Saturday, January 10, 2015

No credible local threat

This has to be one of the dumbest statements I've seen lately;

No credible local threat after Paris attack - Local 12 WKRC-TV Cincinnati - News - Top Stories

We still delude ourselves into thinking fusion centers are going to spot all terrorists in advance of an attack.  The fusion centers and law enforcement catch the dumb ones, they ones that made mistakes. Ask yourself what the Parisian police would have said prior to the attack on Charlie Hebdo?

The most dangerous terrorists and terrorist groups are those that we haven't named yet.  Everyone is watching Al Qaeda and Daesh but how many new operatives have they been able to recruit?  Those operatives are highly unlikely to have criminal records or any other markers that will trigger fusion center software programs.  The terrorists most likely to commit the next attack here in the US are probably already US citizens are here on work visas.  They are regular members of their community and don't stick out.

The plea to report anything "suspicious" is ineffective.  What constitutes "suspicious" behavior?  How is "suspicious" behavior relative to terrorism different from "suspicious" behavior relative to plane old criminal activity?  Yes, that is the job of an intelligence analyst to sift through but it unnecessarily adds to the amount of data that has to be looked at.

DHS eliminated the color-coded system for threat levels because it was meaningless to the average American and no one really paid attention anyway.  There is very likely a cell, or at least a group of sympathizers, here in the greater Cincinnati area just based on the size of the metropolitan area.

A better question is why isn't there a credible threat?  Wright-Patterson AFB is 50 miles north and Ft Campbell (home of the 101st Airborne) is about 4 hours south.  GE aircraft engines and P&G are just two of the many corporations that are headquartered here in Cincinnati.  We have the Bengals and Reds sports franchises and the 2015 MLB All Star game will be held here.  The Ohio River moves 11.7 million tons of freight per year.  Interstate routes I-75, I-71 and I-74 all converge in or near Cincinnati.

"No credible threat" means the analysts are thinking (at leas the they are willing to share) outside the box and if they aren't, how are average citizens suppose to know what to look out for?

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