Showing posts with label Crimea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crimea. Show all posts

Thursday, May 15, 2014

The Alliance is fracturing

In response to the situation in Nigeria, the Obama administration has sent 16 Special Forces troops (my guess?  Green Berets since they are there to "advise and train") plus they are going to use drones to help locate the missing school girls.  I fear its too little and too late.

"In recent days, the world has watched in horror as the Nigerian terror group Boko Haram kidnapped more than 250 schoolgirls and threatened to sell them into slavery. The U.S. military has discreetly sent aircraft over Nigeria, and dispatched 16 troops to the country, to try to find the girls."  Time

Hardly a response at all in Nigeria.  In the meantime, US/European solidarity in criticizing Russia's annexation of Crimea is beginning to show signs of fractures.

Exhibit A:  Two weeks ago, three Russian navy ships - the 6,900-tonne destroyer Vice Admiral Kulakov and tankers Duban and Sergey Osipov - docked at Ceuta, less than 50miles across the Mediterranean from Gibraltar.  Spain is a NATO member nation which implies a support against the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine.  However, Spain has had a beef with the UK using the straights of Gibraltar which the British have controlled since 1713.  Old rivalries die hard.  (Read more here)

Exhibit B:  France (which is not a NATO member) is proceeding with the sale of two military ships to Russia despite the US calling the sale "ill-advised". "To critics, the 1.2 billion euro, or more than $1.6 billion, deal that France struck with Russia has emerged as a classic instance in which a European nation has elevated its business dealings with Moscow over exhortations by the United States to take a firm line on Russian meddling in Ukraine."  N.Y. Times

Exhibit C:  The Spanish and French aren't the only ones who are letting money compromise their resiliency.  Apparently, the US (which is a big NATO member) is interested on only enforcing certain sanctions against Russia.  "The U.S. State Department has issued shipping licenses for two commercial telecommunications satellites preparing for launch this year aboard Russian Proton rockets from Russia’s Baikonur Cosmodrome, industry officials said." Space News

What happened to the great NATO alliance?

After Word War II, Europe was divided between west and east.  The West of course were the free European countries, the East were occupied by the Soviet Union.  To prevent further western advancement by the Soviet Union, NATO was created.  It could never really stop the Soviet Union, mainly delay it until the US could mobilize all of its forces.  When the Soviet Union fell, NATO's future began to get questioned.  NATO found a new role in the war on terror running things in Afghanistan as well as directing the air campaign over Libya during the Arab Spring.  However, these actions made it even more apparent that a self-proteciont alliance had probably outlived its usefulness.

Most of the NATO member nations are spending less and less on their militaries.  In the meantime, Russia has increased its spending and is now more on parity with NATO then it has been in years.

Europe is also facing a financial crisis that the European Union has exacerbated rather than solve.  The US is no longer seen as the financial superpower that can help Europe so more countries are turning to Russia and China.  Like the old European courts, today's governments may say one thing but are busy doing quite the opposite.  In this case, public support for economic sanctions against Russia while privately cutting deals to make money.  No wonder Putin looks so smug!

According to an article in the Moscow Times, "A number of European countries are heavily dependent on Russia for their energy needs, and others simply want to continue business-as-usual and not let the events in Ukraine get in the way of making profits." Moscow Times   Which is exactly why the call for crippling sanctions in the same article is not going to happen.

Firs Syria, then Crimea and now Nigeria.  Where happened?

Mark Thompson of Time wrote, "In recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has unilaterally redrawn Europe’s post-World War II borders by snatching Crimea from Ukraine. Since that deft move, he has acted as a Slavic Geppetto in eastern Ukraine, sowing enough discord in the former Soviet state to keep it off balance, unable to puncture Moscow’s sphere of influence. Beyond dispatching small, tripwire forces to nearby NATO nations, the U.S. military has remained at parade rest."  

Many say after 10 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, Americans are tired and don't want to get involved anymore.  I doubt that is the case since the American public was never asked to sacrifice anything during the war.  A more likely answer can be found in this quote from President Obama, “Why is it that everybody is so eager to use military force after we’ve just gone through a decade of war at enormous costs to our troops and to our budget?” (Time)  If he truly believes that, then why did he declare the use of chemical weapons in Syria to be a "red line" and then proceeded to do nothing about it?  The President appears afraid to confront anyone, especially Putin, and tries to use rhetoric about budgets to disguise his fears.

Not to be outdone, General Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was quoted as saying, "As I look forward and think about the need to rebalance the use of military power, I think we will need less direct action because it is the most costly, disruptive and controversial use of American power,” (Time)  That might sound better if Russia didn't just place 40,000 troops into Crimea while the President sat and watched.  And not to diminish one iota the plight of the Nigerian school children but President Asad has massacred 150,000 people since he crossed Mr. Obama's "red line" and suffered not a scratch.

