Weekend wrap-up 7/7/15

Over the weekend, Cincinnati decided to jump back into the fray of racial tensions despite significant progress since the April 2001 riots.  Initial reports talked about a "mob" (translation, group of African-Americans) who punched a Cincinnati police officer (translation, "white" officer).  The mob had been rioting and police arrived on scene to deal with the situation.  Now reports indicate the "mob" was in response to an prior altercation between one of the mob and a white male.  Immediately whites began to question why the police were not calling this a "hate-crime" or "anti-white crime".  Info Wars published today a post showing the original police report identifying the incident as "anti-white" but official CPD and city hall are not calling this a hate crime.

To some, this affirms the bias in media reporting.  To others, this affirms Cincinnati's rampant crime problem (even though during this same period, Chicago had over 50 shootings resulting in 9 deaths).  From what I can tell from the reports, it appears the white "victim" was running his mouth and using vulgarity towards one of the blacks.  I'm assuming since this was at Fountain Square, either alcohol and/or drugs had been consumed by both resulting in punches being thrown and the victim being choked.  Racial tensions not being the best (especially after the media's coverage in the last year), the fight resulted in multiple people engaging in violence.  As politicians, city officials and the media try to assess blame one thing remains constant…people are afraid Cincinnati is more dangerous than ever.

Over the weekend, my favorite former CNN Anchor, Lynne Russell, and her husband were attacked by a would-be robber in a hotel in Albuquerque, New Mexico.  A gunfight resulted in which the robber was killed and her husband was shot three times.  Gun control advocates see this as a call for more stringent laws while gun rights advocates see this as proof why concealed carry should be allowed in all 50 states.  However whichever side of the argument you fall one thing is the same…more fear that the world has become more dangerous.

I hadn't really planned on writing about either event until reading the latest Rasmussen poll.  According to a poll published yesterday, fifty-two (52) percent think the US is a more dangerous place today than it was before 9/11.  John Mueller at the Ohio State University and the Cato Institute published a report back in April 2015 looking at all of the terrorist attacks in the US since 9/11.  There have been 61 cases resulting in 15 deaths (12 soldiers killed at Ft Hood and 3 civilians killed at the Boston Marathon).  That's it, 15 deaths according to the report.  The rest of the "attacks" were either unsuccessful or thwarted in advance.  Yet people are convinced the US is more dangerous than before.

Let's look at 9/11.  There were 2,997 victims (246 on the four aircraft that crashed, 2,606 in the World Trade Towers, and 125 at the Pentagon).  These deaths sent US troops into 2 different wars that lasted longer than any other US wars.  In comparison, 2001 there were 17,448 fatalities due to drunk drivers yet people are more afraid of a terrorist attack or random armed attacker than they are from a drunk driver.

If crime and terrorism aren't your thing, then the economy could be giving you sleepless nights.  The Greek economy has defaulted and may mean the end of the European Union.  Depending on how Anglica Merkel navigates this mess, the US may or may not be drug into keeping the EU afloat.  Things don't look better if Merkel is successful for China (yes, that up and coming economic superpower) just had a stock market crash seeing $3.2 wiped from the value of Chinese shares.  It makes the Greek crisis look infinitely more manageable.

And of course the US has its own economic crisis in Puerto Rico.  Even if the crisis is successfully mitigated (note I said mitigate, not avoided), Mr. Obama has set the stage for more economic woes with his mandatory overtime for salaried employees and support for raising the minimum wage to $15.  Employers are not going to be able afford mandatory health care + mandatory paid overtime + a $15 minimum wage.  Looks like more part-time employees, contractors and robots in our immediate future.

What all of this means is we are not going to be able to look to our government and elected officials to fix these problems.  We need to remind ourselves of the family and friends around us that aren't shooting holes in one another or planning to blow something up.  Keep those family and friends safe and focused on doing good.  No, this isn't some type of self-help psychobabble.  It is a practical strategy for weathering the next several years.  If we watch too much news or listen to too much talk radio, we will become paralyzed with fear and become incapable of action.  And that my friends is how they plan to win.

Why so much French and not Nigerian?

Our Western sensibilities were threatened when 3 terrorists killed 12 French citizens in response to Charlie Hebdo's satirical cartoon.  The terrorists then fled and killed another French police officer.  French Special Forces have just dispatched the terrorists.  Checking CNN, Fox, and NBC websites today, you would would assume this was the worse massacre thus far in 2015.  You would be wrong.

Let's go back to spring last year, a relatively unknown group called "Boko Haram" kidnapped 300 school girls.  The news outlets all wondered how Hillary Clinton, while still the Secretary of State, had refused to label Boko Haram a terrorist group.  Obama and Kerry flailed around before deciding to send in Special Forces to help advise the Nigerians on how to locate the kidnapped school girls.

Then Daesh took the attention away from the news and the White House from Boko Haram.  The school girls still have not been found and while the terrorists in France may have made a bigger splash, their death toll of 13 pales in comparison to Boko Harams 2000 and displaced 1.5 million in just 2014 alone.

Boko Haram has started to make the non-US news sites again as the increase their activities in an attempt to disrupt elections scheduled for Feb 14th.  They just wiped out 10,000 (the estimated population of Baga, Nigeria).  You won't' see that on American websites and because of that, you could draw some really ugly conclusions.  Let's just say for now that minds are far more interested in three terrorists that may be linked to a group that may attack Americans compared to an extremely vicious group of nasties that for now are hellbent on killing their fellow countrymen.

But given that Boko Haram is a militant Islamic group, should we be just as concerned about their spread as much as we are concerned about Daesh?  The US is concerned (rightly) that Daesh has seized Syrian oil fields which produce around $2 million per day but the same concern is absent about Boko Haram which can control all of Nigeria's oil field (which produce somewhere 16-35 million barrels of oil).

