Wednesday, April 3, 2013

North Korea

Unfortunately, it seems matters are worse. We have North Korea increasing the rhetoric to the point Chuck Hagel had to say this is becoming a dangerous situation. We have North Korea locking out South Korean workers from a factory. We have South Korea promising to meet in kind any escalation by the North. We have the US flying B-2 bombers as a show of force (as well as pre-positioning destroyers off the coast of North Korea along with THAD missiles). We have China massing troops on the border with North Korea (probably to prevent North Korean refugees from fleeing into China). We have President Obama saying that the US will help South Korea "hold the line", an order of magnitude change from what US policy has been over the last 60 years.

It would appear that we have the perfect storm. Two new leaders on the Korean peninsula trying to each not blink first. We have President Obama worried to death that he can't seem soft yet can't let this escalate into full blown nuclear exchange. If the President messes this up, the Democrats will lose wholesale in the upcoming elections. In Ohio, the formerly unpopular Republican John Kasich is going to run uncontested by any big name Democrat. If this can happen in Ohio, what would an Obama miscue mean for the rest of the nation?

The US has to worry about both the Korean situation and the Middle East. This has effectively crippled the US in being able to focus attention solely on one part of the world. It also means leaders and North Korean, Iran and Syria are more in control than Obama. The President risks losing much whether he acts or not.

What remains unclear is if China benefits from all of the North Korean posturing. Refugees rushing in will not help China achieve economic superpower status.

It is also unclear if the Obama administration will declare all out war (unlikely) or conduct surgical strikes of North Korea's long range missiles. If Obama strikes the missiles, there is no guarantee this won't lead to a full fledged assault on South Korea.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

This is very worrisome. Two nuclear powers with large defense establishments and a fascination with all things military, upping the ante daily. One is run by a childish autocrat who surrounds himself with yes-men and destroys anyone who disagrees with him. The other is run by an overweight North Korean. The North Koreans are aware of our capabilities so F-22 and B-2 airshows could only be seen as deliberate escalation on our part. We are poking a skunk with a stick.