Spy planes, civilian airlines and mass shootings

The following headline caught my eye the other day; "Spy Plane Fries Air Traffic Control Computers, Shuts Down LAX".  According to the article, a U-2 altitude (60,000 feet or higher) and route overloaded En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM) which is designed to allow faster processing of route requests and in-flight changes.  The ERAM kept interpreting the U-2 flight path as on a collision course with other aircraft, even though the vertical separation (altitude) between the U-2 and other aircraft in the vicinity was several miles.  I find the explanation to be only partially believable.

While I have no doubt the U-2 overloaded the ERAM, I believe it had more to do with the electronics on-board the spy plane then it did simply with its route.  U-2s have been in operation for over 50 years and has been around since at least 2009.  This can't be the first time a U-2 has flown through congested airspace, albeit several miles above it.  I suspect the U-2 had either some sensors or jammers that prematurely came on which were responsible for the computer crash.  The systems are all programmed on the ground, the pilot is merely along for the ride so he would not have had any way of turning the systems on or off.

Back in the early 90s, our radar unit was in a major exercise in Europe.  An EC-111 (Raven) was on-station and started to jam our radar (which puked out 100,000 watts of R/F energy).  We were able to manually switched frequencies to defeat the jamming UNTIL the back-seater got tired of our shit and turned up the energy of his jammer.  He shut us down in a heartbeat and friend some of our equipment.  The point of this story was at least 20 years ago, military aircraft had the ability to shut-down ground based radar (even military ones with frequency hopping capability).  A modern day FAA civilian radar would have no chance against a U-2 if it was switched on at the wrong time.

Most civilians outside electrical engineers and physicists have no idea how much energy electronic jammers, radars and even HF radios produce.  All of these are capable, with enough power and range, to bring down aircraft.  I still am of the opinion the Flight 370 was hit by some kind of R/F weapon.  Perhaps the pilot was planning to divert and land somewhere.  His route may have crossed into protected airspace and a R/F weapon was used on it.  I am reading now where supposedly Al Qaeda terrorists were on board.  Perhaps they had something to do with it or perhaps they were merely passengers.  Terrorist using an aircraft as a weapon again will take some time.  Everyone is looking for that so the next major attack will involve something else.

Something else could be the ability to "turn" our own people against us.  The news is reporting more and more shootings, stabbings and attempted bombings at schools.  According to the Liberty Crier, nearly every mass shooting in the past 20 years was committed by people on psychotropic drugs (article).  Most of these drugs are prescribed to prevent certain behaviors but those prescribing often don't know all of the side effects.  What if the drugs allow one to be more easily programmed via mass media (TV, Internet, video games, etc)?  It would keep our focus off of external threats while keeping us focused on internal threats.  Remember, propaganda encompasses all forms of communication to change attitudes and behaviors.  We tend to think of wartime posters and Voice of America when propaganda is actually more psychological warfare.  When you consider propaganda in that manner, it becomes harder to dismiss the use of mass media by outside forces as a way of turning our own people against us.

In these three examples, the headlines are only part of the story.  The 24 hour news cycle is making impossible to stay focused on one story before the next major headline hits.  Syria and Ukraine are still tearing themselves up but the news has already moved on to the next headline.

Thoughts on Ukraine, the US officer corps, and Nevada

In May 2008, Russia invades Georgia.  The large, unwieldy Soviet style command and control of the Russian Army proved disastrous.  Russian troops were antiquated and ill-equipped for warfare in the 21st Century.  Mr. Putin spent the next  years changing the Russian army from its Cold War era posture to a lean, modern fighting force that quickly retook the Crimea.  Reports now are coming in that Russian troops in the Ukraine are wearing state-of-the-art body armor.  The armor is believed to have titanium and hard carbide boron ceramic chest and back plates.  If correct, these plates can deflect 5.56mm NATO round and means the Ukraine rifles won't be very effective.  Even the Russian grenade launchers and helmets have take such an order of magnitude leap that a former US general was quoted as saying, "The body armor is better than our body armor. They’re doing a lot of things right. I’m pretty amazed at it.”--Washington Times