Yes it was a horrible tragedy that 13 French citizens were killed by three terrorists who had a beef about a cartoon.  But why is there more coverage for this tragedy than the wholesale massacre of Nigerians?  Our biases in reporting often follow how intelligence assessments are focused.  If the news is all about France, trust me that's what the President is getting briefed on.  If no one is covering Nigeria (other than BBC), Mr. Obama is only getting sporadic updates.

Myopia is not only a disease of the eye, it is also a state of mind.  If we continue to have a myopic view of terrorism, we won't see the next attack coming and everyone will wonder why.

Winter Olympics

Forty-two years ago, 11 members of the Israeli Olympic team were taken hostage were taken hostage by the Palestinian terrorist group Black September.  Elite counter-terrorism units did not exist (even though the Special Air Service (SAS) has existed since 1950 it would not be until the 1980 Iranian Embassy siege in London that they would make their mark as a counter-terrrorist unit).  After the German police negotiations failed, they attempted to rescue the Israeli hostages via air assault and snipers….something the German police were not trained to do in 1972.  The results were all hostages, one German police officer and 5 of the 8 terrorists were killed.  The failure resulted in the formation of the famed GSG9 (Grenz Schutz Gruppe 9).

Forty-two years later, US officials "believe there would be major obstacles to mounting a large-scale rescue effort as Russia has historically been reluctant to allow foreign military forces – especially those of the US – on Russian territory, according to a source familiar with Obama administration discussions."--The Guardian

The 2014 Winter Olympics will be held in Sochi, Russia located on the Black Sea coast near the border between Georgia/Abkhazia and Russia. Sochi is the largest Russian resort city and one of the very few places in Russia with a subtropical climate, with warm to hot summers and mild winters.  The irony of hosting the Winter Olympics in the one place in Russia where it DOESN'T snow has not been lost on the world.

What seems to have been minimized is what a particularly dangerous region this tends to be.  Let's begin with Abkhazia.

Abkhazia is a disputed territory on the eastern coast of the Black Sea and southwestern flank of the Caucaus.  Abkhazia considers itself independent, a status recognized by Russia but disputed by Georgia (and a majority of the world governments) consider is part of their republic (albeit autonomous).  On Jan 17, 2014 the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO) published the following from the Abkhazia board meeting, "The main directions of foreign policy of Abkhazia as it was said by the President of the Republic of Abkhazia is strengthening of strategic partnership with the Russian Federation and progress of wide international recognition of independence of the Republic of Abkhazia."--Ministry of Affairs Board Meeting

The potential for a clash between Georgia and Abkhazia could occur during the Winter Olympics as could the uprising in the Ukraine that has been waging since nov 21st.  "The events (on Sunday) come in the wake of weeks of public protests after Yanukovych's decision in November to spurn a planned trade deal with the European Union and turn toward Russia instead."--CNN

The Ukraine forms the northern shore of the Black Sea.  According CNN, Caitlin Hayden (spokeswoman for the National Security Council) said, "The increasing tension in Ukraine is a direct consequence of the government failing to acknowledge the legitimate grievances of its people. Instead, it has moved to weaken the foundations of Ukraine's democracy by criminalizing peaceful protest and stripping civil society and political opponents of key democratic protections under the law"

Two areas in the region have reasons to make trouble at the Winter Olympics but there is a third region that many have forgotten about. About 400 miles to the east of Sochi is Chechnya.  There is a long a violent history between Russia and Chechnya.

During Czarist times, the Nakh and Malkh tribes of the region wanted to be free from Russian (which was Christian at the time) and turned to Islam as its liberating ideology.  The Ottomans ended-up betraying the rebellion which was led by Mansur Ushurma, a Chechen Naqshbandi (Sufi) sheikh to the Russians who excited him in 1794. The resistance of the Nakh tribes never ended and was a fertile ground for a new Muslim-Avar commander Imam Shamil, who fought against the Russians from 1834 until 1859. The leader who took over for Shamil was Chechen Boysangur Benoiski who broke through the siege and continued to fight Russia in full scale warfare for another 2 years until he was captured and killed by Russians.

By 1860s, Russia switched to a policy of deporting the Nakh which did weaken but not completely end the resistance.  Under the Soviet Union, Chechnya did not fare much better.  Some Chechens rose up against Soviet rule during the 1940s, resulting in the deportation of the entire ethnic Chechen and Ingush populations to what is now Kazakhstan and Siberia in 1944 near the end of World War II where over 60% of Chechen and Ingush populations perished. The Chechens were allowed to return after 1956 but found many Russian immigrants on their lands. Struggles between Chechnya and Russia up until today.

The First Chechen War took place over a two-year period that lasted from 1994 to 1996, when Russian forces attempted to regain control over Chechnya, which had declared independence in November 1991. Despite overwhelming numerical superiority in men, weaponry, and air support, the Russian forces were unable to establish effective permanent control over the mountainous area due to numerous successful Chechen guerrilla raids.--Wikipedia

The War of Dagestan began on 7 August 1999, during which the Islamic International Brigade (IIPB) began an unsuccessful incursion into the neighbouring Russian republic of Dagestan in favor of the Shura of Dagestan which sought independence from Russia. In September, a series of apartment bombs that killed around 300 people in several Russian cities, including Moscow, were blamed on the Chechen separatists. 

In response to the bombings, a prolonged air campaign of retaliatory strikes against the Ichkerian regime and a ground offensive that began in October 1999 marked the beginning of the Second Chechen War. Much better organized and planned than the first Chechen War, the Russian military took control over most regions. 

