Saturday, March 19, 2011

Allied Powers Declare Military Action Against Libya

In case you have not heard, UN has authorized a no-fly zone over Libya. A no fly-zone really doesn't address the Gaddafi's ground forces that are pounding the rebels. The rebels are not as well armed which raises the specter of Western supply of arms to the rebels. Hmm, last I checked Gaddafi was still the legally in charge of Libya despite his ruthless tactics. Arming rebels is an overt way of overthrowing a ruler the West has decided needs to go. Why aren't more Middle Eastern countries protesting? Perhaps because the same groups are trying to takeover in these countries as well and could use the help from the West.

Gaddafi survived years of UN sanctions during the aftermath of the Pan Am Flight 103 bombing. Before the outbreak of hostilities Libya produced around 2 percent of the world's oil. The West's intervention will inevitably be seen as a grab for the oil. Thus far, oil prices have not sky-rocketed as originally anticipated because of the crisis in Japan. The Japanese are not able to drive cars and trucks due to the earthquake so their need to import oil has dropped. The drop in demand from Japan is sufficient to keep prices from rising. However, Japan's demand is likely to rise once infrastructure is restored and to offset the loss of energy produced by Japan's nuclear reactors.

The United States is getting drug into ostensibly its third combat operation. US military doctrine has always looked at fighting one major campaign and a delaying on the second campaign. We will now have forces engaged in combat in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Libya. What most people don't realize is we also have military forces in the Columbia battling drug cartels. We will also increase the number of National Guard on the Southwest Border. OPEC is watching all of this with some delight as the military burns up to fight all of these conflicts. Military contractors are enjoying the boost to their stocks as the rush to provide parts and supplies for this latest operation.

I suspect President Obama will remain consistent with his predecessors and avoid pursuing approval under the War Powers Act. He will also follow suit with the Bush Administration in using private contractors to the maximum extent possible. Private contractors allow the ability to meet the mission requirements without running afoul of military end-strength numbers or constituents getting pissed off because their sons and daughters are dying. The private contractors may not even come from the United States as in the case of Bahrain (which is now using Pakistani contractors to quell unrest), the contractors maybe from other nations (such as Bolivia).

Allied Powers Declare Military Action Against Libya -

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