As a result, Mr. Obama's foreign policy failures continue to mount.  Mr. Putin has thus far been unpersuaded by threats of isolating Russian on the world market.  Reclaiming Crimea, which was turned over by Khrushchev, is imperative in Mr. Putin's mind to reclaiming Russia's spot as a world power.  Thus far, he has achieved his goal and seems hellbent on keeping it.  In contrast, Mr. Obama's failed foreign policy continues with the assignment of the Ukraine situation falling to elder "statesman" VP Joe Biden.  Kerry out, Biden in and how did the vice president handle this passing of the torch?  By saying upon his arrival in the Ukraine, "Thank you for making me feel relevant again!" (Weekly Standard).  Mr. Biden, this is not about you or your lack of relevance, it's about preventing a potential war.

The state of the US military has to be emboldening Russia.  While Mr. Putin has increased spending over the last 6 years, Mr. Obama first imposed sequestration across the Department of Defense.  While wartime spending needed to be brought under control. the sequestration was a heavy-handed approach that has threatened modernization and has all of the Joint Chiefs scrambling to maintain relevancy.

It is against the backdrop of these events that I read with interest an article by William Lind in the American Conservative, "An Officer Corps That Can't Score".  In it, Lind sees the officer corps has become the land of careerists who seek to reinforce one another's beliefs without challenging the status quo.  He believes, and I agree, the officers are no longer learned professionals who read and study serious military history.  He also feels that there are just too many officers who are in-turn augmented by contractors (who are mostly just retired officers themselves).

The pathologies that flow from this are endless. Command tours are too short to accomplish anything, usually about 18 months, because behind each commander is a long line of fellow officers eagerly awaiting their lick at the ice-cream cone. Decisions are pulled up the chain because the chain is laden with surplus officers looking for something to do. Decisions are committee-consensus, lowest common denominator, which Boyd warned is usually the worst of all possible alternatives. Nothing can be changed or reformed because of the vast number of players defending their “rice bowls.” The only measurable product is entropy. 

 The second and third structural failings are related because both work to undermine moral courage and character, which the Prussian army defined as “eagerness to make decisions and take responsibility.” They are the “up or out” promotion system and “all or nothing” vesting for retirement at 20 years. “Up or out” means an officer must constantly curry favor for promotion because if he is not steadily promoted he must leave the service. “All or nothing” says that if “up or out” pushes him out before he has served 20 years, he leaves with no pension. (Most American officers are married with children.)--The American Conservative

The USAF is accused of being more of a corporation than a military organization at times so I tend to agree more with Lind than if I had been say in the Marine Corps.  Nonetheless, his observations are timely for a military that was for so long trained to fight the Soviet Union, only now to become engaged in a conflict with Russia that it is no longer able to contain.

When one lacks a curious mind, you become locked into reactive state without regard to causes or consequences.  In war, this means you lose.  In the civilian world, it's how over a month after the disappearance of Flight 370 no wreckage has been found.  It had to have crashed, no pilot would have dropped below radar coverage and landed somewhere?  It couldn't have crashed, otherwise our satellites and other systems would have detected the wreckage?  The truth is probably going to be a combination of the pilot intentionally avoiding detection and landing/crashing on an island somewhere.

Of course another, more sinister option brings us back to Russia.  What if there was a way to take over the controls of an aircraft and divert it somewhere or outright destroy it without leaving a trace?  It might just be enough incentive to convince and already iffy US President to stay home and mind his own business.

Speaking of which, apparently US federal agents aren't required to read history books either.  Attempting to takeover a Nevada ranch eerily resembled the Branch Davidian compound from 1995 yet they expected US citizens not to react?  Wisely they were pulled back (is Mr. Obama also failing on his domestic policies?).  I don't think the situation is over in Nevada but I also don't thinks this administration can handle both a domestic and international crisis at the same time.

The Strange Case of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370

By now, pretty much everyone who reads the Internet or watches the news has heard about this incident. But for those who may not or for future reference, here are what details we know about the flight prior to its disappearance.