In October 2002, 40–50 Chechen rebels seized a Moscow theater and took about 900 civilians hostage. The crisis ended with a large death toll mostly due to an unknown aerosol pumped throughout the building by Russian special forces to incapacitate the people inside. In September 2004, separatist rebels occupied a school in the town of Beslan, North Ossetia, demanding recognition of the independence of Chechnya and a Russian withdrawal. 1,100 people (including 777 children) were taken hostage. The attack lasted three days, resulting in the deaths of over 331 people, including 186 children. 

Russia installed a pro-Moscow government in 2003 which reintegrated  Chechnya with Russia.  In April 2009, Russia ended its counter-terrorism operation and pulled out the bulk of its army.

Sorry for the long history lesson but it was necessary to set-up the emergence of this guy.

That's Doku Umarov the Chechen jihadist leader blamed for the two suicide bombings in Volgograd in Russia over Christmas.  Canadian counter-terrorism agencies have dubbed him the "Russian Osama bin Laden" and said he poses the greatest terrorism threat for the Sochi games.  According the the Daily Mail, "The report warns: ‘Doku Khamaiovich Umarov is a fervent Islamist who espouses AQ’s [Al Qaeda’s] ideology of global jihad...His view that Israeli, US and UK interests are legitimate targets raises concerns that any Westerners could be targeted."

Checnhya, Abkhazia, and Ukraine all have a long history of violence and the Winter Games will provide over 15,000 visitors from around the world as potential targets for terrorists.  Recognizing this threat, Vladmir Putin has ordered over 40,000 troops into Sochi and surrounding areas to provide security.  From all accounts, the Russians are not playing around and security is quite intense.

Yet despite these precautions, this video of the two suicide bombers from Volgograd is up on CNN.  It is easy to over-estimate the ability for a potential terrorist attack but in this part of the world, it seems almost too likely.

Boston

Reports still coming in but it seems at least two explosions killed two and injured at least 134 at the Boston Marathon.  The devices were hidden in backpacks which in-turn were placed in barricades after the area had been cleared by authorities.

No group has claimed responsibility as of my writing this.  Is it terrorism?  For those that are empowered to annotate such things (DHS, CIA, FBI), the final word is still hours or days away.  However, the images of injured and mangled spectators from the Boston Marathon will soon replace the anguished faces of parents whose children were murdered at Sandy Hook.  In that regard, it is terrorism regardless of the motives of the perpetrators.

Last week I wrote about North Korea and the escalation towards if not nuclear conflict, certainly a return to a shooting war.  Shortly after I wrote that, North Korea confirmed it would target Japan first more or less guaranteeing a direct hit for their missiles and dragging the US into war.

Secretary Kerry attempted to appease the North Koreans by offering to stop the deployment of anti-missile batteries to the theater for the exchange of the cessation of their nuclear weapons programs.  The problem with appeasement is there is your risk looking weak and your foe may be emboldened to escalate the situation.

To me, I can't help but feel as the more is learned about the Boston explosions we may find a link to North Korea.  Secretary Kerry is from Massachusetts and this may be North Korea (or China, Russia or any other group that has a beef with the Obama Administration) way of making a statement.  Let's not forget also that the airliners that American Flight 11 and United Airlines Flight 175 (which both crashed into the World Trade Centers) departed from Boston's Logan International Airport.

Someone asked me today at work if it could be international terrorists?  Possibly but it could just as easily be the 21st Century version of Oklahoma City.  There is much resentment towards the Obama Administration, especially with the increased calls for additional gun control legislation.

The next few days will only reveal more questions than answers.  Just check your FB page and see how many people are asking, why?!  There is no answer to that question other than the need for some to use violence to make a statement.

Surgical Approach

This morning driving into to work I learned the reason President Obama has chosen Kerry for State and Hagel for Defense is because of his preference for a "surgical approach" to fighting terrorism instead of the long and protracted wars of the last 12 years.

Immediately my mind flashed back to how we got in this situation in the first place.  Our journey begins with the same war that gives Kerry and Hagel their street creds.

The United States military of the late 1950s and 1960s were still about fighting major battles with enemy militaries.  Large manuever units, waves of fighters and bombers along with fleets of ships were going to be needed in the post World War II world.

Korea was the first post WWII conflict and reinforced the notion of force-on-force conflicts.  What was missed is that Korea was fought only to a cease fire.  To this day, Korea remains the longest cease fire in the history of warfare.

President Kennedy have some inkling that he would needed some other type of way of waging war and became enamored of special forces.  It was the use of special forces in Indochina (who were there to train resistance fighters) that would lead to the Vietnam War.

As the 1960s went on, it became increasingly necessary to deploy more and more troops into Vietnam.  Unfortunately, the Johnson Administration really did not understand what type of war was being waged.  The North Vietnamese certainly had fighter jets and tanks but as the years wore on the Vietcong relied more on guerrilla tactics.  American military forces were still fighting a classic force-on-force war against small units that would disappear into the thick jungles.

Vietnam was also the first war that showed the horrors of war on TV.  The long, indecisive battle in a country most people still could not find on a map resulted in little public support.  The counter-culture revolution was also in full swing populated by young adults that would not just blindly follow the propaganda of the United States government.

In the end, the US military lost credibility and face with the American public.  Veterans came home physically broken and mentally damaged to an unsympathetic public.  It was a war in which no one really won.

The Ford and Carter administrations as a result could not really pursue any type of strategy that would require large military conflicts.  A sort of non-engagement policy took effect.  We would really on our nuclear force to deter the Soviets but it did not seem the military would drawn into another major conflict.

