While the world watched a lone gunmen murdered over 60 people, other developments continued unfettered. Iran taking over as president of OPEC at a time with relations with US at an all-time low does not bode well for the price of oil. The US narrowly missed defaulting for the first time in history just a few days ago. The markets are still quite skittish and consumer confidence is not where President Obama needs it. Even a small increase in the price of oil could have a devastating impact on the US economy. The relations between the US and Iran has been hot for last few years and if cooler heads do not prevail, we could see a conflict over oil.
Egypt and Libya are still unresolved. If you read something other than Western media, you will see a different take on the events in Libya. It makes you wonder if NATO will be able to bring about a regime change through aerial bombardment (and by the way, who really asked for Gaddafi to step down?). On a related note, the Pentagon is trying to cut its budget (again) which means fewer troops and weapons in the future. The US State Department has quietly been pursuing a private security force in what seems to be an attempt to offset the reductions at the Department of Defense.
If the State Department does pursue private contractors (mercenaries), then we can see further deterioration of relations with the Middle East. Unlike the DoD, the State Department does not fall under the War Powers act. Private forces could be use and would be subject to any of the restrictions imposed on our military.
guardian.co.uk
“If you would not be forgotten, as soon as you are dead and rotten, either write things worth reading, or do things worth the writing.”--Benjamin Franklin
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Thursday, July 28, 2011
U.S. Military Serviceman Arrested in Alleged Attack on Fort Hood
One AWOL soldier (and perhaps more later) has been arrested in Killeen, TX outside of Ft Hood. Details at this point are unclear if this was a legitimate plan or the rantings of a disgruntled soldier. Ft Hood was the site of an attack by Nidal Nissan who killed 13 and wounded 30 back in 2009. Ft Hood is home of First Arm West and the First Armored Cavalry Division amongst other brigades and regiments. Ft Hood is a large base and has a huge on base population of soldiers, civilians, and contractors.
Security on any given military facility starts outside the wire with passive detections systems alerting military police of approaching threats. At the gates, military police or contract security personnel check IDs. Depending on threat levels, vehicles may be physically searched before they are allowed on base.
Once past the security perimeter, things look much a city with roving military police patrols. Other than MPs, no one else on base is permitted to be armed. Someone like Nissan could have brought a weapon on legally to fire at the range. Once inside the perimeter, he could then start shooting people.
The latest incident at Ft Hood raises some questions for the military. The most obvious source of problems is the stress brought on by many years of deployments. Soldiers are taken away from their families and friends for a year at a time where they are exposed to danger and violence. Upon returning home, a difficult supervisor or bad appraisal could be all it takes to set in motion a violent attack.
The military tends to look out very well but looking back inside is still overlooked. Our surveillance systems are top notch and are designed to look at what's coming. We have very little capability to look back at what might already be here.
The last ten years have been grueling on all branches but the Army and Marines the most since they engage in close quarter combat. I don't think we truly understand what repeated deployments has done to our service members. I still maintain we know even less about the effects on female military members who have been in combat.
The other problem is what we just saw in Norway. Andres Breivik committed the greatest mass murder in the history of modern Norway. He posted several pictures of himself as a commando and decorated military officer. According to everything I've been able to research, Breivik was never in the military and actually had an exemption from military service. The pictures then show a "wanna-be" who fancied himself as a military here to legitimize his self-esteem.
Even in the US military, we have the wanna-be who never deployed or was never in combat (you vets know who I mean, the guy that claimed he went to the Q-course but can only score a 180 on his AFPT). These are the ones the military tends to forget about. The returning soldier from a combat area is screened and their battle-buddies (or wingman in the USAF) helps support and look out for them.
The wanna-be is left feeling jealous of the real combat veterans. They may invent some ridiculous fantasy about their record. For the most part, that's where it ends. Others however start to deteriorate more as teh gap widens between their fantasy world and reality.
The wanna-be exists outside the military as well. The guy who pretends to part of the local SWAT team or who has been secretly trained in the lost ninja arts. For the most part, we can safely ignore these people. However, every once in a while the wanna-be isn't satisfied with mere fantasy and we get the Andres Breivik reaction.
I'm sure neighbors and friends would describe Breivik as a nice guy. Translated, he didn't say much and kept his grass cut. We don't need to start getting paranoid of one another but in these times, if someone makes you feel uncomfortable you may want to pay a little more attention.
FoxNews.com
Security on any given military facility starts outside the wire with passive detections systems alerting military police of approaching threats. At the gates, military police or contract security personnel check IDs. Depending on threat levels, vehicles may be physically searched before they are allowed on base.