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 headed to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur, locally at 12:41 am Saturday (Friday afternoon ET), March 8, 2014, air traffic controllers in Subang, outside Kuala Lumpur, lost contact with the Boeing 777 plane over the Gulf of Thailand between Malaysia and Vietnam, 90 nautical miles northeast of Kota Bharu, Malaysia. Malaysia Airlines’ Boeing 777 asset was last tracked at 1722 Zulu (1:22 am local), when it disappeared from radar contact.  I've marked the approximate area on the map below.

The only other factor we know for sure is the aircraft attempted to "turnaround".  It is unclear if this means a full 180 degree turn back to its point of origin or if it was a more abrupt 90 degree turn indicating a loss of altitude (and the turn is an attempt to avoid other aircraft in the route).

The first point many articles fail to point out is that aircraft operating under IFR aren't truly tracked by radar as in the beam reflected off of the skin of the aircraft, but rather but the transponder signal received by the radar antenna.  It is the reason why the final location of the aircraft is alluding authorities.  Once the transponder was turned off or destroyed, FL 370 disappeared from air traffic control radars.  Any AWACS in the area would have been able to still track it as military radars look at both skin reflection as well as transponders.

The second point is the black box (which is actually a bright color such as red or orange so you can find it) emits a locating signal but that signal is very weak.  The signal is only good for several thousand yards and that assumes it isn't underwater.

The third point is why didn't Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 squawk either "7500" for hijacking or "7700" for emergency?  If the disappearance was due to some type of hijacking or terrorist incident, then the pilot and co-pilots may have been overwhelmed or killed before they could react.  If not then a terrorist or hijacking, then there is the possibility something in the environment effected the crew before they could enter the transponder code.  If oxygen levels slowly dropped, reaction times for the pilots may have prevented them from acting accordingly.  

The fourth is the lack of debris.  If Flight 370 exploded in mid-flight or crashed into the ocean, there should be signs of debris floating in the ocean.  Seat cushions, life vests and baggage should be visible on the surface.  Some speculate this is a sign that is was diverted and forced to land somewhere.  This seems unlikely as it is damn hard to find land strips long enough for a Boeing 777 much less keep witnesses from seeing it.  The only explanation that makes sense right now is that searchers aren't looking in the right place.

The Boeing 777 has operated for nearly 20 years with an impeccable record so it seems unlikely that the disappearance of Flight 370 is related to some type of mechanical failure.  It is also unlikely that a missile was used to bring down the aircraft.  Missiles leave smoke trails and radar signatures that would have been seen.  

The majority of passengers on this flight were Chinese with 154 citizens. Additionally, 38 Malaysians, 7 Indonesians, 6 Australians, 5 Indian, 4 French, 3 Americans, 2 New Zealanders, 2 Canadians, 1 Austrian, 1 Dutch, 1 Italian, and 1 Russian were reported to be aboard.  Based on this, a motivation for a terrorist to target this flight seems unlikely.  There are numerous reports of passengers using bogus passports.  While certainly suspicious, one has to wonder how many other flights have passengers using bogus identities?  Of these, how many result in an aircraft disappearing?

The turn would indicate the pilots suspected something but since they did not radio anything, it would support a scenario involving a hijacker.  But if hijacked, why blow up the aircraft over the ocean once you already have control of it? 

I suspect we may find out a new type of attack was used.  Some type of either cyber or advanced weaponry.  A cyber attack could have be launched against the Boeing's on-board systems rendering the pilots unable to control the aircraft or radio for help.  It is not outside the realm of possibility especially if one of the people carrying a fake passport were involved.  Flying over the ocean, the aircraft could have been hit with some type of advanced weapon from a ship or satellite that knocked out its navigation systems and radios.  If I'm right, governments and militaries would be extremely reluctant for this information to get out.  It would mean that any civilian airliner could be targeted (and potential even military aircraft).

What is most disconcerting to me is the timing.  This happened right after Russia's move into the Crimea.  It seems to me like someone (and not necessarily the Russians) wants to keep the world off balance.

UPDATE:  The Chinese government has released satellite images which may show debris from missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.  The photos, found on the website for the Chinese State Administration for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (SASTIND), show what appears to be a floating object in the South China Sea, according to CNN.--Raycom Media Network