://sofrep.com/94786/careerism-cronyism-malfeasance-special-warfare-center-end-special-forces-capability/

Item:  The US Marine Corps was found by the General Accounting Office (GAO) to have fallen short (along with the US Navy) in providing adequate amphibious ship training.  https://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/12/02/amid-shortfalls-most-usmc-requests-ship-training-denied-last-year.html

These items may individually not make much headlines but collectively it speaks to the effects of a US military that has been at war since 2002.  Except of course that is the deception.  Starting with Bush then Obama and now Trump, no US President has asked Congress to declare war.  If Congress were to declare war on Al-Qaeda, ISIS, or the Taliban then there would also have to be an end date.

No end date means operations can continue unabated and can be conducted in multiple locations.  As a result, the US military has been in a constant state of war for 16 years.  The stress and strain to personnel and equipment is why we see the problems I listed above.

So to some it was great news when Trump signed the National Defense Authorization Act last month.  In addition to its $634 million in spending, it also has the first manpower increase authorization in seven years.  But looks are deceiving.

If we have been at war for 16 years (the longest in US history), then rather than celebrating more money and personnel to keep fighting shouldn't we be asking when will it end?   Oh and yes Russia, North Korea and Iran are threats but wouldn't the better strategy be to reduce our footprint in other theaters and focus on resetting our troops and equipment?

As a final thought, this weekend Hawaii was sent into panic as a false alarm went out about a missile launch.  After months of threats from North Korea, we find that our system for warning our citizen can send out a false alarm simply by someone pushing the wrong button?  We need to focus more on our training and re-assessing our systems and not spend more money on operations with no end-date in sight.

Welcome to 2018

As we begin the new year, let us reflect on nuclear weapons for a moment.  The Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War had in excess of 4,000 nuclear warheads.  The US wasn't too far behind with right around 4,000.  Today, Russia and the US have 1,950 warheads.  The smallest of these warheads are many times more powerful than those dropped on Hiroshima or Nagasaki. 

Somehow, despite some close calls, we all survived two major superpowers point nuclear weapons (not to mention conventional forces as well) at each other.  Oh and during this time, China, India, Pakistan, England, France and most likely Israel and South Africa developed nuclear weapons.  Yet none of these developments have fanned the flames of fear like North Korea.

Perhaps it's in part because Kim Jong Un seems disconnected from the reality of what a nuclear exchange with the US would mean.  Perhaps it's because Mr. Trump takes umbrage easily and retaliates via social media insults.  We have never seen two such petulant world leaders, even during the Cold War.

Mr. Obama and his predecessors chose not to engage with directly with the North Korean leader and preferred diplomatic measures to try to reign in Pyoanyang's nuclear program.  It is debatable how effective this was at stopping allowing North Korea to develop nuclear weapons technology, however it did keep Kim Jong Un's rhetoric down to a dull roar.

So is North Korea really more dangerous than a nuclear armed Russia or China?  From a strictly technological view (i.e. number of warheads) the short answer is no.  However, what makes North Korea or any nuclear power dangerous is the people in charge of those weapons.   And this is where things get interesting.

Mr. Trump successfully ran an election by being the very in-your-face kind of candidate he portrayed on his TV show.  While that made for good ratings and an inauguration, the same tactics don't work as well on the foreign policy front (and yes, it leaves much to be desired on the domestic front as well).  When does bluster stop and the shooting start?

Kim Jong Un is unfortunately even more unpredictable and dangerous.  From most accounts, he appears to have a volatile temper which may in part be fueled by nearly debilitating bouts of gout.  Those who disagree with him tend to be executed.  Two temperamental leaders with their fingers on the launch button that don't like each other, sounds like something out of an episode of 24. 

Thus far, Mr. Trump's rhetoric to not tolerate any further tests by North Korea have remained just talk.  However, with an increase of US forces in the region in the form of 3 carrier strike groups there is an increasing possibility of an incident between US and North Korean forces.  Or Mr. Trump could authorize some type of preemptive strike on North Korea.

With such little patience on social media these days to hear out anyone with a differing opinion, will we even realize we've declared war until it is too late?