Once past the security perimeter, things look much a city with roving military police patrols. Other than MPs, no one else on base is permitted to be armed. Someone like Nissan could have brought a weapon on legally to fire at the range. Once inside the perimeter, he could then start shooting people.
The latest incident at Ft Hood raises some questions for the military. The most obvious source of problems is the stress brought on by many years of deployments. Soldiers are taken away from their families and friends for a year at a time where they are exposed to danger and violence. Upon returning home, a difficult supervisor or bad appraisal could be all it takes to set in motion a violent attack.
The military tends to look out very well but looking back inside is still overlooked. Our surveillance systems are top notch and are designed to look at what's coming. We have very little capability to look back at what might already be here.
The last ten years have been grueling on all branches but the Army and Marines the most since they engage in close quarter combat. I don't think we truly understand what repeated deployments has done to our service members. I still maintain we know even less about the effects on female military members who have been in combat.
The other problem is what we just saw in Norway. Andres Breivik committed the greatest mass murder in the history of modern Norway. He posted several pictures of himself as a commando and decorated military officer. According to everything I've been able to research, Breivik was never in the military and actually had an exemption from military service. The pictures then show a "wanna-be" who fancied himself as a military here to legitimize his self-esteem.
Even in the US military, we have the wanna-be who never deployed or was never in combat (you vets know who I mean, the guy that claimed he went to the Q-course but can only score a 180 on his AFPT). These are the ones the military tends to forget about. The returning soldier from a combat area is screened and their battle-buddies (or wingman in the USAF) helps support and look out for them.
The wanna-be is left feeling jealous of the real combat veterans. They may invent some ridiculous fantasy about their record. For the most part, that's where it ends. Others however start to deteriorate more as teh gap widens between their fantasy world and reality.
The wanna-be exists outside the military as well. The guy who pretends to part of the local SWAT team or who has been secretly trained in the lost ninja arts. For the most part, we can safely ignore these people. However, every once in a while the wanna-be isn't satisfied with mere fantasy and we get the Andres Breivik reaction.
I'm sure neighbors and friends would describe Breivik as a nice guy. Translated, he didn't say much and kept his grass cut. We don't need to start getting paranoid of one another but in these times, if someone makes you feel uncomfortable you may want to pay a little more attention.
FoxNews.com
Monday, July 25, 2011
Conservatie extremism
Sometime towards the end of the Cold War, the term "narco-terrorist" was coined to link the drug cartels with terrorists (Marxist/Lennist groups lost a major sponsor when the Soviet Union fell). Somewhere between the Pam Am 103 bombing and 9/11, we started to hear of radicalized Islamists who were Muslims with a tendency to commit violent acts against the West.
Labels make it easier to identify groups with similar behaviors and to direct intelligence activities. The shortfall is when you are looking for "radicalized Islamists" you tend to overlook activities that do not fit into that label. To further exacerbate this weakness, funding is often tied to the label so activities that aren't related to say "radicalized Islamists" don't get funded.
Now there already is a new term, conservative extremists which is different (according to the Financial TImes) from radical right-wing terrorism. Radical right-wing terrorism is primarily a political ideology represented by groups such as neo-Nazis. Conservative extremists are motivated by theology (conservative Christianity) as well as political ideology (pro-Israel). The combination of religious and political ideology sets this new groups to be diametrically opposed to Islam.
"Conservative extremism" explains why Breivik is from a Scandinavian country. According to the Financial Times article (linked at the bottom), "In addition to Norway’s Progress party – of which Mr Breivik was a member – the anti-immigrant Danish Peoples’ party, the rehabilitated neo-Nazi Sweden Democrats, the True Finns, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom in the Netherlands and France’s National Front have become electoral forces in recent years.
Norway and the Nordic countries have in the past had relatively large neo-Nazi movements. While the Sweden Democrats have been able to enter national politics, most other groups have faded over time."
Breivik wrote a 1,500 page manifesto which borrows heavily from Ted Kaczynski's manifesto (the Unabomber). He seems to be trying to link his motives to other groups yet most of the conservative Scandinavian groups have disavowed him.
Right wing violence is nothing new to Europe but Scandinavia has managed to keep activities primarily as political. Breivik may come to symbolize the current generation that are not satisfied with projected means of resolution, they want their iPad 2 now! Whatever his political leanings, it is obvious that Breivik felt the political route was too long and cumbersome and turned to the more expedient route of violence.
In one sense, he was correct. We may never have heard of political activist Breivik outside of Norway. The whole world has heard of Breivik the terrorist.
