Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Brexit anyone?

While the world (or at least the world according to the US media) focused on the shootings in Orlando, another shooting occurred that may have a far greater impact.  Member of Parliament Jo Cox was shot and stabbed to death on June 16th.  Her support of Muslims seems to be why she was targeted, however her death has had a much larger impact by muting discussions on the UK pulling out of the European Union (the so called "Brexit").

If the UK does still vote to get out of the EU, the economics impact will be devastating to both the rest of the EU as well as the UK.  Which makes the timing of Cox's murder all the more suspicious.  Was it truly motivated by anti-Muslim sentiments or was a dupe found to mute dissension?

Looking back on some of my predictions, we see that Syria and Turkey continue to hate one another but it has led to any further escalations on a global scale (despite Turkey blasting a Russian fighter out of the sky).  The US Navy continues to harass China (and the Chinese Navy continues to harass the Navy right back).  It seems to be leading to a new type of Cold War but with no real acknowledgment by either side.

Russia has continued to play "Top Gun" with US reconnaissance aircraft (taking some time off to harass NATO aircraft as well).  Again sort of a return to Cold War type shenanigans but without any announced intentions.

Brazil is falling apart before our eyes and on the eve of the Olympics.  The governor of Rio de Janeiro has declared a state of emergency because they can't pay their public employees (including the police)!  If zika virus doesn't manage to create a disaster, the lack of security and infrastructure just might.

It seems like any of these situations could be escalated by ISIS but they seem to be content with popping off attacks in the US by supposed "lone-wolf" terrorists.  

All of this provides an uneven backdrop for our Presidential candidates.  I truly did not Hillary's health would allow her to run again but thus far, she has maintained the necessary tempo towards November.  Meanwhile, Trump seems to have decided that the campaign staff that got him the nomination is the wrong combination to get him elected.  Neither Hillary nor Trump have named their VP candidates as of this time.

It makes me even more certain though that something major is going to happen before November elections.  Perhaps a cyber attack or worse, an attack on our power grids during the peak month of August.  If zika virus does what ebola failed to do, we see large areas of the US under quarantine.  Most of the scenarios that seem likely to me also imply the possibility for martial law.  

Then again, the best fighters are the ones who know how to get you to drop your guard right before they deliver the knock-out.  So we may cruise right into the elections, end-up with a new President and then the bottom gets dropped out from under us.

2016, a very interesting year indeed.

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