Moving the Embassy

As the country breathes a sigh of relief over the loss of Roy Moore, the collective consciousness of the American public has already forgotten about Mr. Trump's decision to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Mr. Trump was able to do this without any prior notice thanks to the Jerusalem Embassy Act which was passed in 1995.  It more or less authorized the acquisition of buildings and materials necessary to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the capitol of Israel according to the Israelis but not recognized by the majority of countries. 

Clinton, Bush and Obama all avoided implementing the Jerusalem Embassy Act.  Perhaps all three saw little to be gained by unilaterally declaring Jerusalem as the undivided capitol of Israel, something the Palestinians and most Middle Eastern countries disagree with.

Mr. Trump, as far as I can tell, did not implement his decision on any foreign policy or national security basis.  Instead, he needed a victory back home to after failing to repeal Obamacare and lack of progress on tax reform.  It was essentially a middle finger to the Republicans and a reminder to the Trump-faithful that he was still shaking things up.

Most foreign policy experts predicted outbreaks of violence in the Middle East which have occurred but the real issue is US has now seemingly allied itself with Israel to the exclusion (and perhaps detriment) to it is relationship with the rest of the Middle East.

It was this type of thing that resulted in the 1973 Energy Crisis.  For those too young to remember, the US provided arms and support to Israel during the Yom Kippur War.  In retaliation, OPEC proclaimed and oil embargo.  The price of oil shot up from $3 to $12 a barrel.  Lines at gas stations wrapped around for blocks as people waited for gas.

Something like that could happen as well as an increase in further terrorist attacks.  One lone bomber detonated a pipe bomb in New York city, fortunately injuring mainly himself.  The United Kingdom is bracing for more terrorist attacks as well.

Hardcore Trump fans feel moving the embassy was long overdue.  I'm not persuaded that it does anything to further US interests in the region.  Israel was already a long standing ally.  So why now?

I began with Roy Moore and it seems fitting to finish with his failed election.  Mr. Trump originally had asked Moore to step down.  When he didn't, Mr. Trump switched his position and backed Moore.  These two decisions, backing Moore and moving the embassy, have resulted in Mr. Trump having only 32 percent approval rating. 

Hopefully lead Mr. Trump to take some other action as a means of regaining popularity.  North Korea remains extremely volatile and now China is making noise that will not remain on the fence in the event of an attack by the US.  With our attention so diverted, Russia has now started to build back up its nuclear arsenal as well as building bunkers.  Making it to the end of Mr. Trump's first term without a war is increasingly unlikely.

Is a nuclear attack imminent?

News cycles are driven by whatever generates the most views.  No new revelation there, however since the Trump campaign introduced us to "fake news" the major news sites have to increasingly must forsake news for scandal.  Hence, the constant bombardment of whoever the latest victim of sexual assault gets more views than say North Korea's missile program.

As we've all heard by now, North Korea successfully launched a missile that can strike to the Continental US.  Trump's top generals are sounding alarms that war could be imminent.  Yet most people are going about their business without regard to the imposing threat.  Having grown up doing the Cold War, I remember most people being very concerned that the Soviets could strike without warning.

The sociological and psychological factors are different in 2017 that say in 1967 or even 1987. People were acutely aware of the threat of a nuclear attack.  Perhaps 9-11 and the subsequent unending threat from terrorism has dulled their senses to new threats.  Or perhaps Mr. Trumps predilection for calling Kim Jung Un "Little Rocket Man" has smugly convinced the public that North Korea is a joke rather than a threat.

Why then hasn't Mr. Trump ordered a preemptive strike (as he has strongly hinted at in the past) to take out North Korea's missiles or manufacturing sites?

Mr. Trump has always been about the bluster more so than the action.  He may now realize that even with three carrier strike groups in the region, there is no way to take out North Korea's ballistic missile capabilities BEFORE North Korea retaliates by lobbing thousands of 175mm shells and 240mm rockets into Seoul.  Ten of thousands of South Koreans would be killed before US and ROK forces could even respond.

The other scenario is that North Korea has no intention of actually using ballistic missiles to strike at the US.  It would much easier to place a nuclear device in a shipping container destined for a US port and then detonating the weapon upon arrival.  Detecting such a device in time my not be possible unlike the scenarios we see in TV shows and movies.