Then on November 4, 1979 the world changed.  The puppet Shah of Iran (placed in power through the help of the CIA) had oppressed the Iranian people for long enough.  He was deposed and the US embassy was siezed.  For the next 444 days, the US stood in disbelief as every night on ABC news we learned that there was NOTHING that we could do.

President Carter tried using the newly formed Delta Force to rescue the hostages and they suffered one of the worst failures by US special forces ever.  During a hot refueling in blowing sand.  One of the helicopters lost visual with the HC-130 and turned into it. The resulting explosing killed 8 service members and forced the mission to be aborted (because Carter would not authorize the requested number of helicopters in the first place).

Reagan's inauguration began with the release of the prisoners.  The Reagan Administration pursued a massive build-up of the US military as if to warn Iran and others, "never again".  Reagan would never use this massive military in a force-on-force confrontation but did create the first surgical strike.

When US servicemembers were killed in the 1986 discotheque bombing, the Reagan Administration determined those responsible were from Libyan.  As a result, Reagan authorized Operation El Dorado Canyon.

On April 16, 1986, eighteen FB-111s would drop 60 tons of explosives on Tripoli (note, the French would not allow the USAF to overfly their airspace.  As a result, crews had to fly around our ally).  Civilian targets were hit but more likely were struck as a result of the Libyan air defense artillery slew their barrels backwards to fire at the departing jets.  Hence began the new notion of sending in airstrikes whenever you were pissed off at someone.

Reagan would also go after another terrrorist in Norriega by sending in Special Forces.  Unlike Hussein and Qaddaffi, Norriega survived the operation.

When it was George H. Bush's turn, he went back to a force on force scenario that strike at Iraqi forces in Kuwait. It was the one sure way to get the Iraqi occupying force out and by using "coalition forces", the first Bush administration was able to avoid potential risks of a Western/Christian based superpower attacking a Sovereign/Muslim country.

The real lesson learned though became the realization that daylight, precision bombing had finally become a reality. Bombs could be sent down the window of a suspected target. When weaponeers (those who planned the loads for USAF fighters and bombers) had a surplus of 500lbs bombs, they hooked laser guided heads and inventing the quaint art of "tank-plinking" (a term the late Gen Schwarzkopf despised!).

Desert Storm was fast and sexy. US casualties were quite low and audiences were treated to scenes of Iraqi military targets being vaporized by US airpower. The lowly A-10 became the darling of the US military. Not only could it turn Iraqi tanks into Swiss cheese, it became a flying watchdog protecting downed US airmen from Iraqi forces. Iraqi troops would later say just the sound of the A-10 engines were enough to cause them to lose control of their bowels.

The Clinton Administration took from this that the best way to answer the 1993 World Trade Center bombing was to use airpower. Clinton's preferred method of anonymous shooting was not manned fighters but rather cruise missiles. His preference being the result of the failures in Somalia. Much like Carter before him, Clinton sent Rangers and Delta Force into Somalia without the armor they needed. The Clinton administration wrongly assumed that the Blackhawks could fly above the fracas with immunity.

The second Bush administration tried to follow the first Bush administration and use massive military power to swat a fly. Somewhere along the way George W. and Chaney forgot to read about the Soviets results in Afghanistan and sent Marines and Army troops in to right the wrongs of 9/11. Chaney and Rumsfeld decided that the war in Iraq needed to be completed on the cheap and declared war on Iraq due to their position of weapons of mass destruction.

Hussein was ousted and eventually captured and executed. Osama bin Laden would take much longer and cost many lives on all sides. In the end, Osama bin Laden was dispatched by two rounds from a SEAL.

The build-up necessary to wage war under the George W. (and the first term of the Obama administration) is too costly to maintain over the long haul. The advent of drones has taken the notion of precision airstrikes to an even more sophisticated than Desert Storm planners could have ever imagined.

Drones can remain on station longer, at lower altitudes, and can do much more damage with smaller warheads since they are even more precise than Desert Storm airborne weapons. The USAF has moved more towards using warheads as small as 250lbs on the B-1B since targeting systems allow for precise placement on the target. You don't need to blow up the whole city blow when all that is needed is a single head shot.

This brings us back to the beginning. The Obama Administration now wants to rely on drones to execute a "surgical approach" instead of using massive military force. The lead would also go to the CIA instead of DOD. This should cause alarm for the public as this means much less transparency in regards to who is being targeted and why.

The more we head towards a "drone war", the easier it will be for the government to target without comment from the public. By risking our sons and daughters, we HAVE to have the American public's approval. No one cares about a drone.

The Obama administration seems to not understand that if you shoot someone with a missile, their friends and relatives will get pissed. Send in a Marine Amphibious Group and everyone wants to offer you tea. There are gains to sending in armed troops you just don't get by conducting long range, anonymous airstrikes.

Our involvement in Libya, Egypt, Algeria and Mali have only emboldened Al Qaeda to strike (something they did seem to want to do under George W.). If you want to stop Al Qaeda, you have to make all of their family, friends, and potential friends feel like they have something to lose. Otherwise the targets just become martyrs.

You only need look at "The Troubles". The British SAS sniped at the IRA for decades. They even rounded up all "potential" IRA members and sent them to the "Maze". Instead of reducing the number of IRA operatives, the numbers actually increased. The Obama administration is doing the same thing with Al Qaeda.

Algeria

Now that didn't take long. Reports are coming in about the "Battalion of Blood" storming a gas production facility in Algeria and capturing 41 foreigners. The Battalion of Blood is demanding a halt to military operations against Al Qaeda insurgents in Mali.