FT.com
Labels make it easier to identify groups with similar behaviors and to direct intelligence activities. The shortfall is when you are looking for "radicalized Islamists" you tend to overlook activities that do not fit into that label. To further exacerbate this weakness, funding is often tied to the label so activities that aren't related to say "radicalized Islamists" don't get funded.
Now there already is a new term, conservative extremists which is different (according to the Financial TImes) from radical right-wing terrorism. Radical right-wing terrorism is primarily a political ideology represented by groups such as neo-Nazis. Conservative extremists are motivated by theology (conservative Christianity) as well as political ideology (pro-Israel). The combination of religious and political ideology sets this new groups to be diametrically opposed to Islam.
"Conservative extremism" explains why Breivik is from a Scandinavian country. According to the Financial Times article (linked at the bottom), "In addition to Norway’s Progress party – of which Mr Breivik was a member – the anti-immigrant Danish Peoples’ party, the rehabilitated neo-Nazi Sweden Democrats, the True Finns, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom in the Netherlands and France’s National Front have become electoral forces in recent years.
Norway and the Nordic countries have in the past had relatively large neo-Nazi movements. While the Sweden Democrats have been able to enter national politics, most other groups have faded over time."
Breivik wrote a 1,500 page manifesto which borrows heavily from Ted Kaczynski's manifesto (the Unabomber). He seems to be trying to link his motives to other groups yet most of the conservative Scandinavian groups have disavowed him.
Right wing violence is nothing new to Europe but Scandinavia has managed to keep activities primarily as political. Breivik may come to symbolize the current generation that are not satisfied with projected means of resolution, they want their iPad 2 now! Whatever his political leanings, it is obvious that Breivik felt the political route was too long and cumbersome and turned to the more expedient route of violence.
In one sense, he was correct. We may never have heard of political activist Breivik outside of Norway. The whole world has heard of Breivik the terrorist.
FT.com
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Norway attacker was a political Terminator
Thanks to Quimbob for sending me this link. As often happens, we want to focus on the terrorist and lose focus on what might else have been at work. In this case, the Utoya camp was not so much a summer camp as a political training camp. At least one witness mentioned in a CNN interview that he only became politically active after attending this camp.
Eighty-two of Norway's future political activists have been killed. The media will make this out to be a lone gunman without considering the political motivations for his actions. This is not excusing it, just adding more dimension to what will inevitably will become a cliched terrorist in the minds of the media.
The picture of him in Masonic dress is also misleading. He may have been a Mason at one time but we don't know if he is still in good standing or may even have been expelled. Unlike in the US where Masonic lodges follow either Scottish or York rite, Norway follows Swedish Rite. The Swedish Rite demands members be Christian and not just that they believe in a supreme being. That is consistent with reports that he is a fundamentalist Christian.
Daily Kos
Eighty-two of Norway's future political activists have been killed. The media will make this out to be a lone gunman without considering the political motivations for his actions. This is not excusing it, just adding more dimension to what will inevitably will become a cliched terrorist in the minds of the media.
The picture of him in Masonic dress is also misleading. He may have been a Mason at one time but we don't know if he is still in good standing or may even have been expelled. Unlike in the US where Masonic lodges follow either Scottish or York rite, Norway follows Swedish Rite. The Swedish Rite demands members be Christian and not just that they believe in a supreme being. That is consistent with reports that he is a fundamentalist Christian.
Daily Kos
Police aren't ruling out more suspects in Norway attacks
CNN is reporting that the police are not ruling out more suspects in the bombing. One of the reports about the incident referred to Anders Behring Breivik as a "lone nut". The media and conspiracy theorists have never been satisfied with the lone gunman theory dated back to the Kennedy assassination. It doesn't mean it isn't possible, just that we have a hard time accepting a lone perpetuator of mass violence (although TV and movies portray this very scenario all of the time).
In the same manner, security experts and intelligence analysts are looking for the Islamic connection. You just can't be a terrorist these days without being part of Al Qaeda or some other radicalized Islamic group, don't you know. Of course if comes to pass that Breivik is not part of an Islamic movement, he can always be cast part of the right-wing extremist movement.
The Internet is flooded with a picture of Breivik in Masonic regalia. The conspiracy theorists are salivating at this "proof" of a Masonic/Illuminati connection. We don't even know at this point if Breivik was really a Mason or if he just posed in Masonic regalia. One report claimed that all of Breivik's photos on his Facebook account (and I'm assuming the Masonic picture as well) were all uploaded only a week before the bombing.
The Norway bombing and massacre now has the rest of the world thinking that it isn't just radicalized Islamic terrorist groups you have to worry about, now anyone could be a terrorist. And after all, isn't that what all terrorists want us to worry about?