The United States is rapidly turning into an isolationist state once again.  The US did not want to get involved in either World War I or World War II.  The public want the US to stay out.  Both times, isolationist policies prevented the US from becoming involved until it was almost too late.  In neither case did the US suffer any casualties on the homeland (remember Hawaii was not part of the United States when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor).  The short term decision not to become involved in Syria or Crimea may be expedient to the current White House but what about long-term?  Will the next administration but forced into a conflict because we appear not to be willing to do so today?


Monday, March 10, 2014

Russia continues its Crimean campaign

All it took was one Malaysian airliner to disappear to shift American news media away from Crimea.  It certainly looks suspicious, however it can just as easily be some type of catastrophic design failure.  Regardless, more headlines are pouring out speculation on this rather than looking at all of the nasty options Mr. Putin has set into motion over he the weekend.

A little review is in order to properly set the magnitude of how much the United States does not understand Russia and Mr. Putin.

The “reset” with Russia had a brief, unhappy life. It began with then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton presenting her Russian counterpart with a mistranslated reset button reading “overcharged.” It ended with current Secretary of State John Kerry denying knowledge of the late, unlamented policy on “Meet the Press”: “Well, I don’t know what you mean by the reset.”-- Rich Lowry, New York Post 

Former Secretary of State (and 2016 Democratic Presidential hopeful) Hillary Clinton and President Obama crafted the notion of a "reset" for relations with Russia.  As we are now reminded, Russian may not be the former Soviet Union anymore but Mr. Putin's approach is not the much different from the Cold War days.

To protect Russian interests, he sent troops to Crimea when it looked like Ukraine would align with the EU.  The United States and Western Europe protested, with Mr. Obama coming out looking like a rank amateur going against a world-class heavyweight champ.

Mr. Obama looks weakest whenever he makes threats.  No one takes them seriously and to someone like Mr. Putin, it just stokes his ego.  Towards the end of last week, Mr. Obama threatened Russia with economic sanctions if he did anything.  Over the weekend, Mr Putin did the following;

1.Putin mocks the West and threatens to turn off gas supplies.  Rather than have direct talks with the new government in Kiev, Mr. Putin would take away Europe's cheap source of natural gas.  The Ukraine is one of the main transit routes for Russian gas and much of Europe depends heavily on the flow of natural gas.  Even though temps are warming up, a cut-off would adversely effect the European economy.--Telegraph

2.Russian troops storm military post in Crimea as U.S. sends warship to the Black Sea after talks between Obama and Putin break down  Russian troops stormed a Crimean command center in an act that seems to be in retaliation for the deployment of the US Destroyer Truxtun to the Black Sea.  While Washington is claiming this is just part of a routine exercise, Moscow claims this act escalates tensions.  There are now 30,000 Russian troops on the ground compared to a normal end-strength of around 11,000.--Daily Mail

3. Russia May Halt US Inspections Over Sanctions  Moscow sees the U.S. move as a reason to suspend U.S. inspections in Russia in line with the 2010 New START treaty on cutting U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals.--Associated Press

4.  Ukraine leaders vow not to cede land; Russia tightens grip on Crimea  Leaders of Ukraine vowed Sunday not to cede any part of their nation’s territory, even as Russia defended its virtual takeover of the disputed Crimean peninsula and signaled its willingness to act on the result of an upcoming secession vote there. LA Times

Besides the deployment of the USS Truxtun, the US has quietly deployed more assets into the region.

1.  USAF To Increase Military Presence in Lithuania, Poland Six F-15C Eagle fighter jets were deployed to the Lithuanian Air Force base in Siauliai, in the country’s north, Thursday, Lithuania’s Defense Ministry said in a statement.  On a related note, 12 F-16 fighter jets and 300 US troops are to be deployed to Poland March 10-11, Polish Defense Minister Tomasz Siemoniak said. The fighter jets will arrive at the military base in Lask, in central Poland.--Defense News

One has to wonder how the Russians how the Russians did it.  Military historians will tell you that the Soviet era military was large, ponderously large.  It would take forever to get somewhere but once it did it would utilize its huge mass to overwhelm the enemy (unless it happens to be some pesky Afghanis).

Under Mr.Putin, two things happened.  One was his unwavering passion to ascend Russia to its rightful place as the major world power.  Second was his vision that the old Soviet military model was not nimble and would not work in a 21st Century battlefield of rapid strikes.  Instead of the lumbering military that was ripe for committing fratricide during the invasion of Georgia in 2008, the forces in Crimea in 2014 are much more like US Rangers.  Contracted professionals, no draftees, and many of the troops are from the FSB (modern day KGB).  It is a lean force designed for rapid deployment but lacks the depth and heavy armor for prolonged war with a major power.  The Ukraine does not pose that type of challenge.  (see Putin has transformed Russian army into a lean, mean fighting machine).