A local source told Reuters six foreign hostages were killed along with eight captors when the Algerian military fired on a vehicle being used by the gunmen. Mauritania's ANI news agency, which has been in constant contact with the kidnappers, said seven hostages were still being held: two Americans, three Belgians, one Japanese and one British citizen. It quoted one of the kidnappers as saying that Algerian ground forces were trying to fight their way into the complex. Reuters

After I wrote my blog about Mali, I was going to wrtie one abou the French and their involvement in Indochina (Vietnam) in the mid 1940s through 1950s. The French attempted to use conventional forces and tactics to fight unconventional forces (the Viet Minh) in a jungle. The result was the eventual defeat of the French at Dien Bien Phu. You may recall US forces had a similar experience a mere ten years later fighting the Viet Cong with conventional forces with the end result being the same as the French.

In the 1980s, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. Despite the long history of others who tried and failed (including the might 19th Century British Army), the Soviets had one thing up their sleeve that should have made the difference. The Mujahideen fighters loved to run up into mountain caves and fired down on their enemies. Works like a charm on infantry, cavalry and even armored troops. It doesn't work so hot against a flying tank better known as the Mi-24 Hind. A hovering gunship was not something the Mujahideen were ready for until the US gave them stinger missiles (through our former friend, Osama bin Laden). The carnage became too high even for the Soviets and they pulled out.

Then in 2002, the US thought it was worth a shot chasing Osama bin Laden around Afghanistan. Needless to say, the US faced the same challenges as the Soviets. Ten years later, and the Obama administration is pulling out and there is not a lot to show for all of the carnage (remember, Osama bin Laden was actually killed in Pakistan).

It seems to me the West (especially the United States) is being drawn slowly into another Vietnam, only on a much larger scale. The US has been focused on Iran and Syria but now is also involved in Mali and potentially Algeria. We are still trying to use conventional forces to fight a hit and run type of foe. We do not have the forces to deal with all of these pop-ups and our enemies know it.

The British and French for that matter aren't that well off militarily either. Protracted involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan have tired the populace and caused a depletion of much of their wartime spares. Escalating conflicts in Northern Africa is not something the West should be drawn into.

Since the Tehran Embassy crisis, the West has focused on the Middle East as the potential region for a major conflict. What this mindset overlooks is that pan-Islamism is actually rooted in Northern Africa (the very region we are now being drawn into). The more Western military forces are used, the more strength the movement to create an Islamic state becomes.

A retrospective

This time of year, many people reflect on what has happened as a way of figuring our what may happen in the future. Looking at world affairs, it seems 9/11 may be a good place to start.

Qaddafi, Hussein, and bin Laden have been killed in the years since 9/11 yet much remains unchanged. Al Qaeda remains the terrorist boogeyman and the Middle East is perhaps less stabilized than before the beginning of the war on terror. Mubarak's ouster has had a more dramatic impact with the ascendancy of the Muslim Brotherhood (which was outlawed by Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar Sadat).

In Obama's second term, Kerry will replace Clinton at State, Hagel has been nominated for Defense and Brennan will take over at the Central Intelligence Agency. Kerry is not seen as doing anything to lessen use military presence overseas. Hagel is seen as anti-Israel and Brennan is seen as major proponent of drones. The three combined means tensions in the Middle East are unlikely to be decreased and more remote targeting of "terrorists" will be conducted via airborne robots. (Hagel should get confirmed but pro-Israeli groups and politicians may lobby to block his confirmation.)

All of this continues to ignore our neighbors to the South. A long time, I heard a South American analyst lecture about Colombia. His conclusion was that the perceived exploitation of Central and South America by the US was the reason for the drug cartels success. Basically drugs were being produced by with the intent of destroying the US from within (this was back in 1988).

Back in the 1980s and early 1990s, cocaine was the main drug the Colombian/South American drug cartels smuggled into the US. At some point in the mid-90s, the cartels realized the market for cocaine was pretty much maxed-out, no room for increasing the market with new users. Thus was born the higher grade heroin that we see today. Heroin with a higher concentration could be snorted or smoked so cocaine users would be attracted to the new heroin (and not appear to be a junkie shooting up in an alley). Unfortunately for these new users, they discovered the real strategy of the cartels was to get users hooked.  Heroin is immediately addictive unlike cocaine.

Heroin is produced from poppies which aren't grown in Colombia so a new partnership was formed between South American cartels and Afghani poppy growers. The connection between cartels and Taliban leads many to speculate as to the real reason we are in Afghanistan. The new Secretary of State (Kerry) and Sec Def (Hagel most likely) will have to assess the consequences of keeping troops on the ground in that part of world.

China continues to build-up and improve its military capability which begs the question, why? Even if not for a direct confrontation with the US, Chinese technology will force the US to keep developing new weapon systems at a somewhat quicker rate than has happened in the past. Part of the reason the F-35 cost so much is its lengthy development time (plus coming up with three distinct variants to meet the needs of three different service components).

Speaking of the F-35, this is most likely the last manned fighter aircraft we will see. Drones and robots have advanced to the point that manned aircraft are actually a barrier. Flight characteristics are hampered by the need to keep the pilot from being squished to death in a high G-turn. Drones can now take-off, fly and return to base without human intervention. Drones can maintain extremely times on-station and the best part, they are much more affordable than the F-35. Ground forces are not to be outdone, robots now walk and look like men and pack animals. Meaning robots can handle rough terrain that wheeled vehicles cannot and again don't get tired (or want promotions or healthcare). 

Despite those advances, we still pretty much remain focused on fighting asymmetrical threats with symmetrical forces. Despite being at war for over a decade, we still are using much of the same tactics. 

It is unlikely that under the second Obama Administration much will change. There may be some increase tensions and perhaps some more air campaigns but in the end, nothing much is going to change.