CNN.com
In the same manner, security experts and intelligence analysts are looking for the Islamic connection. You just can't be a terrorist these days without being part of Al Qaeda or some other radicalized Islamic group, don't you know. Of course if comes to pass that Breivik is not part of an Islamic movement, he can always be cast part of the right-wing extremist movement.
The Internet is flooded with a picture of Breivik in Masonic regalia. The conspiracy theorists are salivating at this "proof" of a Masonic/Illuminati connection. We don't even know at this point if Breivik was really a Mason or if he just posed in Masonic regalia. One report claimed that all of Breivik's photos on his Facebook account (and I'm assuming the Masonic picture as well) were all uploaded only a week before the bombing.
The Norway bombing and massacre now has the rest of the world thinking that it isn't just radicalized Islamic terrorist groups you have to worry about, now anyone could be a terrorist. And after all, isn't that what all terrorists want us to worry about?
CNN.com
Saturday, July 23, 2011
The New Face of Terrorism?
CNN is running this picture of a suspect in the Norway bombing and shootings. As of now, 91 are dead in the Norway attacks. One of the targets was a youth camp where around 600 were attending. The suspect dressed as a policeman opened fire and killed 84 campers in a shooting spree that witnesses say lasted nearly two hours.
Norway has been throughout most of the 20th and 21st centuries are neutral country more known for its fiords than for invading countries or persecuting minorities. Like much of Scandinavia, Norway is a progressive country with very liberal policies towards immigration. The openness towards immigrants may have be the motive behind the attacks.
The last time Norway had been at war was during the Nazi occupation. Since then, Norway has been a very peaceful place to visit and live. The attack had the kind of success most terrorists can only dream of; an almost paradise wrecked by violence against children. The media and governments will be pontificating about the events for weeks.
The attack comes less than two months from the ten year anniversary of 9/11. It seems ominously coincidently and will have both security professionals as well as conspiracy theorists conjecturing on the timing. Gun control advocates will be beating their drums for disarmament and the NRA loyalists will be launching counter-attacks. DHS will be revamping screening procedures and will be asking for more money to purchase high-tech equipment to detect future attacks.
At the end of the day, none of that would have mattered. At least one person (perhaps more) attack a soft target and was successful. We cannot fortify every single summer camp, little league baseball game or high school football game. If someone wants to commit violence, they will find a way.
The Norway attack stands as a stark reminder that even in Utopia, violence can strike. Oh and it doesn't take a radicalized Muslim either!
Friday, July 22, 2011
Terror Warning Warns of Insider Threat to Infrastructure
"A new intelligence report from the Department of Homeland Security issued Tuesday, titled Insider Threat to Utilities, warns "violent extremists have, in fact, obtained insider positions," and that "outsiders have attempted to solicit utility-sector employees" for damaging physical and cyber attacks." ABC News
On one hand, it really is no surprise that Al Qaeda may already have operatives here in country. It was the same way 10 years ago. The targets mentioned in the ABC article are also no surprise. Water system have the potential of effecting the largest number of people. Nuclear power plants have been in the news lately since the Fukishima disaster. Their safety records and reports of violations make them even likelier targets for attack.
What is surprising about this report is since her appointment, Secretary Napolitano has been stressing border security. This then raises the question of how effective was her efforts to secure the border? The Obama Administration seems schizophrenic on this issue having DHS on one hand stress the need to secure the borders but the rest of the administration fighting for less strict immigration policies. You can pursuit both without essentially neutralizing both.
We are less than two months away from the tenth anniversary of 9/11, more reports will surely surface claiming another plot. The challenge is going to be remaining vigilant without becoming panicked or cynical.
ABC News
On one hand, it really is no surprise that Al Qaeda may already have operatives here in country. It was the same way 10 years ago. The targets mentioned in the ABC article are also no surprise. Water system have the potential of effecting the largest number of people. Nuclear power plants have been in the news lately since the Fukishima disaster. Their safety records and reports of violations make them even likelier targets for attack.
What is surprising about this report is since her appointment, Secretary Napolitano has been stressing border security. This then raises the question of how effective was her efforts to secure the border? The Obama Administration seems schizophrenic on this issue having DHS on one hand stress the need to secure the borders but the rest of the administration fighting for less strict immigration policies. You can pursuit both without essentially neutralizing both.
We are less than two months away from the tenth anniversary of 9/11, more reports will surely surface claiming another plot. The challenge is going to be remaining vigilant without becoming panicked or cynical.
ABC News
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