Another and more alarming scenario could see North Korea retaliate by using biological weapons in the US.  Detecting these in time is extremely difficult and may result in hundreds of America dying of exposure (with hundreds of thousands panicking).

Mr. Trump may also be distracted by the flipping of Michael Flynn to Mueller's investigation.  Even if Mr. Trump isn't worried, his cabinet has to been feeling the pressure and are not focused as much on North Korea was we would like.

Insults via Twitter won't be enough to bring North Korea to the table.  The rumors of Secretary Tillerson soon being fired don't help.  Neither does leaving multiple diplomatic positions vacant.

We should also be concerned about the US Navy which will take the lead should an attack on North Korea occur.  There has been several warships damaged this year along with at least one aircraft loss which all seem to point to an overworked, under resourced service.  The Navy had to re-shuffle its entire fleet of F/A-18 fighters just to be able to deploy all three carriers to the region.  Sailors are not re-upping meaning the Navy has to rely more and more on the newest sailors to operate their systems.

I had a Navy vet recently hare with me that sonar and radar operators on US Navy ships often receive no training PRIOR to arriving on the ship.  Basic seamanship skills are also no longer taught in boot camp and follow schools.  If this is true then it goes a long way in explaining what happened with the USS Fitzgerald and USS McCain.

Can the US prevail against North Korea?  Sure, why not but the big question is what happens to the people of South Korea and the US in the process?

North Korea and Saudi Arabia

Since we last chatted, Mr. Trump has assemble three carrier strike groups (USS Theodore Roosevelt, USS Ronald Reagan and USS Nimitz) off the coast of the Korean peninsula.  For the first time since 2007, three US aircraft carriers will conduct drills as a foot stomp to Mr. Trump's assertion that the US will not back down from North Korea.

Given the accidents involving two US Navy destroyers back in summer, the carrier strike groups are at risk not only from retaliation by the North Koreans but by whatever navigational glitches plagued the USS McCain and USS Fitzgerald.  Some have argued that the navigational systems on the US Navy vessels had been hacked.  To  me, it seems hacking into the civilian cargo ship systems would be easier but whatever the case the fleet is still at risk.

Perhaps to avoid the investigations of Robert Mueller (who looks posed to hand out an indictment on former White House National Security Advisor Michael Flynn), Mr. Trump has traveled to Asia in a rather heavy-handed, grandiose gesture to stare-down the North Koreans and Chinese. 

The question Mr. Trump and his White House have not answered, and probably don't want to think about, is what happens should foreign policy via Twitter fail?  There are 51 million South Koreans and around 30,000 US troops stationed in South Korea that are vulnerable to any attack from the North.  It is only 120 miles roughly between Seoul and Pyongyang.  There is no time to evacuate or even shelter.  Hundreds of thousands of lives could be lost if North Korea retaliates.

Of course that does not include Japan or Guam.  So far North Korea seems focused on ballistic missiles rather than a conventional attack.  Japan and Guam therefore become the most likely targets as they are well within range of North Korean ballistic missiles.

How then would the US respond?  Any strikes to North Korea risk those living in South Korea.  The North Korean dictator is not going to lose face so his reactions to Mr. Trump's statements and Tweets will only worsen.  We should be concerned that few in the White House have the experience necessary to restore calm to US/North Korea relations.  If that were not concerning enough, Mr Trump has more or less said that he doesn't see his chief diplomat, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, being around for all four years!

It may be nothing more that the 21st Century way of bluster and posturing but doing so with a country determined to have nuclear weapons is dangerous.  One wrong step, one too many Tweets and a nuke gets launched. 

And now it appears matters have gotten worse.  Not because of anything Mr. Trump has done but because now Saudi Arabia and Lebanon may declare war with one another which could bring Israel and Iran into the conflict.  I truly hope Mr. Trump stays off of Twitter for this one.  There is too much history, too much bloodshed, too much intrigue to be handled by a few terse Tweets.

All of this seems an appropriate reminder why we celebrate Veteran's Day.  Regardless how the situation with North Korea or Middle East resolve, US troops will be called upon once again.  Happy Veteran's Day to all of my fellow vets!