Mohammed Merah

In that and other respects, he may fit the model of an Iron Man, a terrorist prototype and Salafi extremist who drives fast cars and motorbikes, enjoys the good life, is at ease with electronic gadgets and used a high tech video camera from a Formula One car to record his murderous rampage in high resolution for propaganda and posterity.

Mohammed Merah said he had trained in Afghanistan and Pakistan, both of which countries he visited in 2010 and 2011. A Kandahar prison official identified him as an al Qaeda bomber who was imprisoned for three years and escaped in a mass Taliban jailbreak in 2008, only to be rearrested and sent back to France
DEBKAfile

A new type of terrorist but really much of the same. An extremist who received training abroad only to return to country he originated from. He then enjoys his final months driving fast cars and presumably women and good food. He then commits murder and finally kills himself. How many more are already in France or here just waiting to start their rampage of violence?

FARC files 'show ties to Chavez'

Given all of the news about the Middle East, it is easy to forget about our neighbors to the south:

Colombian FARC guerrillas may have tried to assassinate rivals of Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela, and trained his supporters in urban warfare, according to a report examining documents seized from a rebel camp.

The study of the files, obtained during a 2008 raid inside Ecuador, also showed that the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) contributed some $400,000 to the election campaign of Rafael Correa, the president of Ecuador.



Most of the terrorist groups in Central and South American are Marxist and politically left. It is no stretch for FARC to be a supporter of Chavez. These terrorist groups are especially anti-American and may it beneficial to partner with al Qaeda or Hezbollah to attack American targets.

Al Jazeera English

On this day, we gave up our rights

The fear of terrorism has overruled our own jurisprudence. Our laws are supposed to be based around the concept of innocent until proven guilty but DHS has flipped the script. Passengers are now considered guilty until proven innocent.

Link

Iranians stage mass protest against 'Great Satan' US

First we had Medved visiting the Kurile Islands trying to stir-up nationalistic fervor about a long forgotten part of history. Now Iran wants to restart the old "US Satan" slogan from 30 years ago. In my class on terrorism, I teach the students how many groups create an appearance of legitimacy by evoking symbols from the past. Medved's visit links him back to the halcyon days of the Russian empire (minus all of that czarist crap) and now Iran wants to go back to the days when they held the US hostage for 444 days. Both of these cases demonstrate how despots refocus the attention of the masses on matters outside their borders. Juan Peron did the same thing with the Falklands, whipping up national frenzy in an attempt to divert attention from his disastrous (and vicious) domestic policies. He of course under-estimated Prime Minister Thatcher's resolve and who proceeded to thrash him. (Note: Thatcher was helped indirectly by Ronald Reagan who sold Argentina bomb fuses that would not set if dropped from low altitude).

The US has ceased combat operations in Iraq, while still keeping 60,000 troops in country. Other than getting rid of Saddam Hussein, the outcome of all of the deaths, money and resources spent is unclear. General Patreaus, as the latest commander of forces in Afghanistan, recently predicted it would take another 10-20 years to finish the job in Afghanistan. These two latest conflicts are part of an unimpressive track record for the US abroad. Vietnam, the Tehran embassy hostage situation, the Beirut bombings in 1983, Grenada, Somalia 1993, Haiti 1995, and Kosovo all demonstrate the inability of US military action to bring a decisive conclusion to the situation. Yes, I know there were many factors contributing to each of these events but the rest of the world is able to draw its own conclusion. The United States will eventually tire and call its troops home whether the mission is completed or not.

Link

More on full body scanners

The real point is how we've allowed the basic tenet of our legal system, innocent until proven guilt, to be obfuscated by the requirement for increased security. New technologies are employed with only a modicum of support (i.e. full body scanners will prevent liquid explosives from being smuggled on board)/ How many attempts have been made? (answer; only one so far, Abdulmutallab) The public was assured full body scanners were NOT invasive in what was actually viewed by the technicians. It was shortly after the fielding that it was learned knuckle-heads at LaGuardia were able to see female passengers most intimate parts. Furthermore, the system could archive the images. Yes there are terrorists out there who would like to attack Americans but their numbers are few and they are not hiding behind every corner. We must not forsake our civil and legal rights in response to some terrorist "boogeyman".

Pilot Refuses Full-Body Scan, Says TSA Doesn’t Make Travel Safer « CBS New York – News, Sports, Weather, Traffic and the Best of NY

Be very afraid

Hardly a month goes by without someone in authority reminding us to expect another attack imminently. I have lost count of statements from MI5, the police and other experts that an attack is a matter of "not if, but when". The attacks never occur, or are brilliantly thwarted, like the one reportedly prevented this week, apparently by dropping bombs from drones on Pakistani villages. What is noticeable is that the tempo of such threats increases immediately before Christmas and when the security lobby is involved in a fight over money, as now.

Be very afraid – we are being fleeced by purveyors of fear | Simon Jenkins | Comment is free | The Guardian

The actions of the few warrant abuse of the many

A few days ago, I was reading an article that was trying to figure out why more police officers are making the news for excessive force abuse such as tazzing grandmothers or young children. In a seemingly unrelated article, sheriffs in North Carolina are convinced the best way to get control of prescription drug abuse is to have access to everyone's medical records. The below article points out that this isn't a knee-jerk reaction but rather a policy the North Carolina sheriffs have been pursuing for many years.

The British police make the news on a disturbingly frequent basis for abuse. A recent article described how a 58 year old, 5'2" woman with no priors got the shit kicked out of her by a local constable. She looked like she went a round with a heavyweight boxer instead of having spent a night in jail.

What the heck is going on?

In the original "war on drugs", certain behaviors are demonized without regard to a look at the larger social implications. Marijuana users, growers or those in possession of the substance are subjected to mandatory sentencing. I don't hang around with potheads much but the few that I've met strike me as being some of the least violent people around. They seem to only want to smoke dope and munch on frozen burritos. Yet their marijuana habit will get them thrown into prison with hardcore sociopaths. Great, now we have more sociopaths.

