Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Merkel's flight denied permission

Angela Merkel's flight to India was delayed as her flight was denied overflight of Iranian airspace. It appears this was in retaliation for the European Union's (EU) extension of economic sanctions against Iran for failing to continue talks about the Iranian nuclear weapons program. According to Fox News, Chancellor Merkel said "this action shows a disrespect for Germany and we will not accept it".

The whole incident was only reported as a ticker item on Fox News. However, the emotion of both Iran and Germany can spell further deteriorations in that region. We have two very proud cultures snipping at other. First, we have the Persians (now known as Iran) re-asserting itself as a world player only to be smacked down by the upstart Europeans and Americans. Second, Germany is a proud race of warriors who seem to be re-emerging on the world front. In the past, Germany was reluctant to send combat forces into conflicts. That reluctance seems to be diminishing opening the door for two proud cultures to start staring at one another with more than diplomatic actions in mind.

Update, here is an article on the report.
Breitbart

Pentagon: Cyber Attacks Can Count as Act of War - FoxNews.com



Cyberwarfare units were just standing up as I was retiring in 2007. The question always seemed to be was "cyber" a war in the same way as tanks and bombs? In one sense, absolutely as the Stuxnet showed you can attack a country's entire power grid and cripple their economy. Through cyber you can shutdown the cooling systems of a nuclear power plant creating a Chernobyl or Fukushima scenario via proxy. If "cyber" can be a war then what response is justified? Even a cyber counter attack against the host nation may be too much. For example, what if the hacker resides in France but his allegiance is to Al Qaeda?

Now apparently the Pentagon wants to do what it does best; blow stuff up and kill people in retaliation for cyber attacks. The first problem is what do you bomb? If they attack our nuclear power plants but have none of their own, do go after their crops? Let's pretend the terrorist is a member of the Islamic Brotherhood and is from Egypt. He is living in Indonesia and launches his attack from there using a code designed in part by Iran. The answer to the question is not clear cut and can rapidly lead to escalation. It also means we may have to rethink the traditional terms like "enemy" and realize a few hackers could successfully attack a whole country.

FoxNews.com

14 dead in Germany as cucumber crisis grows

More than two weeks after the food poisoning outbreak was first reported in northern Germany, the number of confirmed and suspected cases has reached 1,200, according to media reports.

The magnitude of this outbreak seems excessive to be simply an accident of poor hygiene. Yet no one seems to be talking about the possibility of this being a terrorist attack of some kind. Food supplies afford a terrorist a double strike. First of course is the fear of the food supply being contaminated with something that could make your very sick or kill you. The second strike is the impact to the economy as farmers and grocers are left with unsold produce.

Holland, Spain and Germany are still very much agrarian economies and the impact will be severe. Our food systems are still one of the easiest to target. Produce especially can be contaminated along many different points along the transportation route to the store. Governments do not have the resources and infrastructure to protect all of the produce coming out of countries such as the United States. Buying local or growing your own greatly reduces the possibility of contamination but restaurant chains still will buy bulk produce from outside the local area. More outbreaks will occur with the increase volatility in the Middle East. This is not to say Middle Eastern or Islamic groups are responsible but unrest in that region provides the perfect cover for other groups such as domestic terrorists.

Yahoo! News

Monday, May 30, 2011

Israel Minister: Strike on Iran Could Be Necessary - FoxNews.com

Let's review; as a result of the 1967 war Israel nearly tripled its territory. As the United States discovered with Native Americans, placing indigenous people on reservations or encampments creates resentment. This is not to excuse the tactics of Palestinian terrorists. On the contrary, their tactics are as much a reason why they are still a displaced people as any Israeli policy. My point was to put their actions into context.

Presiden Obama stated two weeks ago that the pre-1967 borders are the starting point for negotiations. His comments were not embraced by Israel or American Jews. Prime Minister Netanyahu appeared before Congress to basically say the Israeli borders are staying right where they are at.

Now with Iran taking over as the head of OPEC comes the news of the need for a strike. Iran has not overtly threatened the United States but the Secretary of State has consider the potentiality of nuclear weapons in Iran to be unacceptable. It now begs the question if the United States and Israel are collaborating in dealing with the Iranian nuclear program?

FoxNews.com

Obama nominates Dempsey to chair Joint Chiefs

It will be interesting to see the direction of the war in Afghanistan with an Army general taking over as the Chief of the JCS and Leon Panetta becoming the Sec Def. I'm not hopeful this means a swift end to combat operations.

Obama nominates Dempsey to chair Joint Chiefs

Sunday, May 29, 2011

Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya

The US troop withdrawal from Iraq created a corresponding increase in violence. The killing of Osama bin Laden has generated a similar increase with reports of a bomb blast killing 7 US troops. Earlier this week, China stated that it would not tolerate any US military action in Pakistan. At the same time, China and North Korea renewed their vow to maintain their support for one another even as leaders change in future years.

While the Untied States continues to remain silent about the future of Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan), the rest of the Middle East continues to rather violently reinvent itself. Yemen is the latest for the Day of Rage. Islamic militants have seized a coastal city and Yemen appears to be the latest to have a major change of government led by rebels.

The French are helping to lead change in Libya by bombing Qaddafi's compound. British, French and other Nato forces were on Saturday night preparing a two-pronged blitz to try to finish off Col Gaddafi as already slender hopes for a peaceful resolution to the Libyan crisis faded. All the while, NATO and the US really has no idea who will take over after Qaddafi. The US and European track record for selecting and installing new leaders in the range is less than impressive.

September will mark the tenth anniversary of 9/11. For some reason, the tenth is more poignant than the ninth much as the 25th will be more poignant than the 24th. Given that, this is the year that we could see a renewed effort to execute a major terrorist attack in US soil. The Middle East is now more unified (despite the violence) than it ever has been and along with the US killing of Osama bin Laden, an attack seems more likely than ever.

According to Osam bin Laden's files, he was plotting an attack on our railroads. Anything from passenger rail to freight carrying hazardous chemicals or nuclear fuel rods could be a target.

Less we forget, several politician (including Arnie) have demonstrated a complete contempt for their responsibilities while in office. Gov Schwarzenegger's policies have led over 37,000 prisoners to be set free from prisons. Corrupt politicians are always a good motivation for protest and rebellion. We need to also be concerned about an attack from a domestic group fed up with the state of US politics.

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Middle East & North Africa - Iran sets stage for tense Opec meeting

Ah, the plot thickens; Iran's Ahmademijad is the first head of state to run OPEC since he temporarily place himself as oil minster. OPEC has a rotating presidency and it is now Iran's turn. Saudi Arabia has increased production to offset the drop from Libya but the Saudis are skittish. Crude oil price rose to $125 a barrel in April but dropped to $112 on Wednesday. The fall is the biggest on record. Given the US military involvement and less than warm relations with Iran makes this meeting especially critical to US energy needs.

FT.com