Many are speculating that Russia's economy cannot sustain these expeditionary forces.  I suspect these estimates are optimistic.  Russian people are used to a much more austere lifestyle than the West.  Mr. Putin has sustained relationships with Syria, Iran and China that will be more than willing to pay for Russian expertise in nuclear technology.  Even the threat of European sanctions rings hollow.  The EU is having a hard enough time keeping its members in line.  The threat of gas prices shooting up will hurt them more in the short-run than Russian.

Mr. Putin has figured he can ignore Washington for another two years at least.  In the meantime, if he regains control of Crimea he also insures Russia's dominance in the Black Sea.



Friday, March 7, 2014

Crimea, Russia and the US since we last checked-in

World War III has not started and Russia seems content with holding their troops in position.  While all seems quite on the Crimean front, back home thinks have started to become quarrelsome to say the least.

Item:  House Intelligence Chair Mike Rogers (R-MI) summed the Ukraine crisis by saying “Putin is playing chess, and I think we’re playing marbles.” --Fox News

Item: Rep. Howard P. “Buck” McKeon (R-CA), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee made the following statement upon receipt of the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) for 2014, "Unfortunately, the product the process produced this time has more to do with politics than policy and is of little value to decision makers. For that reason, I will require the Department to re-write and re-submit a compliant report. In defiance of the law, this QDR provides no insight into what a moderate-to-low risk strategy would be, is clearly budget driven, and is shortsighted. It allows the President to duck the consequences of the deep defense cuts he has advocated and leaves us all wondering what the true future costs of those cuts will be."--Armed Services Committee

Item:  On Thursday President Obama orders sanctions in response to Russia's actions.  European allies are uncertain how far they are willing to support Mr. Obama (something to do with wanting to keep the flow of Russian oil, maybe?).  Immediately Mr. Obama follows this stern action with a phone call to Mr. Putin saying there was still a way to resolve this diplomatically (even though all other options are off the table anyway).  Further, the President thinks this stance is strong enough that he is still demands that Russia recognize the legitimacy of Ukraine (not bloody likely!).--Daily Mail

Item:  In the "I'm desperate enough to try anything" category, a Pentagon research team is studying the body language of Vladmir Putin.  "U.S. policymakers are seeking any advantage they can find as they try to anticipate Putin, who in the past week has ordered Russian troops into neighboring Ukraine and laid claim to the Crimea Peninsula. "--USA Today  I must be missing something here.  Putin has told everyone his goals (protect Russian interests) and has moved his troops into position to insure that goal is achieved.  This is not a poker game, we know what he wants and how he intends to do it.  I wonder if Mr. Putin has a research team studying our President's body language?

Meanwhile, things abroad have become more interesting.

Item:  Ukrainian President Yanukovych is in a Moscow hospital after a heat attack, listed in grave condition (no worries of testimony from that person!).--Daily Mail

Item:  The USS Truxtun, a US Navy guided-missile destroyer, passed through the Çanakkale Strait en route to the Black Sea on Friday for what the US Navy described as a "routine" deployment that was scheduled well before the crisis in Ukraine (no coincidence here or why not cancel the maneuvers?).--Today's Zaman

Item:  Leaders of both houses of Russia’s Parliament said on Friday that they would support a vote by Crimea to break away from Ukraine and become a new region of the Russian Federation, the first public signal that the Kremlin was backing the secessionist move that Ukraine, the United States and other countries have denounced as a violation of international law.--NY Times

Putin is in charge of this game.  Mr. Obama's only hope is if he has the guts to get Russia kicked off the G8.  Short of that, and given his stance against any military action, the sanctions aren't going to have any short term effect on Russia.


Monday, March 3, 2014

Crimea

There is a reason why Putin may have already won and not have to start shooting up the Ukraine.  Russia has always been after one thing; access to the Black Sea.  The following timeline helps you see the back and forth one the last 160 years.



Crimean Timeline

1853-1856 Crimean War:  Russia on one side versus the British, French and Ottomans on the other.  Everyone wanted to control the Black Sea.  

1921-Soviet Union (following the Russian revolution) takes over.

1941-WWII and Nazi Germany takes over

1944-Soviets take control again.  As punishment for allegedly conspiring with the Nazis, Joseph Stalin exiles Turkish Tartars to Central Asia.  Over 46% percent of those exiled died along the way from disease and hunger.

1954-By decree from Khrushchev, Crimea is placed under Ukraine control.  The exiled Tartars are allowed to return but find their homes and lands gone.

1991-Fall of the Soviet Union sees an the creation of an independent Ukraine.

1994-Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to give up its share of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, in return for solemn pledges regarding its security.

2014-Crimea seized by Russian troops.  Russia 1, West 0