The pressure for law enforcement to deal with the "war on drugs" created the mindset that any drug abuse is a serious crime. Potheads are treated no differently than a violent offender (rapists, bank robbers, murderers). The press feeds into this mindset by stirring the public into a lather because it sells copy. The public in-turn whips elected officials into a lather who then pressure law enforcement to take action. Our tradition of sound-byte politics only exacerbates the problem.

The "war on terror" created a similarly dysfunctional mindset. Everyone and everything is a potential threat to the homeland. The uncooperative little old lady or young kid with asthma could be a dangerous security threat. They need to be dealt with quickly and severely before others may be harmed.

The public gets whipped into a terrorism frenzy with repeated reports of terrorists, a potential war with Iran, illegal immigrants running amok in the streets, or radical Muslims plotting the next major attack against mom, apple pie and the American way. The constant bombardment of these images has a profound effect on our collective psyche.

Despite all of the increased security measures implemented since 9/11, everyone seems more tense instead of more at ease. A whole new federal agency (DHS) was created to make sure we stay safe yet citizens seem more afraid of the DHS policies than of the next terrorist attack. Arizona is having serious issues with illegal immigrants and for all of their concerns, the federal government is suing the state of Arizona.

Police are at the end of the day no different than the rest of us. They go home to their families and watch TV, listen to the radio or read the newspapers or Internet. They are not immune to the media bombardment of potential terrorists, disgruntled employees, angry youth, and illegal aliens. Unlike the rest of us they are in a position to do something about it.

Let a citizen start arguing with a cop and these days that can rapidly escalate into a confrontation. The cop is trying to deal with the situation, the stress of the job, the crowd that has now surrounded them, and all of the camera phones recording every nuance. Most of the time the cops can control the situation without it escalating out of control. But when it does, it is captured on video and sent out via Facebook and Twitter to the world.

Along with this comes the hype of "non-lethal" weapons. The term should be less lethal. If you hit a person with 50,000 volts, you run the risk of putting the person into defibrillation. Dog pile a suspect with a heart condition or that has been maced and you run the risk of heart attack. I've seen demonstrations of spray foams and netting that can be shot out of pneumatic guns akin to something Batman would have. The foam hardens immediately preventing the suspect from moving. However, if you hit the suspect in the face the hardening foam will suffocate them. The cool looking netting can strangle the suspect. Fortunately, I have not seen these Batman devices deployed (yet).

The police departments have bought into the notion that these things are truly non-lethal, at least until the suspect expires. Police officers forget about little things like adrenalin and oxygen. Chase a suspect and their body floods with adrenalin and is depleting oxygen. Now hit them with that stun-gun or spray them with mace. The suspect has difficulty breathing and their hearts starts going into overdrive. Now dogpile them when they don't respond to the officer's orders. Oops, you just made the headlines.

The military is fielding newr "non-lethal" technology that uses directed energy to super heat the outer layer of skin. Demonstrations show that there is no damage but the target feels like they are on fire. Of course what doesn't get reported is that just a little too much energy and now internal organs can be destroyed. There are also sonic devices that can cause disorientation by disrupting the inner ear function. There is interest by metropolitan police departments in such technology for crowd control or riot control in prisons. The police buy into the non-lethal hype and seem to ignore the horrifying effects (albeit short-term) the targets are suffering.

Society on the whole seems to want increasingly sensational headlines and the media, looking for profits in declining market, are only to happy to cooperate. Who cares about another oil rig failing in the Gulf when you can follow one moron down in Florida and whether he will burn Qurans. Look at the local news, you will be hard pressed not to feel all of your neighbors are criminals and are on drugs.

None of this should mean we should lose more of our rights and privileges in order to be safer from an unknown and unseen threat.

Sheriffs want lists of patients using painkillers - Crime/Safety - NewsObserver.com

Secret Assault on Terrorism

During the Vietnam war, the United States forces were engaged in the jungles of Laos and Cambodia conducting covert military operations. These operations were supposed to help defeat Communist forces but had the opposite effect in emboldening the Viet Cong. Now it appears the Obama Administration is running down a similar rabbit hole in Yemen. As US forces discovered chasing Communists in the jungles 40 years ago, it is difficult to identify members of Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is proving to be the 21st Century version of Communism, the group has a much larger reputation than its actual membership would indicate. Much like the Communists, instead of getting weaker Al Qaeda seems to be getting stronger and more far flung as we approach the tenth year of the war on terrorism. The New Your Times story is disturbing in how much is going on that isn't being reported. It is also disturbing to realize the Xe (formerly Blackwater) continues to receive contracts providing private military forces.

Secret Assault on Terrorism Widens on Two Continents - NYTimes.com

American flag shirts ignite firestorm

Abdulmutallab will forever be remembered as the underwear bomber. He will also be remembered for re-igniting fears of terrorist attacks involving airliners. He was also the first terrorist to make the news as we entered the second decade of the 21st Century.

Last month, members of the Hutaree, who define themselves as a Christian survival group, made the news when they allegedly threatening a Muslim. The federal government immediately seized their weapons echoing earlier incidents at Ruby Ridge and Waco.

New York City got back into the news when a Pakistani built a bomb out of pyrotechnics and attempted to detonate it in Times Square. The bomb was called "amateurish" but it effectively got the citizens of New York to think about their own mortality (at least for a while)

Another bomb scare on a bus in New Hampshire followed however reports thus far have ruled out another terrorist attack.

