Moving the Embassy

As the country breathes a sigh of relief over the loss of Roy Moore, the collective consciousness of the American public has already forgotten about Mr. Trump's decision to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Mr. Trump was able to do this without any prior notice thanks to the Jerusalem Embassy Act which was passed in 1995.  It more or less authorized the acquisition of buildings and materials necessary to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the capitol of Israel according to the Israelis but not recognized by the majority of countries. 

Clinton, Bush and Obama all avoided implementing the Jerusalem Embassy Act.  Perhaps all three saw little to be gained by unilaterally declaring Jerusalem as the undivided capitol of Israel, something the Palestinians and most Middle Eastern countries disagree with.

Mr. Trump, as far as I can tell, did not implement his decision on any foreign policy or national security basis.  Instead, he needed a victory back home to after failing to repeal Obamacare and lack of progress on tax reform.  It was essentially a middle finger to the Republicans and a reminder to the Trump-faithful that he was still shaking things up.

Most foreign policy experts predicted outbreaks of violence in the Middle East which have occurred but the real issue is US has now seemingly allied itself with Israel to the exclusion (and perhaps detriment) to it is relationship with the rest of the Middle East.

It was this type of thing that resulted in the 1973 Energy Crisis.  For those too young to remember, the US provided arms and support to Israel during the Yom Kippur War.  In retaliation, OPEC proclaimed and oil embargo.  The price of oil shot up from $3 to $12 a barrel.  Lines at gas stations wrapped around for blocks as people waited for gas.

Something like that could happen as well as an increase in further terrorist attacks.  One lone bomber detonated a pipe bomb in New York city, fortunately injuring mainly himself.  The United Kingdom is bracing for more terrorist attacks as well.

Hardcore Trump fans feel moving the embassy was long overdue.  I'm not persuaded that it does anything to further US interests in the region.  Israel was already a long standing ally.  So why now?

I began with Roy Moore and it seems fitting to finish with his failed election.  Mr. Trump originally had asked Moore to step down.  When he didn't, Mr. Trump switched his position and backed Moore.  These two decisions, backing Moore and moving the embassy, have resulted in Mr. Trump having only 32 percent approval rating. 

Hopefully lead Mr. Trump to take some other action as a means of regaining popularity.  North Korea remains extremely volatile and now China is making noise that will not remain on the fence in the event of an attack by the US.  With our attention so diverted, Russia has now started to build back up its nuclear arsenal as well as building bunkers.  Making it to the end of Mr. Trump's first term without a war is increasingly unlikely.