As though we needed yet another reason to fear one another, Live Oak students decided to get into the picture. Hispanic students at the school got mad because non-Hispanic students wore American Flags on Cinco de Mayo. The Hispanic students felt this was insulting on their holiday and that the non-Hispanic students had no right to wear the American flag on that particular day (less this escape your notice, Live Oaks is a school in California which I last checked was still part of the United States).

Cinco de Mayo celebrates the Mexican army's victory over the French at the Battle of Puebla on May 5, 1862. It has become a day to celebrate Mexican pride, however it is NOT a celebration of Mexico's independence. Mexico's Independence Day is Sep 16th (Grito de Dolores). Personally I think Cinco de Mayo has become a commercialized excuse to market Tex-Mex food and alcoholic beverages.

Given that Cinco de Mayo celebrates a battle unfamiliar to most non-Mexicans, I'm not certain how wearing the American flag was disrespectful. Certainly the French flag would have historical significance but the American flag? Regardless, we now have yet another reason for people from two different cultures to find fault with one another rather than commonality.

Mexico won its independence from Spain and the United States won its independence from Britain. What's next? Students from Mexico or of Mexican heritage running around with Mexican flags on during the 4th of July? Stupidity is a universal commodity that knows no boundaries. I am sure there are groups already whipping themselves up into a frenzy over this issue and you will see some stupid shit come July.

I am very concerned that people's attention spans are so short they can be drawn into action without fully understanding what all of the fuss is about.


GilroyDispatch.com | American flag shirts ignite firestorm

Posted using ShareThis

TSA nominee withdraws amid

I was never convinced the answer to 9-11 was to create another bureaucracy. The recent attempt by Abdul Muttallab to board a Northwestern flight bound for Detroit with liquid explosives further dispproves a bureaucratic solution to terrorism.

TSA nominee withdraws amid 'political agenda'

Posted using ShareThis

Illinois Prison to Get Some Gitmo Detainees

Newsmax - Illinois Prison to Get Some Gitmo Detainees


Posted using ShareThis

The British Government ran into problems with the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) when the government rounded up all suspected terrorists and put them in the Maze outside of Belfast. Terrorists and non-terrorists were concentrated at the prison. The terrorists were able to recruit and train from these supporters. Instead of reducing the presence of the PIRA, the Maze actually increased the number of members and activities of the terrorist groups. The Bush Administration started to repeat this mistake with Gitmo. Now the Obama Administration is about to make it worse by taking suspect from outside the United States and putting them into our penal system. Either these individuals will recruit American prisoners to their cause or the prisoners will recruit these individuals to their gangs. In either way, terrorism will not be stopped but most likely increased.

George Pataki: Obama is Jeopardizing U.S. Security

George Pataki: Obama is Jeopardizing U.S. Security

Posted using ShareThis

We are taught over and over in military history and the war college; don't fight the last war again. The next attack won't involve airliners and may or may not involve foreign terrorists. The Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 was committed by domestic terrorists. Pataki's comments assume only foreign terrorists pose a threat. There are many dissatisfied, homegrown terrorists that given the means, motive and opportunity would attack. What Pataki should criticize Presidnent Obama about is his selection of DHS Secretary Napolitano whose focus is substitutes the war on terror for the war on drugs. Diverting our intelligence and law enforcement resources to another war on drugs show little promise of making the homeland safe.

Pam Am Flight 103 and today

Today marked the 20th anniversary of Pam Am Flight 103 that crashed at Lockerbie, Scotland killing everyone on board plus 11 people on the ground. It was still uncommon for hijackers at the time to kill hostages. The bombing of Pam Am Flight 103 started to change they way intelligence analysts and law enforcement personnel began to look at terrorist groups. It was so unexpected that most agencies did not realize what had happened. Former Libyan intelligence officer Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed Al Megrahi was found guilty of mass murder following a trial at Camp Zeist in the Netherlands in 2001.

The events over Lockerbie make it seem even more incredible that American Airlines Flight 11 (which crashed into the North Tower), United Airlines Flight 175 (which crashed into the South Tower) and American Airlines Flight 77 (which crashed into the Pentagon) could all simultaneously be seized and used as weapons. From most accounts, United Airlines Flight 93 crashed into the Pennsylvania countryside as a result of the passengers fighting back.

Times are becoming very interesting. The attacks in Mumbai serve as a reminder that not all attacks have to come in the form of airliners. The Bush Administration is in its last 30 days in office and the Obama Administration takes over in the midst of one of the worst economies ever. The Big Three automakers were bailed out because they are too big to fail. In a global economy, the effects of the Big Three aren’t limited to the USA but to companies throughout the world. How many other groups will launch attacks in retaliation for the perceived economic impact to their countries caused by the failing American auto industry?

Ohio Governor Ted Stickland just announced a $640 million dollar cut to this year’s budget. Layoffs, furloughs and hiring freezes to public safety agencies will mean a reduced response capability in addition to the individual economic hardships facing those effected by the proposed cuts. More and more people are losing their jobs and their homes creating a desperate situation for some potentially leading to increased crime and violence.

The increased stress of losing one’s job will lead to increased health problems. The sale of nutritional supplements has increased as people try to cope with the increased stress of life under such circumstances. As people lose health care insurance, more uninsured emergency patients will be seen at hospitals. More EMS runs will occur responding to medical emergencies brought on by people running out of their prescription medication. Increased EMS runs will further depleted dwindling municipal budgets and with increased unemployment, local governments will not be able to generate the necessary tax revenue.

As though this isn’t enough, I just saw a trailer for a movie entitled “2012”. The Mayan calendar ends in 2012 and some believe this indicates an end of times. The economy may be seen as further proof of these beliefs and could create a wide scale panic even more pronounced than that experienced during the Y2K scare.